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Weather
Full Report Here from PropFinder, as always
BAL/DET (not on main slate)
ORANGE - A line of storms moves through this evening. High-res models think it’s coming right before gametime, giving us a long wait and some very heavy rain. That would be a “late start at best, possible PPD” if it were to come to fruition.
CLE/CIN
ORANGE - National Weather Service forecast shows only low rain chances here, but the HRRR model is bringing in an absolutely deluge around gametime. Very, very far off from other models. So let’s see how models come around this afternoon, could go either way, but I do think they’ll come into much better agreement than what we’re seeing this morning.
That is a potential slate-changer with it being Cecconi vs. Burns. That’s a very appealing spot for Burns, and the Reds hitters were definitely in play back at home. We’ll have to wait for a clearer picture on that this afternoon.
Game Data
The highlight and fire emoji there is based on two things:
Implied Runs Above Season Average
Ownership
Any time we have a gap of ownership and implied above average, we like that. We’re getting an offense in a good spot at lower ownership. That spot today is the Cardinals against David Peterson and the Cubs.
But the big implied total belongs to the Red Sox as they take their hotness into Sacramento to face Jack Perkins. Boston has a .252/.325/.430 slash (.755 OPS) in July since they’ve been winning a bunch of games. The bulk of the damage has come against lefties (.832 OPS, they’re at .714 against righties). Jack Perkins is not a total slouch, but he’s been rough at home and definitely can be hit around at times, even though he does get some strikeouts.
The Reds are also in a +1.16 spot against Cecconi. We definitely like them returning home, even as a lineup that has been very bad. This game is all about the environment of the day. And that’s why I love it so much. The Reds have played a bunch of games on the road lately, and now they come home and the prices are still reflecting the tougher schedule they’ve faced.
The Yankees face Noah Schultz and his very bad MLB numbers, this one’s in Chicago.
It’s not the most fantastic spot in the world with the Yankees being against a lefty away from home, and a lefty that hasn’t given up a ton of homers (nine in 12 starts). But they should do fine, Schultz is really, really bad - and Fried should pitch well here to get the Yankees matched up against the non-elite White Sox bullpen arms.
Pitchers
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