MLB DW DFS Slate Breakdown - July 10th
A deep dive into the DFS slate for Friday, July 10th
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I’ve gotten friendly with a couple guys over at RPS. I’ve been looking for a good place to talk DFS, and Steve over there told me about their Discord. So he let me in there for free and I’m going to try to repay him by converting a few of you guys to subscribe over there.
If you’re a big volume DFS player, it makes a lot of sense to utilize what they have going on. Really awesome tools - I’ve seen them and I can vouch. They’re a little bit more professional than what I have here. Obviously there’s a big price difference, but their tools are way above what I’m able to put out on my own. Check them out! My favorite part is the Discord. I was amazed yesterday to see it. I mean it’s 8am right now (5am out west) and there are a few dozen people in there already. It’s a lot of fun, and I’ll be in there for the rest the season chopping it up.
It takes me back to my early days playing DFS. RotoGrinders had these free forums and I’d just spend hours in there talking about MLB and NBA slates during the work day. This was before I kids and this publication - so I had a lot more free time…. but I LONG for some more DFS talk, and I didn’t really think it existed, but I’ve found it over there at RPS.
This will be a super early slate preview as I’m writing it first thing in the morning since I’ll be driving this afternoon/evening. The projections will be running, but if there’s any issue please bring it to my attention. I’ll do my best to keep things running smoothly while I’m not at home.
Weather
https://propfinder.app/weather
Some yellow spots here in the first report. Things could change through the day, but it looks like we’ll be fine so I’m proceeding as if it’s all systems go for the 12-gamer.
Game Info
Huge slate. Here’s the top of the implied run total board:
We’re always looking for a combo of
a) high implied total (5+ runs)
b) 1+ run above their season average
Prices are largely anchored to the team’s season production. So when the Braves are implied for 4.7 runs (decent) but -0.2 points below their season average, we have a hunch that probably the prices aren’t going to be advantageous to us.
The big spots today, then:
Orioles vs. Avila (5.79 implied, +1.24)
White Sox vs. Lopez (5.67 implied, +1.07)
Giants vs. Gordon (5.33 implied, +1.19)
Orioles vs. AVILA
He’s had a few moments this year, but overall he looks bad.
He’s throwing around 85 pitches when things are going right and coming off of a spot where he threw jus 69 pitches. So we might not see him emptying the tank here. The good news for the O’s is that the Royals don’t have much help behind him in the bullpen.
White Sox vs. Lopez
Lopez was recently demoted and then call back up. The game’s in Chicago, which helps him quite a bit since his main problem is fly balls.
But his K-BB% is a mess, too. A 5.11 JA SIERA with a 31% FB%. He’s limited barrels, somehow (4.4% Brl%). I guess the fly balls have been high fly balls. The White Sox get Murakami back tonight, so that will be interesting to look at. It’s a great spot for a cheap Sox lineup around their two big sluggers. Those stacks are certainly in play. You can probably get some lower ownership on Murakami in his first game back.
Giants vs. Gordon
Gordon is a DFS dream for us. He doesn’t waste time with those two-point walks. He throws a ton of pitches in the zone and gets hit hard.
The game is in San Francisco, so it’s a park downgrade. But it’s a very bad pitcher and that’s the most important thing here.
WORST SPOTS
D’Backs vs. Ohtani (-1.5 vs. average)
Cardinals vs. Sale (-1.4 vs. average)
Rockies vs. Ray (-1.3 vs. average)
Pitchers
It’s Friday, so you get everything for free. Here’s the projection table after the first run:
Very interesting pitching slate to dig into.
HUNTER GREENE ($8,600 vs. CHC)
20.7 point projection | 2.4x value
He’s my top projected arm. But you have to be a little bit careful in these situations where a guy is coming off of a long IL stint. Greene got thumped in his first start. But it wasn’t because he wasn’t getting the ball past guys.
→ 15 whiffs
→ 16.9% SwStr%
The fastball looked like it normally does (99mph, 107 Stuff+). So we can definitely believe that Greene will be pretty studly the rest of the way. But the last thing that comes back, often times, is the command. And he did not have that in the first start with a 40% Ball% and some very poor locations in the zone that turned into a homer and a .435 xwOBA allowed.
At $8,600 and a low projected ownership, Greene is an elite tourney play. But on a 12-gamer, we probably don’t have to risk it with his questionable command and touch in cash / small field stuff.
CHRIS SALE ($10,700 vs. STL)
19.7 | 1.84x
Really expensive for Sale who hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was in May. The Cardinals have a team 17% K% against lefties. Their main guys all strike out less against lefties:
In cash on as 12-gamer, we should just play the spots where every box is checked (if possible), and Sale is missing the huge K upside we like at this kind of price point.
But he can crush in any spot, and the ownership isn’t projected to be very high, so he’s fine for tourneys. Although I would be fine totally fading him. It’s hard to lose in a tourney only because you didn’t play a near $11K starter, and I don’t think Sale really has that 40-point upside in this one.
HUNTER BROWN ($10,000 vs. TEX)
19.5 | 1.95x
Brown is in Arlington here, which is one of the best parks to pitch in. Since he’s been back from the IL stint:
21% K%
13% BB%
.325 xwOBA
Not great. His SwStr% is down at 9.9% (it’s usually not very high, but this is lower than usual), and he hasn’t been executing late in counts like he’s usually able to do. He has a high 41% Ball% and that very high walk rate.
It’s a bounce-back potential spot, though. He’ll get the touch back eventually (unless he’s still not quite healthy, I guess), and that could result in one of those big eight inning starts against this weak Rangers lineup. For cash? Probably not. But in tourneys he’s probably even a better play than Sale.
PARKER MESSICK ($9,200 vs. MIA)
18.9 | 2.05x
Messick gets the buzzsaw here against the Marlins who have been wrecking guys when the game’s in Miami.
→ Marlins at home since 6/1: .264/.327/.435, .762 OPS
→ Marlins overall since 6/1: .27/.349/.483, .832 OPS
Messick has mostly been a low-strikeout arm since the league got familiar with him. Just a 23% K% for him in his last seven starts. He’s very good at limiting hard contact and having that higher floor, but I don’t really think he’s worth $9K on a slate like this against an offense that has it all working.
SHOTA IMANAGA ($7,600 vs. CIN)
17.5 | 2.3x
Risky spot for the fly ball heavy Imanaga in Cincy. But his price is very low and his ceiling shines. The Reds have a .757 OPS against lefties this year, much better than their .676 mark against righties.
Imanaga has found a groove again lately. After a brutal stretch where he gave up 10 homers in three starts, he’s given up just four in his last five starts. It’s still a very high FB% (31%) lately, and that’s bad in Cincy. I don’t think I want him in cash, but I’d load up in tourneys. He could go for 30 points at $7,600 if he keeps the ball in the yard, and that would be a huge return at the price. The price has been dropping even while he’s pitched a lot better:
That’s a price to take advantage of.
NOLAN McLEAN ($9,400) vs. BOS)
17.4 | 1.85x
The Red Sox are without their best hitter, Willson Contreras (suspension), and they were bad even with him. McLean is throwing strikes again with 25 strikeouts and five walks in his last three. The whiffs are never elite, but he has 10, 19 and 11 in his last three. This is definitely a buy spot for McLean at home against this Red Sox (projected) lineup:
McLean can always blow it by walking a handful of guys, but I’m not sure who is going to get the big hit to blow him up in this iteration of the Boston lineup. I like McLean’s ceiling a ton here, and the matchup might even get me there in cash.
SHOHEI OHTANI ($11,000 vs. ARI)
16.1 | 1.46x
Ohtani’s luck has worn off a little bit.
→ Before 6/15: .206 BABIP, 9% HR/FB
→ Since 6/15: .367 BABIP, 13% HR/FB
That could be beneficial for us (that .367 BABIP which will come down quickly), but the price hasn’t dropped. $11K for Ohtani is tough. And he doesn’t project well at all at the price. That projection is probably low, but it doesn’t seem like the kind of spot to love paying $11K in.
Typically you want that like 35% K% for this level of price. Ohtani’s at 28%. Which is still great, but he should probably be $10K rather than $11K.
SEAN BURKE ($7,400 vs. ATH)
15.6 | 2.1x
The Athletics are struggling, and they’re on the road again for this one. Burke has been awesome with a 33% K% and 10.6% BB% with a .208 xBA and .298 xwOBA allowed in his last four starts. The whiffs are getting there (15% SwStr%).
The matchup would be a lot better if he were left-handed (we saw that with Framber last night), but with Rooker and Sodey out, there’s not a lot in this lineup after Kurtz at the top.
→ Athletics at home: .801 OPS
→ Athletics on road: .648 OPS
Athletics on the road since June began: .206/.278/.304, .582 OPS.
Great spot for Burke, and he’s a -170 favorite.
Tourney play FOR SURE. In cash? Maybe. Would anybody be shocked if he lays an egg here? And on this 12-gamer, you can’t afford a miss at SP. But I like Burke a lot and the projections agree.
ROBBIE RAY ($6,800 vs. COL)
14 | 2.1 x
Ray against the Road Rockies in the best pitcher’s park in the league! He still projects for just the 14 points in my model, because the Rockies are kinda good even on the road and Ray has fallen a long ways from his glory days.
Ray’s K% is below 20% (both on the road and at home). But 10 of his 15 homers allowed are on the road, which makes all the sense in the world, so he should be able to have a pretty good one here.
The 2.50 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home… that’s a beautiful thing. Not fully believable with just the 8% K-BB%, but he knows how to take advantage of that big outfield. I’m down for Ray. I might prefer Burke in cash at the lower price level, but I like them both.
SANDY ALCANTARA ($8,000 vs. CLE)
13.98 | 1.75x
We’re always looking to play SPs against Cleveland. They’re hitting .222/.290/.363 since June. Jose Ramirez was a big loss and they haven’t had anyone come close to filling his shoes.
Sandy can screw up hugely in any spot. That’s just who the guy is. But he’s found something better lately.
20+ points in six of his last seven, and this is one of the best matchups he’s seen at home against Cleveland. He rocks a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home where he’s very comfortable. Only three homers allowed in 59.1 innings in Miami. So it’s tough to see this going terribly, but we shouldn’t undestimate Sandy’s ability to let us down.
SONNY GRAY ($8,800 vs. NYM)
13.1 | 1.49 x
I was surprised to see the projection this low. He projects for about 85 pitches. And that’s right. Look at the pitch counts:
They have not been pushing it with him, and he’s coming off just a 70-pitch outing, and that’s going to push the projection down a bit.
The Mets are also a really strong offense right now, at least on paper. The emergence of Ewing and Benge with the Polanco and Lindor return make it so you don’t have a ton of weak spots down the order. It could work for Gray, he’s been elite, but I think I’m trusting the projections that this won’t be a start you have to have.
LUIS CASTILLO ($6,600 vs. TB)
13.9 | 2.1x
The piggyback situation with the Mariners is always something to be mindful of. But that’s not a concern tonight as Castillo is set for a normal start. I think the piggyback thing got thrown off when Gilbert said no to it last weekend, pushing Hancock back to make a normal start.
And the Mariners used the bullpen last night after Miller’s mess up. Castillo threw 91 pitches two starts ago and 101 last time, so he’s built up.
But is he good?
He’s fine. A 14% K-BB%, .330 xwOBA, not a big HR problem. The game’s in Tampa Bay, and we like the M’s arms a lot better in Seattle. But the Trop has that Seattle feel being a dome with favorable dimensions to pitchers.
The reason to play Castillo is the price, not the matchup. He’s just $6,600 and that’s influenced by a lot of the shorter outings he’s had. And we don’t have to worry about the outing being shortened by the piggy back thing. It could be shortened because he sucks, but it’s a good price for us.
The Rays don’t strike out much, but they don’t hit homers either. It’s a low-ceiling spot for Castillo, but the price is wrong, so he’s in play. He’s not going to be my top play by any means, and I might not have any of him. But we’ve gotta highlight that this is a good price.
BRANDON YOUNG ($6,700 vs. KC)
12.8 | 1.92x
Young isn’t good (18.5% K%, 8.9% BB%, .319 xwOBA allowed), and the Royals are swinging good bats. There’s enough below $7K to leave him off the player pool tonight, but I don’t think it’s crazy to use him - he has shown some ceiling and the Royals have mostly been beatable offensively.
LUINDER AVILA ($5,600) vs. BAL
We already said we really like the Orioles bats. But Luiner at $5,600 is a tourney play nonetheless. He’s throwing full allotments of pitches at times as the Royals hesitate to go to the bullpen with their very weak overall pitching staff:
And he does have a 21% K% this year. You don’t often find a $5,600 pitcher with some strikeout ability, and the Orioles aren’t a good lineup overall.
ZEBBY MATTHEWS ($7,800) vs. LAA
15 | 1.93x
He has 17 strikeouts in his last three outings. He’s been throwing more cutters as he tries to figure out how to get results at the MLB level. The matchup is a good one and it boosts the projection.
But it’s tough to play a guy with a 20.5% K% and a 32% FB% (12.8% Brl%).
The Angels have some guys that can hit the homer. I think Zebby is probably better for betting K props rather than using him in DFS. His fastball just isn’t working this year (6% SwStr%, 91 Stuff+), so I don’t see a real risk of him having a huge DFS score tonight.
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ ($6,900) vs. MIN
15 | 2.17x
He projects okay here with the 2.17x value. Buxton is out, and that’s a huge loss for the Twins. We haven’t seen him in the Majors since June 14th, but he did throw 5.1 innings in his last rehab. So we can get 80+ pitches here against a pretty bad lineup.
The problem is that he’s just not good anymore.
Bad fastball, and none of the secondaries have been good. An 8% K-BB% and a start where he’s just getting back to the Majors. I don’t think it will go well.
You can say that he’s been unlucky to this point. You see the .354 BABIP, 17% HR/FB, and 41% RISP H% (a form of strand rate). That’s all very unlucky, so he be a lot better than his 8.41 big league ERA, but what’s the point of using him on a 12-game slate?
NICK MARTINEZ ($7,200) vs. SEA
10.6 | 1.5x
The projections will always hate Martinez. He’s not a strikeout pitcher (15%), but he’s been getting by nicely for the Rays this year with a 4.5% BB% and only ten homers allowed. The Mariners are also pitiful right now. Here’s their team 15-day rolling xwOBA:
I guess it’s not crazy to play Martinez. The projections aren’t telling you to do that (he’s the third lowest value on the board), but they can’t really account for whatever magic the Rays have going on. I wouldn’t blame you for taking him, I just don’t see the ceiling there for the price.
JP SEARS ($7,000) vs. TOR
10.8 | 1.5x
He’s no good, but I think he’s better than people think. I’m surprised that this price is at $7K.
The quick story with Sears is that he’s an 18-20% K% at best with a huge home run issue. BUT in San Diego against the Blue Jays, we don’t project many homers, typically. He did score 23 fantasy points last time. So if you’re looking for like a 3% owned play that could kinda luck into 18+ points, there you have it. I just think there are many better options.
That’s a look at way more pitchers than I usually do, but I really wanted to dive into it today. Hopefully that sets the stage for you.
CASH OPTIONS: McLEAN, RAY, OHTANI, SALE, BROWN, ALCANTARA
You’d think on this slate there’d be a clear 1-2 we want to get to, there usually is. But not so tonight. I have some problems with every single available play. I think McLean plus Ray feels best to me. But there’s a lot of different ways to take it.
FAVORITE TOURNEY PLAYS: GREENE, SALE, BROWN, IMANAGA, MCLEAN, BURKE, CASTILLO
Hitters
CATCHERS
Too many options to go through hitter-by-hitter on this slate. I’ll just give the highlights that I’m seeing.
Sam Basallo ($3,900): Big pop, great spot for the O’s and the price is right where we like at C
Logan O’Hoppe ($2,300): Home run power against Zebby who can give up a lot of things
Tyler Stephenson ($2,900): Imanaga in GABP makes for a lot of HR potential from right handed bats
Alejandro Kirk ($2,800): Not a good park to hit homers, but that’s not really how Kirk usually does it anyways. Sears is easy to hit if you’re a right handed bat, so Kirk looks very nice there.
FIRST BASE
Sal Stewart ($5,000): I’d like my model to cool down on him a little bit. The Bat X is much lower, but the Stewart play has worked a lot more than it hasn’t this year. Great HR spot for the Reds tonight.
Rafael Devers ($3,800): Sucks being in AT&T, but Gordon is a pitch-to-contact righty and the Giants are in a very good spot for their prices.
Nick Kurtz ($6,100): Would rather pay the big price at home, but at low owenrship he can have a huge game facing off against Burke.
Josh Bell ($3,0000): Too cheap for this spot against Grayson, and Bell has been strong as a left handed hitter this year.
SECOND BASE
It’s gross again at 2B. Ketel Marte projects okay, but he’s against Ohtani so I don’t think you want to pay it there.
Maybe Jose Altuve ($3,800) is our guy again. We didn’t mention the Astros earlier, but they’re up against Cal Quantrill - which is a great spot even in Globe Life.
We also have the Padres against Shane Bieber, who looks completely awful. So I don’t mind going back, once again, to Jake Cronenworth $2,500 with the Padres attack.
Some punt options:
Cronenworth
Luis Urias ($2,100)
Anthony Seigler ($3,000)
THIRD BASE
Sal Stewart ($5,000)
Kazuma Okamoto ($3,600): The park sucks, but he can hit the ball a long ways and Sears should give him some meatballs to try it again.
Junior Caminero ($6,000): Luis Castillo doesn’t have much of a chance against Caminero who is hitting all kinds of pitches out of the ballyard. Really high price, though.
Casey Schmitt ($4,300): Giants bat here against Gordon.
SHORTSTOP
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,400)
Elly De La Cruz ($5,800)
Zach Neto ($4,700)
Gunnar Henderson ($5,500)
Witt and the Royals up against Brandon Young. That’s enticing. Witt gives you a lot of different ways to score points. I don’t typically love paying the huge price for him, but it might work tonight.
Punts:
Jim Jarvis ($2,200)
Tsung-Che Cheng ($2,000)
I guess there’s no runaway play at SS. Gunnar, Witt, Elly, and Neto are the pay-ups.
OUTFIELD
Yordan Alvarez ($6,200)
Juan Soto ($6,300)
Pete Crow-Armstrong ($6,600)
Mike Trout ($5,600)
AJ Ewing ($3,900)
We should probably like us some Yordan against Quantrill. That’s the clean pay-up to me. PCA I can leave off the rosters against Hunter Greene. Mike Trout is back - I didn’t know that until right now. That makes life tougher for Zebby.
The big values:
Josh Lowe ($2,200)
Jonatan Clase ($2,000)
Max Kepler ($2,400)
Kahlil Watson ($2,500)
Victor Robles ($2,300)
George Springer ($3,300)
Who saw Springer getting to $3.3K this year after what he did a year ago? What a bust!
Here’s a lineup I put together for cash:
But man, there are a lot of different ways to attack it tonight. Definitely a fun tourney slate to play. But I’ll be on the road instead of sweating 150 lineup builds.
Projected Optimal
There’s a DFS optimizer in my tools. Here’s what it’s saying for tonight, using my projections:
SP Messick
SP Greene
C Stephenson
1B Devers
2B Seigler
3B Stewart
SS Perdomo
OF Alvarez
OF Ewing
OF Springer
I’d prefer to stay away from those two SPs in cash because I have some recent concerns, but it should help you know what the projections want to do.
Goodbye!