MLB DW Bets - April 11th
Exploring the Saturday MLB betting slate
Opened things up yesterday with a day that resulted in an exact push. Just 3 wins on eight bets, but two of the L’s were long shots (Ketel Marte homer & Griffin SB) that we only put a quarter of a normal bet on. Nobody’s out here dropping the same amount on a +1050 bet as they are on a closer to 50/50 shot, right?
So that means we had FREE FUN. Except waiting for Jake Irvin to get his fifth strikeout on his final pitch wasn’t fun, until it was.
BETS FOR SATURDAY
Dustin Harris Over 0.5 SB +920 on FanDuel
We have another Griffin-type situation that we lost on yesterday. Harris is a White Sox outfielder who replaced Austin Hays on the roster after he hit the IL. I don’t know if he’ll actually make the lineup, but he’s in the projected one, so he qualifies for this bet.
Harris stole 33 bags in 91 games in the minors last year. His career attempt rate is near 30%, a huge number. The bigger problem for these young guys is actually getting on base, but he’ll be taking off if finds his way to first.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 HR +920 on FanDuel
Sometimes you just get wildly different lines on different books. It’s probably long-term profitable to buy the bet anytime there’s a large difference. PCA is +800 in some spots, but +1200 on DraftKings.
To be fair, it’s not a good home run hitting spot in Wrigley again, this time against another ground ball pitcher in Braxton Ashcraft. But +1200 is wild.
George Klassen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-220 on MGM)
The 50/50 line is 4.5 strikeouts, but I’m just taking the easy win. Or will it be easy? My model is too hot on Klassen, but The Bat X shows a projection above what the books are pricing for.
Foster Griffin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106 on DK)
This dude throws the kitchen sink at people. He’s thrown seven different pitch types so far. And he’s new to the MLB after coming back from Japan. And he’s been fooling people so far with 11 strikeouts in two starts.
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