MLB DFS Slate Preview - August 4
I try again after my worst DFS advice of the year
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So last night went perfectly wrong. Everything I said was wrong. Not even wrong, but exactly the opposite of the correct advice. The Rays went off for 13 runs, Schlittler had his worst start, and I was buried from the jump. But there’s always a new day! Let’s get it back tonight.
Game Data
Rays vs. Gabriel Hughes
Hughes is the Rockies best starting pitcher. It’s a small sample size, but it does not look close as things currently stand:
Here are more numbers on Hughes:
He has a .237 xwOBA allowed at home, which is even smaller sample, but fading stacks against him has worked every single time so far. Maybe the field will catch on, but I’m going back to the Rays fade wagon in tourneys tonight.
Rangers vs. Blade Tidwell
Big +1.32 on the Rangers tonight (implied vs. season average). Blade has some decent stuff. 102.8 Stuff+, 15% K-BB% in a very small sample size.
He has had to pitch mostly in the Pacific Coast League, which we’ve talked about a lot here this year. That’s a brutal place to pitch, and you shouldn’t even bother looking at ERAs and WHIPs there. But here are the numbers so you can bother:
A 4.37 ERA and a 14% K-BB% is very good for the PCL. Here’s his pitch mix from MLB data:
It all looks kinda fine. I think the guy is a lot better than the markets are giving him credit for, so I’m balking a bit at this big implication from the Rangers.
Yankees vs. Hunter Dobbins?
Another somewhat unknown arm. Dobbins has found his way into the Cardinals rotation again, and he’ll stay there in all likelihood with Dustin May shipped to Milwaukee.
Dobbins has decent stuff, I’ve always kinda liked him. But he’s like an SP4 at best, so the Yankees can probably do some damage here with their upgrade lineup. Will Heliot Ramos make it in time? Probably. It’s a reasonable spot for the Yankees, but they aren’t popping for me.
Dodgers vs. Javier Assad
The Dodgers taking on our guy Mexico Afghanistan. Assad
Assad gives up some dingers, especially to lefties. The Dodgers did not upgrade their lineup, those cheap asses, but it’s a good spot for LA with some winds blowing out in Wrigley. They get most of the game O/U on their side, swinging the bats in support of Tarik Skubal. They’re expensive, of course.
Red Sox vs. Davis Martin
The wheels have fallen off for Martin. He’s bad again, and the Red Sox are good again. Lower ownership here as well, and the Red Sox are at home for Adley Rutschman’s debut.
I still don’t think it’s a smash stack, but they’re a part of my approach for sure. Ceddanne Rafaela is on an absolute tear, and this is a big series for both teams.
Twins vs. Randy Dobnak
Dobnak has some magic cooking. Just 14 strikeouts in 26 innings, but a 1.04 ERA, but a 4.85 SIERA.
This can’t go on for long! It’s a fine spot for the Twins, although they’re still a pretty weak lineup without Buxton.
Braves vs. Ryan Gusto
Gusto gets hit hard by lefties:
So that’s the approach for the Braves. Olson + Albies + Baldwin and such.
Mariners vs. ???
We don’t yet know how the Tigers will arrange this rotation. In the projections right now it still says Casey Mize, and he has left town. So I can’t really give you the matchup details, but the 4.61 run implication prices in whoever the books think is starting, and that’s a decent mark for the M’s.
TEAM PROJECTIONS
So the Rockies look nice in the projections in the debut against Freddy Peralta. If the Rays were going to tinker with Peralta, I’m not sure that they’ll have had the time to do that yet. Peralta’s been bad, and he’s probably not going to have a good go of it in Coors tonight.
The D’Backs have a very nice matchup against Randy Vasquez, but that Padres bullpen did not get worse yesterday, so that’s a consideration - Vasquez is probably a 3-4 inning guy at this point.
Another ERA slayer is Eduardo Rodriguez, one of the biggest gaps in his SIERA minus ERA in the league there, and the Padres have some nice right-handed bats to do some damage. I think that’s sneaky.
So the stacks I like:
Braves vs. Gusto (lefties)
Rockies vs. Peralta
Dodgers vs. Assad
Yankees vs. Dobbins
Red Sox vs. Martin
Twins vs. Dobnak