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Weather
We’re all green today! No rain anywhere except where we have some domes.
We have a few hot spots:
MIL at MIN
ARI at COL
KC at STL
SF at ATH
All 80+ degrees and some favorable winds.
We have a 12-game main slate with a three-game turbo slate. So we can write off the turbo slate there and fix our attention on the main. There’s a ton to dig into.
Game Data
Top Implied Totals
Diamondbacks (6.42) vs. Kyle Freeland in Coors
Dodgers (6.29) vs. Jack Kochanowicz in Anaheim
Athletics (5.76) vs. Tyler Mahle in Sacramento
Rockies (5.64) vs. Merrill Kelly in Coors
Orioles (5.58) vs. Zack Littell in DC [TURBO SLATE]
Those are your five totals above 5.5. Nobody else is above 5.1 as things stand right now.
The Snakes, Athletics, and Orioles are of most interest to me as offenses who are boosted way up from their usual production.
Lowest Implied Totals
Mets (3.05) vs. Cam Schlittler in Queens
Angels (3.12) vs. Snell in Anaheim
Padres (3.28) vs. Hncock in Seattle
Red Sox (3.50) vs. Strider in Atlanta
Biggest Pitcher Favorites
Blake Snell (-232) vs. Angels [Jack Koch]
Cam Schlittler (-157) vs. Mets [Clay Holmes]
Spencer Strider (-156) vs. Red Sox [Connelly Early]
Edward Cabrera (-149) vs. White Sox [Sean Burke]
Pitchers
There are not a ton of studs on the board for this one. So the ownerhsip shuld be spread out and we’ll want to really dive in on the available options to zoom in on the top handful of options.
Blake Snell ($8,700) at Angels
He is the top projected arm in my model and on The Bat X. But it’s only his second start of the year, and we know about Snell’s ability to struggle for stretches, especially at the beginning of his season.
In his first start, he threw 77 pitches with a 20.8% SwStr%. That was double good news since he’s already built up to 80+ and he was getting whiffs on the curveball and slider and changeup like normal.
The ceiling is sky high for Snell, especially as such a huge favorite against a bad team. But Snell in cash after making just one start?? That’s a tough sell.
Tanner Bibee ($7,400) vs. Reds
The Reds are on the road here after scoring 15 runs at home yesterday. I suppose it’s a pretty short flight from Cincy to Cleveland, so we don’t have to worry much about that. I assume they flew… do any teams take the bus? Certainly, you wouldn’t fly from Pittsburgh to Cleveland or Philly to Boston? Or would you? I don’t know.
But we shouldn’t change our expectations even an inch just because they scored a bunch of runs yesterday. That’s not how baseball works.
The Reds are slashing .221/.286/.364 on the raod this year with a 24.3% K% and a .316 xwOBA. It’s a good matchup for Bibee, who generated 20 whiffs last time out. But again, we shouldn’t change anything because of the last game. Bibee has a 23.2% K% this year, which is fine, and a 9.3% BB%, which is about par for the course this year. He’s given up a non-awful 7.7% Brl% and a high 23 HR/FB.
For $7,400, I think he’s in cash consideration. It’s a low price.
Spencer Strider ($9,200) vs. BOS
Strider and Snell may be the keys to this slate. Strider has piled up 29 whiffs in two outings and his fastball increased in velo from his first start (94.6) to his second (96.4). The heater, though, has a Stuff+ of 88.6, and the slider is at 94.9. That’s a little bit concerning since we don’t have much data to work with on Strider this year. Even if you ignore the Coors start, it was a 95.7 on the fastball and 92.3 on the slider against the Dodgers.
Maybe the edge on this slate will be the fade of Snell and Strider. Neither guy is at all safe. Snell is projected for slate-leading ownership (30%), and Strider is 4th (18%).
As always, if you fade a guy with this kind of upside and they crush, you’re not winning anything. But if these ownerships are right, I’d definitely like to be off of those two in tourneys, no doubt about that at all.
Cam Schlittler ($10,500) vs. NYM
The price is through the roof now. I have him as the #4 projected SP, and The Bat is only at 3rd (behind Snell and Bibee, which is wild).
Schlittler has passed every test with flying colors this year, and this Mets lineup has been really bad this year. But they do have Soto healthy, Semien warming up, Bichette with a lot of bad luck on his card this year, and some young hitters looking pretty nice in Ewing and Benge.
But maybe that’s doing too much. Schlittler has a 25% K-BB% with a .253 xwOBA allowed. He handles righties and lefties with no problem. There’s nothing you can really critique on the guy besides the price being at a career high.
And maybe we get lower ownership as people flock to Snell/Strider. I feel a lot better about Schlittler. I think he’s a cash play, and definitely someone to use in tourneys.
Jack Leiter ($7,100) at HOU
This is my favorite tourney option of the night. Leiter has a 14.2% SwStr%, a 26.2% K%, and an improved 9.6% BB%. He has gone for 8+ strikeouts three times this year, but some bad luck (.315 BABIP, 17% HR/FB) has harmed him. The Astros are definitely beatable, and if Leiter has his command, he’s electric. The fastball (13.5% SwStr%), changeup (17.2% SwStr%), and slider (17.9% SwStr%) are all whiff pitches. There’s the downside that he’s given up an 11.9% Brl% with three different starts with 3+ walks. It can go very poorly, but I love the ceiling for this price.
The matchup is probably a good one all things considered. The Astros have a .331 xwOBA with a .743 OPS this year, and so much of that damage comes from one bat - Yordan Alvarez. Here’s their team xwOBA rolling chart:
So they’ve been below average for much of the year. I like Leiter a lot. Probably still not for cash, but he’ll be my most-rostered guys in tourneys.
Joe Ryan ($8,600) vs. MIL
Ryan’s problem has long been the long ball, and the Brewers haven’t done much long ball hitting this year with just 27 homers on a team .359 SLG. This game being in Minnesota is good for Ryan, but we did mention the hot temperatures there. The Brewers have Chourio, Yelich, and Vaughn all back in play, but they’ve all kinda struggled.
The problem the Brewers present is plate discipline. They have a 20.8% K% with a 10.9% BB% this year, so the K ceiling might be capped for Ryan. The price is also about right… so I’m not convicted in either direction on Ryan.
Edward Cabrera ($7,900) at CWS
The guy is never consistent, but he’s been throwing a lot more strikes in his last three starts with a 22:4 K:BB in those three. The problem is that he’s suddenly started giving up homers (seven allowed in his last four starts). I don’t think that will keep up since it’s never been a big issue for him in the past.
The White Sox strike out a ton, so it’s a good spot to use E-Cab in tourneys.
Connelly Early ($7,500) at ATL
This guy might be pitching to stay in the Majors tonight. The Red Sox are going to have to take somebody out of this rotation with Gray back and Crochet returning soon.
Early has given them good results in the box score with a 3.16 ERA. But his K-BB% is 12% and he’s only completed six innings twice.
For tonight, I think I’m pretty anti-Early. The Braves are tough, and Early’s lack of whiffs makes me pretty nervous about him. He’s thrown 90+ pitches just four times, so they’re usually trying to end his outing around 85-90, it seems. I think we’ll be fine with a Connelly fade tonight.
Logan Henderson ($8,500) vs. MIN
The Bat X really hates Henderson here, giving him just an eight point projection. He’s thrown just 76 and 74 pitches in his two starts back, so that’s the main reason. I think that’s enough for a fade at $8,500. He’s good, but probably doesn’t have enough ceiling to play on this slate.
Spencer Arrighetti ($8,200) vs. TEX
Good matchup against the Rangers. But I don’t think Arrighetti is good. He has a 46% Strike% (below league average) and a 39% Ball% (three points above league average which is very bad). His fastball has been crushed and he has a 9:8 K:BB in the last two. The price is wrong on Arrighetti, so he’s out.
Emerson Hancock ($8,400) vs. SD
After a 14:0 K:BB start on May 2nd, he went for a 4:3 K:BB against the White Sox last time out. He has a beautiful 22% K-BB% this year and his fastball has been one of the best in the league.
The Padres have seen him once this year already and only managed four hits and two runs in six innings.
But Hancock relies heavily on the unique release point, so it can’t be good when a team has already seen him pretty recently. I’m off Hancock tonight.
Dustin May ($6,200) vs. KC
Here’s the PUNT play of the night. The price for $6,200 against a below-average Royals offense is too low. He’s given up no more than three runs in each of his last six outings and has 19+ fantasy points in five of his last seven.
The downside is always single-digit points. He’s gone for negatives twice (his first starts of the year) and has been under ten points in two of his last three.
But he’s a six-inning machine and has a max of two walks this year. The batted balls have to go at guys, because he gets very few outs with the K (18% this year). But he’s in the player pool for sure as a salary saver with 15+ point ability.
Andrew Abbott ($6,600) vs. CLE
Abbott has 19, 16, and 25 points in his last three starts. But even during that spell, it’s a 14:7 K:BB. His season K% is 16%. So the upside doesn’t seem to be there. But we should say that he’s very capable of having good starts, we’ve seen a ton of them from him in his career, and it’s possible he’s fixed whatever was going wrong early on in the year.
It’s a plus that the game isn’t in Cincy, and the Guardians offense is far from impressive.
I think that’s pretty much everybody who needs talked about.
CASH POOL: Schlittler, Snell, Bibee, Ryan
GPP POOL: All the above + Strider, Leiter, Cabrera, Abbott, May
Team Offense
Let’s look at the top projections for the 1-6 hitters, since most of our DFS plays are from the top two-thirds of the lineup.
Highest projection:
Highest value:
We haven’t mentioned the Giants yet. They’re a bad offense which hasn’t scored many runs this year, so their implication is always pretty low.
But it’s a great spot for them in Sacramento against Aaron Civale. Possibly the best spot of the year for the Giants offense, and the prices are lowww.
PRIMARY STACKS
D’Backs vs. Freeland
Ketel Marte $5,700
Corbin Carroll $6,200
Geraldo Perdomo $4,900
Nolan Arenado $4,000
Athletics vs. Mahle
Nick Kurtz $5,700
Shea Langeliers $5,900
Tyler Soderstrom $4,400
Brent Rooker $4,900
Carlos Cortes $4,200
Henry Bolte $2,700
Zack Gelof $3,600
Dodgers vs. Kochanowicz
Shohei Ohtani $6,400
pretty good to get Ohtani back in the lineup here!
Mookie Betts $4,400
Freddie Freeman $4,800
Kyle Tucker $5,400
Will Smith $3,900
Max Muncy $4,600
Andy Pages $5,200
Rockies vs. Kelly
Edouard Julien $4,700
Mickey Moniak $5,500
Hunter Goodman $4,900
TJ Rumfield $3,800
SECONDARY STACKS
Giants vs. Civale
Heliot Ramos $3,500
Rafael Devers $4,200
Bryce Eldridge $2,500
Willy Adames $3,200
Padres vs. Hancock
Jackson Merrill $4,300
Fernando Tatis Jr. $4,600
Manny Machado $4,100
Royals vs. May
Maikel Garcia $4,400
Bobby Witt Jr. $5,900
Vinnie Pasquantino $4,000
Sal Perez $2,900
Hitters by Position
I’ll give you at least two expensive plays and at least two value plays at each position that the projections plus my own takes like the most.
Catcher
Langeliers $5,900 vs. Mahle
Goodman $4,900 vs. Kelly
Mack $2,200 vs. Scholtens
Perez $2,900 vs. May
First Base
Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Kurtz $5,700 vs. Mahle
Devers $4,200 vs. Civale
Vaughn $2,800 vs. Ryan
Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens
Second Base
Ketel Marte $5,700 vs. Freeland [lock play in Coors vs. LHP]
Tyler Freeman $3,700 vs. Kelly
Richie Palacios $3,100 vs. Junk
Edouard Julien $4,700 vs. Kelly
Third Base
Caminero $5,000 vs. Junk
Arenado $4,000 vs. Freeland
Norby $2,700 vs. Scholtens
Gelof $3,600 vs. Mahle
Shortstop
Witt Jr. $5,900 vs. May
Betts $4,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Adames $3,200 vs. Civale
Perdomo $4,900 vs. Freeland
Ha-Seong Kim $3,000 vs. Early
Outfield
Ohtani $6,400 vs. Kochanowicz
Carroll $6,200 vs. Freeland
Rooker $4,900 vs. Mahle
Moniak $5,500 vs. Kelly
Alvarez $6,300 vs. Leiter
Soderstrom $4,400 vs. Mahle
Bolte $2,700 vs. Mahle
Zach Cole $2,700 vs. Leiter
Sheets $2,800 vs. Hancock
Collins $2,800 vs. May
Benson $2,400 vs. Bibee
Osuna $2,400 vs. Arrighetti
That’s it for the DFS slate. I might be back with some prop betting stuff, and Trevor certainly will be. But I wanted to start getting the DFS stuff out earlier when possible.