MLB DW Mailbag - March 13
Answering your questions!
From the actual mailbag
QUESTION #1
Do you rank SP by Quality Starts anywhere? My league uses QS vs Wins. It would really be helpful.
~ Coach
I do not do this. But my pitcher projections would not change much. Quality starts and wins are correlated pretty strongly.
So if you’re drafting for wins (or with the aid of projections that are using wins), you’ll mostly capture the same thing. You could also grab the projections and compare wins and quality start projections. I did this with ATC. There are seven pitchers projected for four more quality starts than wins (some rounding stuff makes the math look wrong, but it’s not). Here they are:
Good pitchers with bad supporting offenses. Except in the case of Cristopher Sanchez. Here’s the Google Sheet for that, hope it helps.
QUESTION #2
The past few years, you have shared probable pitchers against poor offensive teams. What teams do you project will be the 2026 offenses to exploit and target streamers against?
~ Cluckie Finster
We’ll certainly talk a lot about this in the early days of the DFS previews. But here’s a quick top ten offenses to stream against.
Rockies (on road, and at home is probably fine too in the cold months)
Nationals
Cardinals
White Sox
Angels
Rays
Marlins
Guardians
Twins
Pirates
QUESTION #3
Should I be concerned about James Wood? He had a terrible second half last season (after having a great first half) but has now gone 2 for 22 this spring with zero HR's? He plays on a poor team and just isn't hitting. I'm tempted to keep J. Duran instead who's having a good spring, hitting HR's and stealing bases. I am concerned with the crowded outfield in Boston. Am I over thinking this or do you see what I mean?
~ Coach
I’d say yes, you’re overthinking that. Wood hit 31 bombs and stole 15 bags last year with 87 runs scored and 94 RBI, even with the slump you allude to - and he probably won’t have a slump like that again this year.
These super tall guys with tons of bat speed are subject to slumps. That type of hitter is always going to strike out at a higher rate, and sometimes it can be hard for those big boys to get the ball in the air consistently. But the skills give him a super high floor and round-one pick potential if he makes some improvements with the launch angle and contact stuff this year. He’s much better than Duran. Stop looking at spring stats, Coach!
QUESTION #4
He has gone as SP51 in the Main Event so far.
I’d probably take Bibee over him, but I wouldn’t be much further down than that. Between SP50 and SP60 is probably right. He’s not easy to hit, so if he keeps most of those BB% gains we saw last year, he’ll be standard league worthy. But it won’t be a smooth ride, and it’s not a clean bill of health either. He had a right elbow sprain last September and has never cleared 140 MLB innings.
QUESTION #5
Misiorowski with ease!
QUESTION #6
That’s exactly my approach. I’m grabbing one of these guys this year (unless it’s a HLDS+SV league, then I don’t think you need to pay for it):
And after that, I’ll embrace the value. Some of the guys I’m looking for later on in a league where the most important thing is getting saves:
Kenley Jansen
Pete Fairbanks
Josh Hader (if he falls past RP15 or so)
Ryan Walker
Griffin Jax
Super late guys
Taylor Rogers
Justin Sterner
QUESTION #7
14 times 7 is 98. So we’re looking at SPs outside of the top 100 for this question. Here’s my advice:
Cade Cavalli
Parker Messick
Braxton Garrett
Hunter Greene (IL stash, he could smash for you in the playoffs)
Kyle Harrison
Tyler Mahle
Matthew Liberatore
Dustin May
Simeon Woods Richardson
QUESTION #8
My advice is to use an auction calculator to get values for each player, and then use that in your draft. OBP instead of AVG will create some nice values on guys that walk a lot.
I’ve never heard of a “net saves plus holds” league, but that’s interesting. It boosts up the 8th inning guys a ton. So you really don’t need to worry about drafting relievers until very late. Load up on those elite setup men (Bryan Abreu, Jeremiah Estrada, Griffin Jax, etc.).
And you said it’s an eight-team league, which creates enormously high replacement value. To take advantage of that, you should be drafting pretty much all upside. There’s going to be very strong players available on waivers, so you can afford to take more risk. The misses won’t hurt you very much.
You’ll win the league by just being the best and most active on waivers.
QUESTION #9
I once got way over tanked on Jack Daniels Tennessee Fire. Can’t even sniff cinnamon anymore.
The keeper options you’re giving me aren’t great, so I don’t know if you actually over-tanked. $10 for Barger in a 10-team league seems looney.
I don’t think any of those are great. Pass?
QUESTION #10
Is it crazy to think Judge and Ohtani could both steal like 15 bags this year? Let’s compare their SB stuff in the final two months when Ohtani was really focusing on his pitching:
Ohtani: 7 steals, 9 attempts, 13% attempt%
Judge: 6 steals, 8 attempts, 10% attempt%
I think these two are really close in leagues where Ohtani is only a hitter.
Add on the elevated injury risk with Ohtani pitching, and I’m taking Judge #1 in those leagues.
QUESTION #11
Is that a joke about that boomer band lead singer guy?
Bibee for $10 clears a $14 Royce Lewis by far. And the general question, yeah I probably prefer to protect the trustworthy SP over the hitter who just can’t stay healthy - especially when it’s repeated muscle stuff like with Lewis. Some guys just have bad muscles.
I’m not saying I have better muscles than Royce Lewis. But I am saying I could probably run way further than him before pulling something.
QUESTION #12
It’s Burns, I think. Misiorowski not far behind, and yeah, the seven extra rounds for Woodruff is tempting. If all three of these guys were guaranteed 30 starts this year, I’d take Woodruff even at the same price. But I just really, really don’t think this guy is going to be healthy this year.
Thanks for the questions. No mailbag next week, I’ll be in Pittsburgh for the home league draft with the boys again! Best weekend of the year.