MLB DW 2026 Projection Standouts
Looking at one guy from each position that my 2026 projection model is liking
The 2026 projections have been available to paid subs for a few weeks now, but I’ve been taking the time recently to fix some bugs and improve things. I still am not calling them the finished product, obviously, but they’re solid and usable for now.
As other free systems flow in (ATC, OOPSY, The Bat X), I’ll be continuing to develop tools to show off those projections and to compare them with my own model and do other cool and useful stuff. The tools will be better than ever this year, and I think a lot of you have already noticed that.
So let’s look at some early results and find a player at each position who my model is particularly a fan of.
Catcher - Drake Baldwin
MLBDW Projection: 497 PA, 65 R, 26 HR, 73 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.356/.524
You can read the full Drake Baldwin profile here.
I’ll be honest, the 26-homer projection is heavy. He hit 19 last year, and we aren’t projecting him for a ton more playing time this year. His pro career:
→ 2023: 16 HR in 476 PA
→ 2024: 16 HR in 551 PA
→ 2025: 19 HR in 446 PA
So I’m jacking him up to a sub-20 PA/HR even though he’s been at 30 for his career. I’ll bet against myself there, no doubt, but it does tell you something.
The projection model is doing some age curve action and also giving the man a little bit of credit for his skills. Baldwin posted a 106.3 EV90 and an 11% Brl% last year. That was in his first look at MLB pitching. So we think he can make a push into the 20s.
And that’s not even the best part about the guy’s profile. He’s a batting average stud. You won’t find many catchers (or players at any position for that matter) projecting for a .290 batting average. And it’s mostly justified with his 15% K% and .288 xBA from last year.
First Base - Nolan Schanuel
MLBDW Projection: 562 PA, 70 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, .264/.355/.407
Another “he’s that young?” guy, for whom we’re boosting the home run projection based on the aging curve. Schanuel has now seen 1,302 PAs in the Majors and has hit just 26 homers. That’s a 49.4 PA/HR in his career.
His second-percentile bat speed will always keep him away from 20+ homers, I think. But what he does extremely well is get balls in play. Tim’s fScore model grades him for a 114 discipline, a 108 hit tool, and an overall 101 grade.
If you’re in a points or OBP league, Schanuel is already pretty good even if he stays at a dozen homers next year. His 12.7% K% and 9.8% BB% last year were great. That’s a tiny gap between the two, and few other hitters can pull that off.
Schanuel doesn’t swing hard or hit the ball hard, but he does pull it in the air at a high rate, and he’ll get a ton of balls in play over a full season because he gives away so few PAs to the strikeout.
Second Base - Ketel Marte
MLBDW Projection: 619 PA, 94 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 6 SB, .281/.364/.522
Second base is so, so bad again this year. But Ketel Marte is so, so good.
I doubted his power output a little bit last year. I didn’t think he’d repeat the 36 homers from 2024. And he didn’t, but he did hit 28 in ten fewer games (126) while cutting three more points off of his strikeout rate and posting another strong OPS at .893.
The model’s in on him, and he’s the runaway #1 guy at second base again.
The projection might go up as well! The D’Backs are talking about trading him, and most other home parks would be an upgrade from Chase Field.
This is a “gimme” pick; nobody gets any use out of being told that Ketel Marte is a good fantasy pick. But a positive move in the park factors and the lack of other good hitters at the position might make him a pretty nice value in the third or fourth round, where he’s currently going on the NFBC.
Third Base - Noelvi Marte
MLBDW Projection: 475 PA, 63 R, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 14 SB, .254/.299/.445
If you stopped paying attention late last year, you missed some good stuff from Noelvi Marte. He got over an injury in July and went on to hit 11 homers in the final three months. He finished with a .263/.300/.448 slash line with 14 bombs and ten steals in about a half-season’s worth of PAs. You can do that kind of math. Fourteen times two is TWENTY-EIGHT. Ten times two is TWENTY. Both of those numbers are greater than or equal to TWENTY.
Marte cut his K% from 31% in 2024 to 23.6% in 2025. That’s a very good thing for him, and it allows the skills to show up more often.
There are still some issues for the 24-year-old:
→ 80.5% Zone-Contact%
→ 72.9% Contact%
→ .242 xBA
→ 33% Sweet Spot%
→ 12% Air Pull%
→ 46% GB%
Long story short, the batted ball profile isn’t very good on the launch angle and hit direction side.
The good news is that he’s super young, having just turned 24 in October. With the suspension and injuries, he’s been limited to just 724 MLB PAs. And the skills are great. High bat speed, high sprint speed. He’s a great athlete, and that’s earned him 3B/OF eligibility, which is very nice for a lot of fantasy leagues.
The projected PA is a bit low, but if he stays healthy, this is an everyday player for the Reds. With Ke’Bryan Hayes in town, he’ll be in the outfield. That’s a new position for him, so he’ll have to handle himself well enough out there to stick, but it seemed to work fine last year.
Over a 600 PA season, the model projects 25 bombs with 17 steals and that .254 batting average. Very solid, especially for where he’s going in drafts this year.
Shortstop - Ezequiel Tovar
MLBDW Projection: 625 PA, 81 R, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 7 SB, .266/.306/.465
[Read Full Tovar Preview Here]
Close your eyes and guess how Ezequiel Tovar is. I bet you said 26. But no, he’s 24. My model has been loving this guy for a couple of years now, but we’re right back on him for 2026.
Tovar dealt with injury issues for the first time last year, playing just 95 games. He wasn’t anything special in the box score in those 95 games, slugging just .400 with another sub-.300 OBP. He homered nine times and swiped five bags.
That’s nothing special. The good news is that he did the best work of his career in xwOBA (.330).
And that came at the same time as a career-best strikeout rate. Tovar posted a 105.3 EV90 with a 10% stolen base attempt rate. The guy has more power and speed than he’s given credit for.
He’s going to play every game he can stay healthy for in Colorado, he’s one of their few proven big league players. He’s bad for OBP leagues, don’t get me wrong, but he’s a nice value in standard roto leagues.
Outfield - Wyatt Langford
MLBDW Projection: 576 PA, 81 R, 26 HR, 74 RBI, 17 SB, .261/.353/.486
Langford’s season started slowly due to injuries. He ended up playing 134 games, but it was a really slow start for the kid after he dealt with an oblique issue in March. He ended up having a third oblique strain in September, which ended his season.
Even with all of that, the dude went 20-20.
→ .243/.346/.434, 22 HR, 22 SB
Langford has power and speed, and he did just fine in the contact department last year depite not being 100% healthy (83.2% Z-Contact%, 26.5% K%).
88th-percentile sprint speed, 66th-percentile bat speed, and a really nice batted ball profile resulting in that 78th-percentile xwOBA.
With a full offseason to get the oblique stuff figured out and healthy, Langford comes into 2026 as a true 30-30-.275 threat. And you can get your hands on that well after the third round.
Starting Pitcher - Drew Rasmussen
MLBDW Projection:
173 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 170 SO, 24% K%, 6.2% BB%
I want to buy in on the Rays rotation with this move from Steinbrenner Field back to Tropicana. There’s a lot more coming on that in the Rays preview. I think that park shift benefits Pepiot and Baz the most, but it certainly won’t hurt Rasmussen.
I don’t fully understand it, but it’s been proven that games in Tropicana Field boost Stuff+. It’s related to elevation, I think. There have also been eyesight issues with certain hitters there in the past (Willy Adames). It’s just a tougher place to hit than most venues.
That said, they are remodeling the stadium, so there’s a chance the batter’s eye stuff will change, and that could help the hitters. But no matter what, this is a significantly positive move for Rays pitchers.
The biggest thing for me is that Rasmussen stayed healthy all season. The Rays were taking it easy with him, but he made all of his scheduled starts and ended up throwing 150 innings. That sets him up to push to 170 next year. And the guy has been nothing but a very good pitcher for the Rays:
→ 81 GS, 428 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22.6% K%, 5.8% BB%, 0.76 HR/9
I don’t think you’re going to get a 26% K% from the guy. So he’ll finish around 150 strikeouts probably, but the ratios have always been good, and he has a great chance to post career-best volume. I’ll be drafting a lot of Rasmussen and some of his teammates on the pitching side of the ball this winter.
Relief Pitcher - Fernando Cruz
MLBDW Projection: 61 IP, 89 SO, 13.2 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Devin Williams signed with the Mets, and Luke Weaver is a free agent. That leaves David Bednar and Camilo Doval as the guys in the Yankees bullpen with closer experience. Both of those guys have pitched their way out of the closer job in recent years. So there could be some save potential for Cruz.
And the guy is fully equipped for the job. He’s one of the best relievers in the league by the numbers.
His 37% K% from 2024-2025 is the fifth-best in baseball (100 innings minimum):
He gives up more fly balls and homers (1.1 HR/9) than you might like for a closer, but he’s as nasty as they come. I think he’s in for another great season, putting up elite ratios and a bunch of saves + holds.
So there you go! A little taste of the 2026 MLB DW projections. Become a paid sub today to get access to them. You’ll just want to hit the Resource Glossary and open up the Web App. The projections are there (exportable) with a lot of other cool data and tools. And it’s only the beginning!