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The second to last Friday night of regular season baseball! Giant 13-game slate to get into it.
Weather
It looks all clear for tonight. Just one note on the SEA/COL game:
YELLOW - Scattered downpours around early, maybe they need to late start or get delayed... but I do think they get a game in.
They never seem to PPD in Colorado, so nothing to worry about there - you aren’t playing the pitchers, obviously, so a delay is no problem.
Meaningful Games
Slight upgrade to games that really matter. Teams that are dead in the water could opt for some early substitions.
Cubs at Reds: Cubs can’t win the division but want to hold onto the top wild card spot so they can host their wild card round matchup
Brewers at Orioles: Brewers are two games up on the Dodgers for the #1 seed.
Athletics vs. Guardians: Dead heat in the NL Central between the Guardians and White Sox
Tigers vs. White Sox: Dead heat in the NL Central between the Guardians and White Sox
Red Sox vs. Rays: Rays have a firm hold on the division but want to make sure. The Red Sox look pretty much locked into the #2 wild card spot, but the game certainly still matters
Phillies vs. Mets: Phillies are tied for the #1 Wild Card spot with the Cubs and four games ahead of the D’Backs to stay in the playoffs.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers: Blue Jays still heave Wild Card hope, two games back.
Braves vs. Astros: Astros hold a one-game lead in the AL West, Braves have a four-game lead on the Phillies for the division.
Yankees vs. DBacks: Yankees want to hold on to the first wild card spot, Diamondbacks are still in a Wild Card race
Marlins vs. Padres: Padres trying to hold onto a WC spot
Giants vs. Dodgers: Dodgers clinched the division yesterday and might be a little hungover here, but they want to chase down the Brewers for the #1 seed.
I guess it would have been easier to do a list of games that don’t matter… those would be:
Nationals vs. Cardinals
Twins vs. Angels
Mariners vs. Rockies
Royals vs. Pirates
Game Data
The 5+ implied run club:
Mariners vs. Gabriel Hughes
Dodgers vs. SF Bullpen
Guardians vs. Mason Barnett (in Cleveland)
Padres vs. Tyler Phillips
Brewers vs. Cade Povich
The Mariners will be popular for good reason. Coors is a feast spot, with the Rockies' rotation being in horrible shape.
The Dodgers are at home against the Giants, so that’s nice. But there might be that little “hangover”, even if we don’t mean that literally, after their division win party yesterday.
Cleveland is in a great spot against Barnett and the Athletics bullpen. It’s a very, very important series for Cleveland, so we’ll like using some of those bats.
The Padres also get a soft matchup with Tyler Phillips, but it’s not a great park situation playing in Petco.
I’ll also throw in the Twins vs. Grayson Rodriguez. They’re a rough offense right now and Grayson has had some positive signs, but we like getting left-handed hitters in there against Grayson.
So my preferred stacks:
Mariners
Guardians
Twins
Pitchers
It’s a very surprising projection on Connor Prielipp. The Angels boost pitchers like crazy, they’ve gotta be the worst lineup in the league numbers-wise, and Prielipp has held his own in the Majors. He has a 24% K% this year with an 8.2% BB% and a 1.1 HR/9. It’s been pretty good. What’s gone wrong is a high HR/FB (17%) and a decent low strand rate. It could be a smash for Prielipp, he’s definitely the top play of the night price-wise.
Dylan Cease ($11,300) still has a reason to go out there and try to shove again. The Blue Jays need to win now, and they certainly don’t want to give away one of 2-3 starts they have remaining from Cease. He does have two starts in his last five with five walks. In those last five, he has a 2.20 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, a 30.4% K%, but an 11.3% BB%. That’s just to say that he’s still been great, but the walk rate trending up makes you a little hesitant about the $11,300 tag.
We also have Tyler Glasnow ($10,500) against the Giants. 90+ pitches in his last two and a big 32% K% this year with a solid-enough 8.3% BB%. Great play for Glasnow, but the injury and workload stuff is always sort of in the back of your mind with him.
The other guys that are very in play:
Ian Seymour ($8,700) vs. BOS: Seymour has been stunningly good “under the hood” lately. 32.3% K%, 3.2% BB% in his last seven starts. That’s an insane 29% K-BB%. But he’s given up 11 homers in these last seven for a 2.25 HR/9. So it’s boom-or-bust, kinda. But you have to like a dude with this many strikeouts recently at $8,700.
Dustin May ($7,500) vs. BAL: Fantastic matchup for May. He is up-and-down and never super trustworthy, but I’m buying in on him. He’s very good at limiting homers, and that’s really the only thing this Orioles lineup offers. He’s a favorite play of mine tonight; this cutter is just too sick, and the Brewers know what they’re doing with the dude.
Nick Pivetta ($8,800) vs. MIA: Soft opponent for Pivetta, but just 63 and 69 pitches in his first two coming back from that April injury, and eight whiffs in those two outings. I don’t think I see the reason to go to him with a 75-pitch expectation and other solid options on the board.
Cade Cavalli ($9,300) vs. STL: Cavalli has been one of the best in the league. The model doesn’t love it (16.2 points) at the price, but the Cardinals aren’t a super-imposing lineup all things considered. Wetherholt is just getting healthy again and hasn’t hit well, and Jordan Walker can be handled by a good righty like Cavalli. Solid tourney option there but not a projection-based cash play.
Other deeper tourney shots:
Andrew Painter $5,700 vs. NYM: Just a silly price for Painter. He’s given up 16 hits, six runs, and six walks in his last two, so that’s a big concern. But there’s been some awesome outings and he had a streak of 6+ strikeout start prior to last time. So I like that play a lot for some 3-4x price ceiling.
David Sandlin $6,300 vs. DET: Interesting-ish arm here. Just 30.1 MLB innings this year and a 5.64 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, but a 23% K% and 9.5% BB%. He’s not quite a $6K pitcher, I don’t think. I don’t really want to play him, but the projections like him for the price.
CASH: CEASE + PRIELIPP
TOURNEY: PRIELIPP, MAY, SEYMOUR, GLASNOW, CAVALLI
Hitters
The plays of the day by the projections are here. These are the highest projections above a 1.9x value.
Jose Ramirez (3B) $5,100
Kody Clemsn (2B) $4,400
Will Smith (C) $4,000
Luke Keaschall (OF) $4,200
J.P. Crawford (SS) $3,900
Chase DeLauter (OF) $4,000
Ketel Marte (2B) $4,200
Carson Benge (OF) $4,300
Dominic Canzone (OF) $4,500
A.J. Ewing (OF) $3,800
Josh Naylor (1B) $4,300
Daylen Lile (OF) $4,200
The top values above a seven-point projection:
Angel Genao (2B/3B) $2,700
Lars Nootbaar (OF) $2,700
Amed Rosario (2B/3B) $2,600
Dustin Harris (OF) $2,900
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) $3,100
Miguel Rojas (2B) $2,900
Luis Lara (OF) $3,400
Walker Jenkins (OF) $3,200
Heliot Ramos (OF) $3,400
Francisco Alvarez (C) $3,100
Cooper Pratt (SS) $3,200
So your top plays by position:
Catcher
Cal Raleigh $5,600
Will Smith $4,000
William Contreras $4,600
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt $3,100
Josh Naylor $4,300
Kyle Schwarber $5,700
Matt Olson $4,500
Second Base
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,500
Ketel Marte $4,200
Hao-Yu Lee $3,300
Kody Clemens $4,400
Angel Genao $2,700
Shortstop
JP Crawford $3,900
Kevin McGonigle $5,200
Mookie Betts $5,100
Trea Turner $4,200
Francisco Lindor $4,800
Corey Seager $4,000
Zach Neto $4,700
Outfield
Julio Rodriguez $5,000
Randy Arozarena $5,000
Jackson Chourio $5,800
Lars Nootbaar $2,700
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,500
Juan Soto $6,300
Ronald Acuna Jr. $5,500
Yordan Alvarez $6,000
Corbin Carroll $4,700
Jo Adell $3,600
Dom Canzone $4,500
Luke Keaschall $4,200
Tommy Pham $2,000
Scott Bandura $2,100
Jahmai Jones $2,400
Optimal Lineup
Projected optimal:
SP Glasnow
SP Prielipp
C Will Smith
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Cole Young
3B Hao-Yu Le
SS JP Crawford
OF Julio Rodriguez
OF Randy Arozarena
OF Lars Nootbaar
Tourney Lineup
It’s a Cleveland stack fading the Prielipp ownership and going to Cease.
SP Dylan Cease
SP Dustin May
C Patrick Bailey
1B Josh Naylor
2B Angel Genao
3B Jose Ramirez
SS J.P. Crawford
OF Jo Adell
OF Chase DeLauter
OF Julio Rodriguez