MLB DW Monday Slate Breakdown
An in-depth look at the DFS slate for Monday, May 18th
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Weather
It’s about to severely storm where I live. Which is usually bad news for baseball, because I live right in the middle of a bunch of big league cities. I’m within an afternoon’s drive to Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Cleveland. So we have some orange on the weather report from Kevin Roth.
→ View Full Weather Report on PropFinde Here
The spots to watch:
Cleveland at Detroit [Orange]
Houston at Minnesota [Orange]
Boston at Kansas City [Orange]
Texas at Colorado [Yellow]
It really does seem like they have some sort of magic weather control in Denver where they get a lot of risk but rarely a PPD.
That makes things a bit tricker on this slate. The good news is that Detroit is on not on the DFS main slate, so we can forget about that one as we go into the DFS preview.
On Mondays, I write a bit of a slate betting preview over at Action Network. I’ll retweet that when it comes out, but you can get more from me through that post.
Main Slate Breakdown
Implied Totals
It’s a nine-game slate. Here’s the top of the board for implied run totals:
Cubs vs. Brandon Sproat
I don’t really agree with this one I won’t lie! The Cubs will face Brandon Sproat, who is getting better every time out it seems. We’ll talk about him below. But his five-game rolling JA ERA plot shows it well:
His K-BB% is 15.4% over the last five and he has a 25% K% with at least a handful of strikeouts in every outing (okay he only struck out four Tigers on 4/23, but that might be a handful if you have small hands). The cutter is really good with a 13.5% SwStr% and .303 xwOBA (no homer) in this sample. And then he mixes in sinkers, four-seamers, curves, sweeper, and changeups. I like the guy a little bit, so I won’t go chasing big ownership on the Chicago side.
Yankees vs. Patrick Corbin
There’s a spot to like. I’m really unsure how the Cubs get a higher implication than the Yanks against the Corbinator. The innings champ lefty has a 19% K% with a 7% BB% in these last two seasons with a big .350 xwOBA allowed, and .352 against righties. Pretty elite spot for Aaron Judge to wake up to on this fine Monday in America.
Rangers vs. Quintana
It’s in Coors, and Q is one of two pitchers with as many or fewer strikeouts than walks this year. Dating back to last year, he has a 15% K% with a 9% BB% and a .354 xwOBA. He’s better against lefties, but still not good (.340 xwOBA, 21% K%).
But who on the Rangers can actually hit?
If you’re stacking Rangers, you’re relying on a lead-off lefty (Nimmo) without the platoon advantage, and then guys like Duran, McCutchen, Jung, and Burger. Not exactly the best Coors spot, especially with forecasted 40-degree temps. Plus the possibility of some rain delays, that feels like a spot to be against. Maybe even an under 9.5 run bet!
Diamondbacks vs. Robbie Ray
Another implication I don’t understand. Robbie Ray has been good this year. He’s a long ways from his former Cy Young self, but since last year he has a 25% K% with a 9.6% BB% and a .313 xwOBA allowed. This game is in Arizona, which is a better spot for hitting than San Fran. Here’s the matchups model results on Arizona:
Ketel Marte went just 4/15 with one extra base hit in Coors over the weekend. But he’s not struggling anywhere nearly as badly as you’d think by his .637 season OPS.
For his career, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league against lefties. So he’s in a good spot against Ray. Corbin Carroll made the most of the Coors series over the weekend, but there’s not much thump in this lineup after that top two. I took the Giants to win game. That doesn’t mean the D’Backs can’t put some runs up on the board, but Ray isn’t an arm I’m looking to stack against
Twins vs. Imai
We might have something here. Imai has been a disaster in his first stint in the bigs. A 24.6% K% (decent), but a 21.5% BB% and a .398 xwOBA. I guess his problem isn’t as much getting tanked with the lumber every time he toes the rubber, it’s just that he can’t throw a strike. The Twins should look to be patient and take some of those free strolls to first, and maybe a big swing or two puts up a big number on the board for the Twinkies.
Athletics vs. Walbert Urena
If you’re stacking A’s, you’re looking for some bombs. And Urena isn’t the type to give up the longball with his 53% GB% on the year. We’ve got some high xwOBAs in the matchups model for them, but not much fly ball hitting, as we’d expect if the model does its job - and the model does indeed do its job.
So I’m only really buying the Yankees stack from these implied totals. At the bottom of the list:
The White Sox face Woo in Seattle, which has been one of the toughest spots for run production in these last few seasons. The Padres face Yamamato, and the Blue Jays take their very poor lineup up against Ryan Weathers, who has pitched very well on balance. If there’s a problem with Weathers, it’s the home run, and the Blue Jays are hitting fewer home runs than pretty much every other team.
Pitcher Breakdowns
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,700) vs. Padres
Yamamoto has suddenly hit a rough patch. He’s given up 14 earned runs in his last four starts. But I don’t see anything wrong below the surface. Over these last four, he has a 20% K-BB% with a 2.92 SIERA over these four starts. But he’s given up five homers. Two on the splitter, which is pretty uncommon for the guy.
So I wouldn’t take the recent slump to mean anything. The Padres are a good matchup with a team .665 OPS this year. We know about the fact that Tatis has yet to homer, which is crazy. But the Padres are also getting brutal seasons from Jackson Merrill (.593 OPS) and Manny Machado (.611 OPS). Nothing is going right for them this year, and Yamamoto should be considered in all contests tonight. But I won’t blame anybody for balking at the $9,700 price tag for a guy averaging just 18.8 DraftKings points per start.
Bryan Woo ($9,000) vs. White Sox
The White Sox are always a little bit bothersome to start a pitcher against. Their second in the league in homers and are getting huge seasons from Murakami, Montgomery, and Vargas. Plus they have Antonacci now as a low-strikeout guy who can be a bit of a pest.
But I’m backing Woo tonight. He has back-to-back nine strikeout games, and he’s at home for this one. These White Sox hitters haven’t been to Seattle yet this year, so they’re not used to whatever goes there in Seattle that makes it tougher to hit. Woo has a 27% K% at home this year, and that follows his career splits as he’s always been dominant at home and just “pretty good” on the road.
The projection is large on Woo tonight, and he’s probably my favorite play.
MacKenzie Gore ($8,000) vs. Rockies
Gore’s coming off of a good start, albeit one where he didn’t get many strikeouts. Now he has to go into Coors to face the Rockies, taking his 10.8% BB% into the toughest park in the league to pitch in.
The Rockies at home this year: .263/.326/.425, .312 xwOBA, 22% K%
So nothing special in Coors for them, and the weather is in the favor of the pitchers in this one. You’d be full out crazy to start Gore in cash, and you probably don’t want to use him in your season-long fantasy leagues if you have the option tonight.
But for a tourney play, I’m still very interested in the guy, as I have been every other time he’s pitched this year. He has big strikeout upside, and the bad numbers on the season plus the Coors Field thing will keep his ownership low.
Ryan Weathers ($8,600) vs. Blue Jays
He doesn’t ever seem to be able to get into a consistent role. There are injuries and there are home runs in his past. But he’s going pretty good right now with four straight outings of 5+ innings and fewer than three earned runs.
His K% is way up there for the year at 30%, and he’s controlled the walks very well at a 7% BB%. The Blue Jays do not slug well. They’re at a team .371 SLG with just 42 homers all year long. But they do get ball into play with a team 18% K%, which is among the league’s best marks.
Against lefties: .222/.309/.344, 18% K%, 10% BB%, 46 PA/HR
They’re really not putting a hurting on anybody throwing with their left arm. Weathers K projection is down a touch from this, but it’s made up for by the low home run allowed projection and the high chance of beating Corbin for the win bonus. He’s in play.
Shota Imanaga ($9,500) vs. Brewers
The matchups model loves this spot for Imanaga. The Brewers do not hit these sorts of lefties well. That said, it’s a small sample in there, because there aren’t too many lefties that throw the ball like Imanaga does.
Great form for Imanaga: 28% K%, 6% BB%, .273 xwOBA, 5 HR
And the Brewers don’t hit super well: .243/.325/.360, .685 OPS
The Brew Crew against lefties this year: .209/.302/.294, 5 HR
It seems like a smash spot for the Cubs lefty. When he’s gotten himself into trouble, it’s been by giving up multiple homers. If the Brewers hit multiple homers off of him tonight, they’ll have hit almost 30% of their team homers against lefties for the entire year. Imanga is worth every penny tonight.
JT Ginn ($7,500) vs. Angels
The Angels strikeout problem has returned, and by a lot of metrics, they are the best matchup in the league for opposing pitchers.
Ginn isn’t the best guy to take advantage of a whiff-heavy team. His 19% K% this year is well below the league average, and he’s not piling up the called strikes either with a 9% BB% and a 37.3% Ball%.
He has the advantage of being right handed; the Angels really struggle with righties with a team .223/.307/.364 slash line with a 26.5% K%. You can save some money with Ginn. But I’d probably leave it for tourneys since we have several solid cash options.