MLB DraftKings Analysis 9/23
I missed Tuesday, I apologize. I suspect there is not nearly the demand for MLB DFS right now, so I think I will be forgiven for this. Let’s talk about tonight though, because I am INTO IT as I continue to battle Clint in the home league for spot in the finals.
Pitching
It seems to be a pay-up night at SP, which sucks because we have Coors Field on the slate. The top projections:
Shohei Ohtani $10,800 | 22.04
Gerrit Cole $10,500 | 21.99
Aaron Nola $9,300 | 20.99
Chris Bassitt $9,500 | 19.38
Lucas Giolito $7,700 | 17.62
Carlos Rodon $10,300 | 17.61
Jeffrey Springs $8,200 | 16.41
Louie Varland $5,600 | 13.83
Mitch White $7,300 | 13.69
Andrew Heaney $9,700 | 13.68
The top value pitcher is Louie Varland, but that’s a problem because the model just assumes he was a league-average pitcher given that we’ve only seen him twice in the Majors. I wouldn’t be into that unless we’re punting pitching in a GPP.
Giolito is the third-best value projection, but man I just can’t go there I don’t think. Here are some of the starts he’s had recently:
8/13 vs. DET - 20 points
8/24 vs. BAL - 19 points
8/30 vs. KC - 11 points
9/9 vs. OAK - 15 points
9/16 vs. DET - 14 points
At this point, he’s just proven himself to be a mediocre pitcher, and I don’t want to pay $7,700 for him.
I think the best way to go is just to jam in Aaron Nola with your choice of Cole or Ohtani. I prefer Ohtani because the Red Sox have seen so much of Cole, and Ohtani’s floor has been much higher than Cole’s this year - but the $300 difference could be a difference maker.
Team Offense
Since we’re going to spend a bunch of money on pitching, we have to find some cheap offensive targets. The top offenses in terms of projected runs above season average:
SD + 1.79
COL + 0.47
Those are the only offenses significantly above their season average
Some pitchers worth targeting based on the DK/PA scored by opposing offenses against them:
Ryan Feltner (vs. SD) - 2.06
Tommy Henry (vs. SF) - 1.99
Lucas Giolito (vs. DET) - 1.96
Louie Varland (vs. LAA) - 1.94
Mitch White (vs. TB) - 1.87
Sean Manaea (vs. COL) - 1.84
Cheap Hitting Spots
Righties have just mashed Lucas Giolito this year to the tune of a .327/.384/.574 line with an 8.0% Brl% and 16 homers in 359 PA. We were just here with the Tigers recently and it didn’t work out super great, but the prices are so low that I think it’s a good thing to try again. Most of the Tigers lineup right now is switch or left-handed, but Javier Baez ($3,600) stands out a bit. And I can’t complain about Kerry Carpenter ($2,600), Harold Castro ($2,000), or Jeimer Candelario ($2,000) either.
Position by Position Player Pools
Here are the top plays in my model and in my mind broken down by position. You’ll see their name, price, projection, and value mark below.
Catchers
Elias Diaz $3,600 | 8.24 | 2.29
J.T. Realmuto $5,400 | 8.40 | 1.56
Matt Thaiss $2,800 | 5.79 | 2.07
Seby Zavala $2,500 | 5.47 | 2.19
First Base
Albert Pujols $2,900 | 8.43 | 2.91
Paul Goldschmidt $5,800 | 11.76 | 2.03
C.J. Cron $5,200 | 10.37 | 1.99
Nate Lowe $4,100 | 7.97 | 1.94
Second Base
Gleyber Torres $4,100 | 8.10 | 1.98
Harold Castro $2,000 | 6.13 | 3.06
Jake Cronenworth $4,200 | 7.04 | 1.67
Third Base
Elehuris Montero $3,400 | 8.94 | 2.63
Nolan Arenado $5,200 | 10.28 | 1.98
Jeimer Candelario $2,000 | 6.56 | 3.28
Spencer Steer $3,000 | 7.13 | 2.38
Manny Machado $5,400 | 9.91 | 8.41
Shortstop
Ezequiel Tovar $2,000 | 7.46 | 3.73
Javier Baez $3,600 | 8.22 | 2.28
Outfield
Kerry Carpenter $2,600 | 8.78 | 3.38
Yonathan Daza $3,000 | 7.91 | 2.64
Austin Slater $3,100 | 7.90 | 2.55
Randal Grichuk $4,100 | 9.15 | 2.23
Jurickson Profar $3,700 | 8.31 | 2.25
Trayce Thompson $2,900 | 7.27 | 2.51
Aaron Judge $6,200 | 12.17 | 1.96
Yordan Alvarez $6,100 | 10.53 | 1.73
Mookie Betts $5,900 | 9.39 | 1.59
Kyle Tucker $5,200 | 8.97 | 3.38
Mike Trout $6,000 | 8.59 | 1.43
Nate Eaton $2,000 | 6.45 | 3.23
Garrett Hampson $2,100 | 7.13 | 3.40