MLB DW DFS Slate Preview - June 16th
A cash and single-entry tourney lineup build for June 16th
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Cash lineup was money last night!
Not an impressive lineup, but enough to get there as a lot of people went to Imanaga (68% owned) for 13 points, and people played more Pirates than I did - and they busted out besides Endy Rodriguez, who I had at 40%. There’s a luck element to all forms of DFS, obviously. We’re reasonably hoping to cash 60% of the time, and even that might be a little bit ambitious.
It’s a good way to play, and researching cash really teaches you a lot of stuff about the MLB for season long league situations as well. It’s great.
So I’m loading back up on $1-$3 double-ups again tonight, but I’m also going to try a high-dollar-value, single-entry tournament build. Let’s go for this one:
$500 if we can beat 44 other people.
It’s also really worthwhile to have a tourney lineup ready to go and then search for overlay right up to the time the slate locks. Sometimes these guaranteed contests don’t fill, negating the rake. I’ve even seen that with double ups sometimes. So we should have a cash and a tourney lineup available for that and then we’ll keep an eye on the lobby.
Weather
Two spots to worry about. And I quote from Roth via PropFinder (link above):
METS at REDS
YELLOW - A few showers early, maybe a few more late... but I think they play this game without any major issues. I’ll leave it YELLOW for a chance of a delay or (more likely) brief late start, but I think it’s more likely we get in a clean 9.
GIANTS at BRAVES
ORANGE - A bunch of scattered storms around. Not a ton of organization where I can time this out, it’s just “storms around”. I think a delay is likely, and a PPD is possible.
Game Info
Top implications:
Cubs vs. Feltner
Athletics vs. Keller
Braves vs. Houser
Astros vs. Valdez
Mets vs. Singer
I’m not going at the Cubs because of the wind tonight. The O/U is 9.5, which is about what you’d expect in a neutral spot against the Rockies. There are winds, but they’re apparently going SIDEWAYS. It doesn’t seem smart to me to stake your entire lineup on some Wrigley winds that might happen or might not in any given inning. But even the people who are most into that aren’t saying this is a must-stack game for hitters. Ryan Feltner just isn’t very good, and the Rockies bullpen behind him is worse.
The Athletics get a nice spot against a guy who is really, really struggling in Mitch Keller. It’s only 82 degrees there tonight, so a little bit cooler, and Mitch Keller is usually about a league average arm. I don’t see why he won’t get back to being the 4.25 ERA guy he’s been for awhile. It’s a good spot for the Athletics, but I’m not sure about the 6.2-run implication.
They do top the projections though:
The Braves are the last one I’m going to focus on here. They get a home matchup with Adrian Houser and his 4.81 xERA. He’s been one of the worst in the league.
Bottom implications:
Orioles vs. Gilbert
Tigers vs. Brown
Guardians vs. Gasser
Rays vs. Wrobleski
Rockies vs. Cabrera
White Sox vs. Cole
Giants vs. Holmes
We’re usually not stacking a bunch in cash, but that doesn’t mean we want to pick one-off hitters from the worst lineups. There are exceptions for pricing stuff, but if your team is likely to go score 3-4 runs, there aren’t many extra points to go around with runs and RBI - so we’d prefer to build from the top projected lineups if possible.
Let’s find our pitchers first for the two lineups we’re building.