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Weather
Five game slate starting at noon-thirty eastern.
Weather looks fine. We’ve got 85 degrees temps in Cincinnati, so we’ll probably end up going to that game quite a bit.
Game Info
ORIOLES vs. RYAN JOHNSON
Johnson has been mostly bad, but he has some good outings as well, and the Orioles lineup is not the best. But the 6.15-run implication shows you what the markets think about Johnson and the Angels bullpen.
Johnson has an 8.1% K-BB% with a 4.71 xERA and just a 35% GB%. He’s allowed an .866 OPS.
REDS vs. MASON BARNETT
The Reds get a bad Athletics starter, and that bullpen is a problem spot as well. Barnett has pitched to a 23% K% and a 10% BB% in limited time (about 30 innings) with a .735 OPS allowed on a 37% GB%. His stuff isn’t too bad, but it’s a great spot for the Reds at home with the hot temperatures going on.
Those two offenses clear the field by a good bit, and that’s where the ownership is going as well, obviously.
The rest of the pitchers on the slate are mostly good. Or at least not easy to pile up on runs against. We’ll see that next.
Pitchers
David Peterson is the lowest projection, so you might kind of like the Blue Jays. But they very rarely do damage, and Peterson has one thing he’s very good at - limiting the home run. He’s given up a 41.2 PA/HR this year with just a .754 OPS allowed on his 50% GB%. He’s posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with the Cubs, but he has given up a 1.36 HR/9 in 33 innings.
But his last four starts have been really good. A 1.52 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP with the Cubbies. Their elite defense has helped him out. He struck out eight Yankees last time. He has been mixing his pitches up a little bit more, evening up the slider/curveball usage behind his sinker and four-seamer. Even at his worst, he’s been a not-great option for stacking against. The Blue Jays lineup is rough right now, so I would use a righty or two in there for value but I don’t think you’re stacking against Peterson, which is rare since he’s the lowest projected pitcher on the board.
Dylan Cease ($10,500) is still chepaer than you’d think. He’s the top projection on the board by a ton. It’s an easy matchup against a good Cubs lineup, but that’s a lineup that has been better against lefties (.799 OPS vs. .735 against righties). He’s the only unquestioned stud on the board, so he’s a staple of your DFS lineups today unless you’re fully fading chalk with no other questions being asked.
Dustin May ($7,000) is the #2 projection on the board against a scuffling Pirates lineup. He’ll make his Brewers debut here, and he’s probably a cash play with Cease. But you can’t really trust the guy. He has a 4.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 15.54% K-BB%. His best skill is the 0.58 HR/9, which helps, but he’s still been under 15 fantasy points in three of his last five and he’s been under ten points on eight occasions this year. Not safe, but at the price, he’s a good play.
Braxton Ashcraft ($8,700) is the third-best projection, but the third-most expensive pitcher on the slate. It’s not a great projection against a Brewers offense that makes life tough, and he’s been in rough shape since July started. But I think he’s in the mix for your tourney entries.
Andrew Abbott ($8,000) projects well, relatively, against an Athletics team that will throw a lineup out that looks something like this:
You can kinda just look at the prices and see the quality of a lineup. The only guy above $4500 is Soderstrom, who has to face a lefty here. Abbott is a great streamer for fantasy leagues today and definitely a DFS play.
Nolan McLean ($9,000) doesn’t project super well here (16 points, 1.77x value), but the upside is there with him when he’s on. The Guards lineup is in better shape these days with J-Ram back, Adell added, and DeLauter + Kwan really doing a nice job again.
I’m never thrilled to play McLean, but he’s definitely the #2 upside arm behind Cease.
Brandon Young ($7,500) gets an elite matchup with the Angels. Young has held his own in the rotation, and this is about as good as it gets for his chances.
In a stupidly small sample size since the trade deadline, the Angels have a .505 OPS with just two homers hit and a 35% K%. YIKES.
So it’s a good day to stream some starters in for your fantasy teams. I like Abbott, Young, and even David Peterson just in this little five-game slate we’re talking about this morning.
Foster Griffin ($8,500) gets the Mets for his first start as a Clevelander. Not a good projection at all (1.7x value is the second-worst on the board), but we’ve seen what Griffin can do with his deep pitch mix and locations, so he could have a very good outing here and end up being an optimal choice despite the projection.
CASH: CEASE & MAY
GPP: CEASE, MAY, MCLEAN, ABBOTT, YOUNG, ASHCRAFT, PETERSON
Hitters
Top projections:
You’ll want to lean into the Reds + Orioles if you aren’t worried about the ownership. Elly and Sal are on top here. The Cubs are probably the best lineup on the slate, but they have the toughest matchup lined up against Cease. Not crazy to stack them anyways in a large-field tourney, but maybe it kind of is. Cease has given up more than three runs just four times all season and he’s allowed an elite 0.66 HR/9 in addition to his 26% K-BB%.
Top values:
This will be my first chance to play Hector Rodriguez, and I’ll be taking it. $2200 for a guy with a lot of power, decent discipline, and some speed. And look at Ke’Bryan Hayes here with a 6.25-point projection!
Dylan Beavers $2800 should be the lead-off man against Ryan Johnson, pretty great spot for him.
Angel Genao $2000 is a Guardians prospect who debuted yesterday and collected four hits. He hit 13 bombs with an .875 OPS in the minors this year adding 11 steals. Just a 16% K% down there, so he’s a decent hitting prospect to know (22 years old), and we get a minimum price on him today.
Your low-owned stacks to take a shot on:
Mets vs. Griffin
Athletics vs. Abott
Angels vs. Young
Guardians vs. McLean
I just don’t have a lot of trust in those SPs, so it’s decent leverage using those offenses while the field goes heavily to the Reds and Orioles.
TOP PLAYS BY POSITION
Catcher
Francisco Alvarez $3300
Tyler Stephenson $3200
Jonah Heim $3600
First Base
Sal Stewart $4900
Pete Alonso $5500
Eric Wagaman $2200
Second Base
Brice Turang $5400
Vaughn Grissom $3600
Travis Bazzana $4600
Matt McLain $3100
Shortstop
Elly De La Cruz $5900
Zach Neto $4700
Francisco Lindor $4300
Gunnar Henderson $5000
Third Base
Kazuma Okamoto $3900
Bo Bichette $4000
CES $4100
Tommy White $2600
Outfield
Mike Trout $5200
JJ Bleday $4400
AJ Ewing $3900
Dylan Beavers $2800
Jake Mangum $3600
Chase DeLauter $4300
Steven Kwan $3400
Luis Robert $3500
Dane Myers $2500
Henry Bolte $3200
The Athletics have plenty of righties in a good spot against Abbott in Cincy. None of them are great or reliable, but the projections like Heim, White, and Bolte a good bit for their prices.
A quick cash lineup that comes together to get you started:
SP1 Cease
SP2 McLean
C Heim
1B Sal Stewart
2B Gonzales
3B White
SS Elly
OF Hector Rodriguez
OF Beavers
OF Bleday
That’s what I threw together. The projected optimal:
SP Cease
SP May
C Alvarez
1B Stewart
2B Grissom
3B Okamamoto
SS Elly De La Cruz
OF Springer
OF Beavers
OF Ewing
Hope this helps, wanted to get something out early this morning since the five-game slate is the biggest one we have today.