Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
RUN PURE SPORTS PROMO
RPS is one of the premier sites on the Internet for MLB DFS. Projections, tons of tools, and an unmatched Discord community that is active for every slate. Sign up today at runpuresports.com to get an even sharper edge, and use code “PGH25” at checkout for 25% off your first payment.
Just four more Friday night MLB DFS slates… hate to see it winding down.
Weather
Looks fine to me! Maybe a shower here and there but for now I don’t see any PPD risk.
Game Data
It’s a big old 12-gamer. So I can’t show the full table. But here are the spots that hover above the rest:
Cardinals in Coors
6.52 implied, +2.16
They’re up against Ryan Feltner, and the implied total is through the roof. The Cardinals are a good lineup for Coors. Not a ton of dependence on homers, just a lot of tough hitters that get a good number of balls into play. We’ll check the prices later, I’m sure they’re juiced up, but the Cards in Coors is the top spot for raw projection.
Dodgers vs. Jackson Kent
6.13 implied, +1.30
No Ohtani for this one, so the stack gets pretty cheap. Tommy Edman will be a key play against the lefty as the leadoff man, and Betts/Hernandez have been awfully cheap lately as well.
Royals vs. Jameson Taillon
5.45 implied, +1.09
The Royals have been popping all week. The temps have been super high and the winds have been favorable. That has worked well, the Royals have produced some big games this week. And now they get Taillon, probably the easiest pitcher in the league to homer off of. Taillon made rehab start and hasn’t made a Major League start since August 10th. So he might only go four innings here, and then the Blue Jays bullpen gets involved.
But it’s a really nice spot to play the Royals again. Taillon has a 2.8 HR/9 this year, a ridiculous number. Maybe the Royals are better for smaller stacks or one-offs, but I like them again and I can’t see the ownership being very high with Coors on the slate.
Blue Jays vs. Daniel Lynch
5.02 implied, +1.07
Lynch has been built up as a long man. He’s thrown 4, 4.1, and 3.1 innings the last three as they’ve had to get some innings from him. It hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been awful either. He’s given up just five homers all year.
The weather is good, the Blue Jays are cheap, and you can use them for some value, but I’ll never be looking to stack Blue Jays on a 12-game slate.
Guardians vs. Andrew Sears
5.0 implied, +1.0
Sears will start the night game in this double header. He is a 3-4 inning guy probably. He posted a nice 2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 19.4% K-BB%, and 0.3 HR/9 in the minors this year.
He has thrown just 6.2 innings in the Majors. He gaveu p six hits and runs to the Royals in his first appearance (four innings out of the bullpen).
Given the good AAA numbers and the lack of thump for the Guardians, I’m not super interested in playing them. But the lefty mashers are guys you can consider.
Mariners vs. Kade Morris
4.85 implied, +0.93
Another reliever. Moris threw two innings last time on August 30th. So it’s a bullpen game for the Athletics. But that’s good and fine for the M’s, because it’s not a good bullpen.
But we prefer to pay for the Mariners when they’re on the road, so it’s another spot where I don’t really want to full stack. That said, they have plenty of guys with ceiling. Randy, JRod, Raleigh in particular. I could play all of those guys, but the prices aren’t super cheap.
Mets vs. Matt Wilkinson
5.25 implied, +0.92
Lots of “who is that?” names at SP tonight. Wilkinson has been pushed into the Giants rotation. He went six strong inings last timea gainst the Diamondbacks.
In the minors: 3.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26.8% K%, 8.7% BB%, 0.93 HR/9.
Wilkinson’s a lefty, sot aht amtters for analyzing the Mets lineup.
Lots of spots that are pretty much the same. Mediocre/bad offenses against guys that will throw 3-4 innings and then the bullpen will get involved. Tough one to narrow down some stacks on. But here’s what I like for tourneys where we’re trying to find lower-owned blowup spots:
Royals vs. Taillon
Dodgers vs. Kent
Mets vs. Wilkinson
Mariners vs. Morris
Pitchers
Top of the projections board:
It’s very thin tonight. Not nearly as many options as we usually have on a Friday night.
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) vs. ATH
Feels like a lock. He’s the only trustworthy M’s pitcher, and he gets the A’s at home for 9,500. That’s just a bad price.
Blake Snell ($11,000) vs. WSH
Hard to argue with Snell’s form. He’s been elite since getting back and the pitch counts aren’t a problem. The problem is the $11K price. He hasn’t messed up at all this year, but we’ve been playing this game for many years and we know what Snell can do at times when he doesn’t have the command. If he was $10K I’d say it’s an easy play, but I’m not sure I can get there at $11K in cash/single entry.
Nolan McLean ($10,000) vs. SF
Not the most solid and trustworthy guy here, either. But he has locked in and has given up just two runs in his last four starts. The strikeouts haven’t been there, though. 3, 3, 6, and 4 in his last four. He hasn’t exceeded 25 fantasy points since July 19th.
The matchup is awesome, he’s a big favorite, and the floor is there. But I’m not sure we can feel great about his ceiling tonight. I think he’s a cash play but just not a great tourney option if he’s going to be owned.
Shota Imanaga ($8,800) vs. MIA
Great matchup and price for Imanaga. The Cubs should score him some runs, Imanaga is a -162 favorite. The worry with him is the long ball, but with this game being in Miami and Imanaga being a lefty, that concern is reduced. I’m very into Imanaga tonight.
Max Fried ($9,000) vs. SD
Horrible projection for Fried with a lower pitch count projected. He went 3.2 innings in his return from a short IL stint. So they’ll be careful with him, he hasn’t stayed healthy this year. For $9K, I don’t think you should play him.
Man it’s an ugly, ugly pitching slate. The ownership projections:
Snell 48%
Gilbert 46%
McLean 17%
Imanaga 16%
Ranger Suarez 12%
You can play Suarez in tourneys, the matchup with the Orioles is good and we do expect Suarez to get going again eventually, so it’s a good buy low spot.
But I think I would just stick to those top four if I’m playing 20 lineups.
Hitters
Catchers
Top Projections
Raleigh/Rice/Herrera are the clear plays. Pallante is great at keeping the ball on the ground, so I don’t want to pay the normal prices for the Rockies here.
Herrera is disappointingly expensive, but he’s a key part of any Cardinals stuff you’re building. I’d take Raleigh, though. Good spot for the M’s, and he’s been really good lately.
Values
You get Hunter Feduccia in the Dodgers lineup every other day now, and he’ll see a lefty here. The projections don’t hate him as a punt.
The Cardinals have a rookie here, Leo Bernal, at just $3500. He’s not a high-upside bat, but he can do some things. Good discipline, good hit tool, and $3500 in Coors is pretty juicy
TOP PLAYS: HERRERA, RALEIGH, BERNAL
First Base
I really don’t think we’ll see Ohtani in the lineup tonight. So Murakami ($5,200) is the top dog against Zebby. I like that play a lot, you can absolutely hit some bombs off Zebby. The White Sox are a sneaky snack we should consider.
Alec Burleson ($5,500) is expensive, but Coors fits his game perfectly. Lots of balls in play, lots of line drives, and lots of RBI opportunities tonight, probably.
Values
Josh Naylor ($3,300) hasn’t come through much at these cheap prices, but he continues to project very well in these spots against righties.
TOP PLAYS: BURLESON, MURAKAMI, NAYLOR
Second Base
Jazz Chisholm is fine at $4600. Most of his points come from steals, but he can still mix in a homer every once in awhile. Probably not tonight in San Diego, so $4600 probably isn’t the right click there.
Kody Clemens ($4,900) has been good again. Lots of power there, good spot against the White Sox with Fedde at least throwing a few innings.
But the best play is probably going to be Tommy Edman ($4,100) as the presumed leadoff man against a lefty.
Values:
Not much to like here. If you must punt it, I’d give you Lee ($3,000) or Cole Young ($3,000). And Marcus Semien ($2,900) is really cheap too against a minor league lefty.
TOP PLAYS: TOMMY EDMAN, KODY CLEMENS
Third Base
It’s an ugly night at third. Okamoto $4000 is fine, but nothing really makes me want to pay up at this position. I think it’s a good one to punt:
$2K Brock Rodden or $3k Hao-Yu Lee might be the answer here.
TOP PLAYS: JOSE RAMIREZ, BROCK RODDEN, HAO-YU LEE, MCGONIGLE
Shortstop
Bobby Witt has not been worth $5900, but he is tonight against Taillon in this awesome spot for Royals bats.
Francisco Lindor ($3,900) has this crazy price. That’s tough to pass up on. He’ll among the top plays overall at that price.
Mookie Betts ($4,200) is a great play at $4200 as well. I really like just hammering these mid-range prices.
Values
Brock Rodden is fast and is $2K. So that’s always a fine play for a 3B/SS punt. Geraldo Perdomo ($3,700) is also super cheap, for some good reason, but it’s a fine spot against Javier.
TOP PLAYS: BETTS, LINDOR, WITT, PERDOMO
Outfield
PCA at $6800, but at least that’s $200 less than last night. There’s not a ton of studs on the board at outfield tonight, so he’s very much in play.
Roman Anthony ($4,800) has been fantastic since getting back. I don’t think this is a discount price anymore, $5000 should be about his usual until he really gets it going in the Majors.
Randy Arozarena ($5,000)… few have been better at scoring fantasy points, another good spot for him with a decent Mariners projection around him.
Values:
Spencer Jones ($3,200) is way too cheap, not sure what’s going on there.
Kyle Tucker ($3,500) is also very cheap, but you can understand why.
Brett Bateman ($2,500) is fine, but not a ton of ceiling there.
And I will eternally play Dom Canzone ($3,700) against righties under $4K.
TOP PLAYS: PCA, ANTHONY, JONES, BATEMAN, AROZARENA,
So it looks like we want to play some Mariners and Royals again tonight.
TOP PROJECTION PLAYS
First, the highest projections above a 1.8x value:
Murakami $5200
Carroll $5200
Arozarena $5000
Anthony $4800
Antonacci $500
Raleigh $4500
Lindor $3900
J Rodriguez $4200
Second, the highest values above an eight-point projection:
Hao-Yu Lee $3000
Naylor $3300
Bateman $3200
Perdomo $3700
Bernal $3500
LIndor $3900
Tucker $3500
Canzone $3700
Bryan Torres $3600
I missed this Torres guy, he might hit leadoff for the Cardinals at $3600.
He and Bernal are cash staples tonight. Let’s build out a cash lineup.
My cash locks:
Gilbert $9500
Bernal $3500
Edman $4100
Lindor $3900
Torres $3600
Let’s start with Snell to see what it looks like.
It’s fine. Going down from Snell to Imanaga:
We get Randy in there instead of Spencer Jones.
My plan for now is to let the optimizer build some lineups for me with a smaller pool.
Pitchers: Gilbert, Snell, Imanaga, McLean, Suarez, Wilkinson
Stacks: Cardinals, Mets, Mariners, Royals, Dodgers