Last four-game slate of the season. It’s the last one we could consider a “full slate”, and it’s pretty thin with just the four games. Let’s break it down and get ready for the 4pm eastern first pitch.
Game Data
Dodgers vs. Mahle
White Sox vs. Espino/Guards Bullpen
Yankees vs. Martinez
Those are the top three. It’s hard to fall in love with any offense in October. Scoring is down, every team implies at or below their season average. The bullpens will be active, and a couple of teams have their back against the wall. Let’s go quickly game-by-game and see what we can figure out.
Guardians vs. White Sox
Bullpen game on both sides. The Guardians are down 0-2, so Messick is certainly in play if they think that’s their best path forward. He’s $8,800, which is tough for a guy who you’d think would be 2-4 innings. But maybe he shuts ‘em down for three innings and grabs a win in a tight game. It’s not crazy. But if you’re playing for the “most likely”, he’s not in the mix.
You’ll see a lot of different looks and the teams will play their best matchups. From what I’m seeing, there are just two lefties in each bullpen. Righty/lefty splits aren’t big on these two teams. But I’m sure the Guardians would like that lefty-lefty advantage when Murakami is at the plate. But he hit his homers off of them, too.
Lineups & Projections:
Matchups model:
If you believe in momentum and HOTNESS, the White Sox are a play. They have been the key to a couple different DFS slates already. The vibes are high, and they’re not up against a shutdown starter in this one.
For “cash” or single entry stuff, there are no pitchers to go to. I do think some White Sox plays are solid. Vargas is really expensive, but nobody else is overly burdensome with the price.
Dodgers vs. Braves
The Braves might have to get Chris Sale in there even after he went five innings last night. That’s a tough ask of a 37-year-old, but I’m sure he’s willing and eager to get another shot at it this offseason.
But they didn’t need much help behind Tyler Mahle last time. He went seven strong against the Phillies in the Wild Card round, and he’s been phenomenal as a Brave. This is a tough spot facing the Dodgers. But he can neutralize them with the splitter if he has it going, which he has since the trade. Ohtani isn’t much of a threat right now, either. The Dodgers seem to have a knack for getting the big hit, and their lineup is deep - but it’s not as nasty of a lineup as it’s been in the past when they were younger and had a healthy Ohtani at it.
Tyler Glasnow at $10,800 with a 2-1 lead is a priority play. He’s so, so good, and they won’t have to panic and take him out if he’s in a little bit of hot water early on. He’s better than the guys that would come in from the bullpen. I don’t see them going to Skubal in this one since they have the one-game cushion and a home game to close it out on Friday if they need it. But he’s rested enough to come in and try to slam the door. It’s not like they won’t feel perfectly comfortable going Snell + Yamamoto to open the NLCS series if they make it. But I like Glasnow a lot.
Lineups & Projections:
Matchups model:
It’s tough to play either side of this one. But Mahle is still a guy with a poor history. Sometimes the splitter isn’t there, and he becomes very hittable. We should play some Dodgers stacks; they’re the top implied team and it’s not an every-time shutdown starter across from them.