MLB DW DFS Slate Preview - June 22
A new week of grinding DFS cash & tourneys
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Focusing on the main DFS slate. The projections have been humming right along, they’re an extremely good place to start if you’re building DFS lineups or if you’re betting on games.
We also have a new simulation tool here where you can simulate the slates and whatever individual games you want to see how the projections turn out.
Weather
On the main slate, there’s just one potential issue. That’s in CHC/NYM.
ORANGE - I’m probably trying to be too precise this many hours out... but storm chances increase as the game goes on. I think aa delay of some sort is likely, and a PPD or game that doesn’t finish is possible. Again, we’ll want a pregame radar check to know more.
As always, read the full report from Roth & PropFinder here.
Home Runs Are Flying
15-day moving average here on HR/FB:
It’s been pretty wild of late. You’ve gotta be on your game as a pitcher right now. It’s even possible the baseballs are different this year or recently, and that’s why we’re seeing this trend accentuated right now. Home runs always come up in June-August, but not usually to this extent.
It could be randomness, you can never discount what randomness can do - but we might just want to focus a little bit more on the stud pitchers and the guys who don’t give up a lot of fly balls.
Game Info
The top implied run totals:
Boston in Coors [Feltner]
Brewers in Cincy [Singer]
Dodgers in Minnesota [Zebby]
Orioles in LAA [Aldegheri]
Rockies at home [Bennett]
Cardinals at home [Kelly]
Cubs in Citi Field [Senga]
I’m immediately skeptical of the Red Sox scoring 6.5 runs. The sims have that game as the #3 environment for runs.
The projections are pushing us to this LAD at MIN game. The Twins can stack nine righties against Lauer, who has a huge home run issue against those bats, and the Dodgers get the flyball heavy Zebby Matthews. That’s the game to go to in my book.
But we shouldn’t discount on bad Merrill Kelly has been. A 5.2% k-BB5 with a 38% GB% and 15 homers given up.
So my first read is:
Get a lot of MIN/LAD
Grab Cardinals who can homer
Take the Boston values if they exist
Pitchers
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