MLB DFS Slate Preview - August 7
A close look at the big 12-game slate for Friday night
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The Pirates are mega cooked, which is what I love DFS so much. No matter what your favorite team is doing or how your season long fantasy team(s) are doing, you’ve got life in DFS the whole way until the last day of the season.
DFS players probably know the game better than anybody else. We’re examing every team every day. It gives us a pretty big edge in other spots too, I think, so let’s get into this big Friday night 12-gamer.
Weather
Braves at Yankees
ORANGE/YELLOW - Looks a bit more active around NY. Pretty good chance for a delay in my eyes, and a PPD wouldn’t shock me. We’ll need to see how things are lining up later this afternoon to know more.
Guardians at White Sox
YELLOW - Hrm. Really low rain chances from the National Weather Service (and they are pretty smart), but... my preferred high-resolution model pops a fast moving line of storms in the area this evening, which could cause a delay. I’ll leave this at YELLOW, and see if models keep the rain chances all day or decide start trending down.
Shout out to Kevin Roth for making his stuff free for us this year!
The Atlanta/NY game is of interest. I think we’d like some Yankees bats and would be considering Max Fried in that spot, but we might have to back off in favor of other less-risky spots on this big slate.
Game Info
Three biggest implications:
Red Sox vs. Perkins
Cubs at Lynch/KC Bullpen
Dodgers at Merrill Kelly
Red Sox continue to smash the ball, and they line up here behind Payton Tolle as a -261 favorite. That’s crazy stuff, but it’s a big-time mismatch with one of the hottest teams taking one of the coldest.
There are worse pitchers than Perkins. He has an 18% K-BB%, but he does give up a lot of fly balls. His fastball is bad with a .374 xwOBA allowed, so the Red Sox will get some pitches to jump on.
I’d rather fade that chalk stack if forced to choose. It’s not in a super hitter friendly park, the pitcher is at least decent, and the Red Sox, despite their recent run of things, aren’t the highest-upside lineup up and down the board.
Interesting spot for the Cubs. Daniel Lynch has had a fine season as a reliever. His K% is low, but he’s limited damage well. He’s only in there for an inning or two, so the Cubs will see a ton of one of the worst bullpens in the game.
You can load up on Cubs, but at least in these bullpen games the opposition can choose their matchups which helps them.
Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly
Kelly continues to be one of the worst starters in the game. 4.64 JA SIERA on a 6.5% K-BB%. It’s been better lately, but I don’t think he’ll have a fun time on the mound tonight against the Dodgers lineup which is getting hot in a hurry. Ohtani looks better, Kyle Tucker is very hot, and they’re a pretty healthy lineup right now.
Other teams with high implications:
Cardinals vs. Feltner (in STL though)
Marlins vs. Klassen
Brewers vs. Zebby
Nothing to fall in love with here. Klassen is back in the Majors. He has good stuff but hasn’t had much success with it. It’s fine for the Fish, but this isn’t like a total gas can who has no business being in the Majors.
And then Zebby just struck out ten Mariners last time. I’d still load up on some Brewers hitters in a few spots, Zebby can be very prone to the long ball and has seen his strikeout rate take a dive prior to last time.
Pitchers to pick on
Cleveland vs. Noah Schultz
Cleveland comes in at just 4.32 implied runs, but Schultz is awful with a 4.83 xERA this year on a 9.4% K-BB%
Rockies vs. Kyle Leahy
Leahy has a bad xERA, but gets the job done at home (2.95 ERA, 0.33 HR/9). So I guess I don’t want to use any Road Rockies there.
Tigers vs. Adrian Houser
Bad park, but a really hot Tigers offense against a really bad pitcher. That’s a sneaky stack spot, you’re just going to have to get the points without the benefit of multiple dingers
TOUGHEST PARKS TO HIT MULTIPLE HOMERS IN
I went ahead and found how many instances there have been at each park of a team hitting multiple homers. The top five:
ATH 58
WSH 54
HOU 50
CHC 46
PHI 46
The bottom five:
LAA 26
SF 26
DET 25
MIA 24
STL 23
We like homers a lot for DFS, and on this slate STL & SF prove to be what we thought they were - very tough places to hit homers in.
The best ownership + implied total + implied over average spot on the board looks to be the CARDINALS against Feltner and the Rockies bullpen. Good prices on the Cardinals too.
Pitchers
Pitchers projecting above 15 points:
Nathan Eovaldi ($9500) vs. BAL
The Orioles don’t hit much. And Eovaldi is a very good pitcher who has the top projection on the board. Pretty high ownership projection there, but it’s pretty spread out tonight without a runaway SP1 on the board.
Parker Messick ($9200) vs. CWS
The White Sox have a pretty deep lineup, and they’ve seen Messick before. But Messick projects well here at 19.5 points with a 2.1x value.
Logan Gilbert ($10,000) vs. TB
Tough matchup for Ks, but he’s at home where he’s pitched so well.
Home/road on Gilbert since May 15th:
Pretty, pretty good!
Payton Tolle ($9,000) vs. ATH
One of the best matchups you can find in baseball right now is the Athletics outside of California. Check out the A’s splits:
Not a single yellow or green xwOBA mark there with some big time K rates after the top three guys. And Tolle is one of the best pitchers in the league under the hood. Elite spot for Tolle and I’m piling onto him, it doesn’t look like he’ll be mega-owned, and he’s the biggest favorite on the board (by a lot).
Drew Rasmussen ($9700) vs. Mariners
He gets the elite park factor here, but he’s really expensive. The workload limitations are pretty much a thing of the past. He’s gone over 90 pitches in three straight and has gone seven innings four times since June began. I think it’s a fine play. But I like some other guys for a little bit cheaper more.
Max Fried ($8,700) vs. Braves
The Braves can be had by lefties. Fried worked up to 5.2 innings last time and he’s been so, so good all year. He didn’t miss a beat after the IL stint. He’s not given up a barrel since returning and still remains with just one homer given up all year. But the rain could be a big issue there.
George Klassen ($5,000) vs. MIA
The model likes Klassen, and at $5K I think you have to mix him for tourneys. They’ve been putting him to work in the minors recently too:
90+ pitches in five straight. 24 strikeouts in his last three. That’s against AAA teams, of course, but like I said above - the kid has good stuff.
Minor league pitch data:
Big 97mph fastball with a really good-looking slider.
We saw him get beaten up in the Majors early on this year when he just could not throw a strike. But that was back in early April when guys were just getting it going. His pitch mix in the MLB on those 145 pitches:
The changeup and slider have good Stuff+ and his fastball got some whiffs. The Marlins are a good matchup for him. This is a pretty high-ceiling spot for a $5K pitcher. This is one of the best tourney spots of the year.
Kevin Gausman ($8,500) vs. KC
Gausman is going to enjoy the Cubs defense behind him, and this is a good matchup for him in his Cubs debut. Gotta like that. My projection of 15 points is too low, I think this Cubs team will do a lot of good for him and his ground ball ways.
The pitchers by value:
Not sure if we’ve had a 3x value pitch all season, so there’s one here with Klassen. You’d be pretty bold to play him in cash since we don’t have a Coors or Sacramento must-stack situation. But he’s a tourney priority for me no doubt about it. There’s no way the 3% ownership actually happens once some people start talking him up, I can’t be the only one seeing this.
Ronel Blanco ($7000) vs. SD is here as well. He’s usually good for a handful of strikeouts, but he’s not a good overall pitcher. I could see a pretty big score for the price, so he’d be in my larger player pool, but there are problems with it - and there are plenty of pitchers to like tonight.
TOP PLAYS - CASH
Eovaldi vs. BAL
Gilbert vs. TB
Tolle vs. ATH
Rasmussen vs. SEA
Klassen vs. MIA
TOP PLAYS - TOURNEYS
Fading all the high-ownership guys:
Gausman vs. KC
Fried vs. ATL
Klassen vs. MIA
Blanco vs. SD
Sasaki vs. ARI
But of course, you can use the cash guys in tourneys too. I guess I wouldn’t do it if playing a 10,000+ entry contest, but there you go - something to work with.
Hitters
Top projected lineups when looking only at the 1-5 hitters:
So we get a couple of hits here that weren’t in the implied totals discussion.
Brewers vs. Zebby (covered this already)
Dodgers vs. Kelly (covered this already)
Rangers vs. Shane Baz
D’Backs vs. Roki Sasaki
Baz & Sasaki have both been better lately than their season-long numbers suggest. I particularly don’t want to pick on Sasaki with how he’s looked lately. But there’s some value in the healthy Rangers lineup going up against Baz.
I don’t know if the Texas park factor is actually shifting, but check this out.
HR/Brl in Texas
March-June: 47%
July-August: 59%
The warmer temps would explain a lot of that. Since July 1st, the SLUGGING PERCENTAGE on line drives & fly balls there is .895 - the seventh-highest in baseball. So this isn’t a park to totally avoid anymore, and I think we have a sneaky stack with the Rangers lineup there. Pederson + Langford + Seager + Nimmo + Burger is a top five with a lot of pop.
TOP PLAYS BY POSITION
Catcher
Favorite cash plays
Moises Ballesteros $2800 vs. Tyler Phillips
Should probably give the cheap Angels lineup some tourney love as well against Phillips and the crappy Miami bullpen
Carson Kelly $3500 vs. Lynch / Royals BP
William Contreras $4500 vs. Zebby
Ivan Herrera $4200 vs. Feltner
First Base
Joc Pederson $3300 vs. Baz
44% pinch hit risk
Nolan Schanuel $3200 vs. Phillips
Alec Burleson $4800 vs. Feltner
Jake Burger $3500 vs. Baz
Shohei Ohtani $6400 vs. Kelly
Jake Bauers $4700 vs. Zebby
Second Base
Brice Turang $5200 vs. Zebby
JJ Wetherholt $4900 vs. Feltner
Royce Lewis $4000 vs. Drohan
Jake Cronenworth $3000 vs. Blanco
Nick Sogard $3100 vs. Perkins
Third Base
Kevin McGonigle $4900 vs. Houser
Manny Machado $5200 vs. Blanco
Isaac Paredes $4000 vs. Ray
Alex Bregman $4300 vs. Lynch
Max Muncy $5300 vs. Kelly
Jose Ramirez $5000 vs. Schultz
Angel Genao $2300 vs. Schultz
Kyle Karros $3000 vs. Leahy
Shortstop
Kevin McGonigle $4900 vs. Houser
Corey Seager $4500 vs. Baz
Nico Hoerner $3800 vs. Lynch/Royals BP
Jeremy Pena $5000 vs. Ray
Cooper Pratt $3700 vs. Zebby
Geraldo Perdomo $4100 vs. Sasaki
Super ugly shortstop position tonight. Cooper Pratt has been great lately, he can walk, get a bunch of base knocks, and steal bases. I just wish he weren’t buried in the lineup. But it’s a good position to pay down for.
Outfield
Little easier to break down the outfield by price point since we have to play three of these guys.
$5000+
Shohei Ohtani $6400 vs. Kelly
Jackson Chourio $5400 vs. Zebby
Pete Crow-Armstrong $6300 vs. Lynch + Royals BP
Mike Trout $5200 vs. Phillips
Fernando Tatis $6200 vs. Blanco
$4000-$5000
Jake Bauers $4700 vs. Zebby
Wyatt Langford $4400 vs. Baz
Garrett Mitchell $4200 vs. Zebby
Wilyer Abreu $4800 vs. Perkins
Kyle Tucker $4000 vs. Kelly
$3000-$4000
Austin Martin $3100 vs. Drohan
Evan Carter $3200 vs. Baz
Luis Lara $3500 vs. Zebby
Brandon Nimmo $3800 vs. Baz
$2000-$3000
Dylan Beavers $2700 vs. Eovaldi
Josh Lowe $2500 vs. Phillips
Grant McCray $2500 vs. Montero
Owen Caissie $2900 vs. Klassen
Bryan Torres $3000 vs. Feltner
Masataka Yoshida $3000 vs. Perkins
CASH BUILD
I don’t know if people play cash, but even if you don’t, I think it’s useful to show you who I think the best plays are and how they fit together.
Didn’t come together perfectly. I’d rather have Burleson at 1B, but the price is kinda high. I don’t like playing Pederson and his pinch-hit risk, but $3300 leading off against Baz is enough, and Baltimore only has two available lefties, so we might get 4 ABs from Pederson.
Can’t really play Ohtani without going down in price at SP or punting at a hitter spot. Alternatively:
Getting Angel Genao in there for $2300 makes it easier. Not thrilled with the Perdomo play, but he could certainly take a walk or two and swipe a bag against Sasaki to make it work.
Hope these thoughts are helpful; here’s to a big night!