Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
RUN PURE SPORTS PROMO
RPS is one of the premier sites on the Internet for MLB DFS. Projections, tons of tools, and an unmatched Discord community that is active for every slate. Sign up today at runpuresports.com to get an even sharper edge, and use code “PGH25” at checkout for 25% off your first payment.
Game Info
Ten-game slate, let’s hit the best spots for offense.
Blue Jays vs. Jack Perkins
6.18 implied, +2.12 above season average run scoring
The Blue Jays are in Sacramento this week, and they are very cheap for an offense in such an improved run-scoring environment. Perkins has given up 12 homers at home this year, and has a 7.04 ERA in Sacramento this year. That’s a 1.96 HR/9, so that’s a huge issue for him.
The interesting thing about Perkins is that his K% (25.4%) and BB% (9.8%) are somewhat solid there. He’s not the easiest dude in the league to hit, but offenses are usually finding ways to get a ball or two out of the yard against him in Sac town.
Yankees vs. Gabriel Hughes
6.18 implied, +2.02
This one is in New York, which makes me less interested and a little more confused about the implied total. The big news here is that Aaron Judge is back. Who knows if he’ll have it right away, he did not go on a rehab stint at all, so it’s been almost 3.5 months since he’s played in a real baseball game. Great spot for him to return to, though.
Hughes has an 18% K%, 8.7% BB%, 41% GB%, 4.23 JA SIERA this year. It’s been worse lately, and he has a very poor 15% on the road this season. He doesn’t get whiffs (9% SwStr%), but also doesn’t give up a ton of homers with a decent GB% and low .295 xwOBA. So I’m not thrilled to stack the Yankees, but getting Judge back is huge and should lift this whole lineup as we head toward October.
Dodgers vs. Nick Lodolo
6.18 implied, 1.36
He just doesn’t have it this year. An 18% K% against righties, 19% against lefties, .371 xwOBA against righties, .388 against lefties. It’s all bad, so the Dodgers are in a good spot with Ohtani back in the lineup, Edman crushing, and Teoscar Hernandez looking sharp again. It’s a very good lineup to stack against a lefty right now.
Padres vs. Riley Cornelio
5.22 implied, +1.09
This game’s in San Diego, which is bad for the Padres offense. Cornelio is an opener, but the Nationals bullpen is really bad behind him and he’s been awful this year in his own right with 23 strikeouts and 21 walks in 22.2 innings.
Pretty good spot for the Padres, although the Nats will be able to pick their matchups with this bullpen game going on.
Mariners vs. Cody Bradford
4.61 implied, +0.68
This one’s in Seattle, another bad spot for the home team. But Cody Bradford has just 16 strikeouts in 30.1 innings in his six starts. A 1.2 HR/9, a 4.45 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP. He’s so, so easy to hit. He’s given up 41 hits in 30.1 innings. Maybe he won’t give up multiple homers here, but the hits come in bunches, and I like the Mariners in tourneys once again.
Favorite Stacks
The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Dodgers are projected for a bunch of ownership. But the fact that there are three top stacking spots here makes it so the ownership should not be anything we want to completely avoid.
Here’s my priority stacking list, with ownership in mind.
Mariners vs. Cody Bradford
Padres vs. Nationals Bullpen
Dodgers vs. Nick Lodolo
Blue Jays vs. Jack Perkins
Yankees vs. Gabriel Hughes
You could also throw in the Brewers vs. David Peterson. They could rack up 10+ hits tonight and come through as a stack, but they’re a low-homer projection tonight, even more than normal.