MLB DW [NIGHT] Slate Preview - April 23
I'm back to go deep into the Wednesday night slate of games
Earlier, I said that I’d just keep updating the post I sent out earlier today. But I’ve scrapped that idea and have decided to just do a fresh one. It makes me feel better.
This will be a little something special for the DFS people out there. I love the game, and I really like this slate, so I want to get deep into it for once. Let’s go game-by-game through the eight-game DraftKings DFS slate. I’m going to mass enter tonight to see what we can do, so we’ll explore a wide variety of plays and angles.
Dodgers vs. Cubs
It is still not clear who the starter is for the Dodgers, but our best guess is Noah Davis. If it is him, it won’t be a long outing. He’s been a reliever in AAA so far this year. So let’s check on that Dodgers bullpen:
Pretty, pretty good! Ignore the duplicate Luis Garcia row there… don’t get me started.
I do not think it is wise to get into the Cubs’ lineup against this Dodgers bullpen. It’s possible the Cubs pull ahead early in this one and end up facing the weaker arms in that pen, avoiding the big boys, but it’s not an easy task to face a new pitcher every inning. No Cubs hitter is likely to get two looks at anybody in particular, and most of these arms coming out of that pen are very capable. I mean, they are all green in the xwOBA allowed column. So I think it’s a hands-off for the Cubs offense.
As for Matthew Boyd, I don’t think we can get behind him at $8,000 in this wicked matchup.
Boyd should see the strikeout rate tick up from what we’ve seen so far this year, but he hasn’t been a guy blowing anybody away these last two seasons, and it’s pretty tough to put up a decent score against LA. If the price was $6500, I’d consider having some - but I don’t think we can do it tonight.
Dodgers Bat
We probably want to explore the Dodgers here. Boyd isn’t awful, but he’s not someone to completely avoid, either - especially not with a strong unit like the Dodgers.
You can see all of the green there. Tommy Edman ($4,100) has just been on a mission against left-handed pitching with that .405 xwOBA and 16% K% since last year. And you have super green marks with Ohtani, Betts, Hernandez, and Smith. Some Dodgers stacks are a must tonight.
The one thing I will say is that I can probably get behind fading Ohtani at the $6,500 tag. He does tend to strike out a bit against lefties, and the stolen base stuff is always lower with a lefty staring at you if you do get to first. And at that price, he can hit a homer and it’s not the end of the world if you don’t have any.
Plays
Dodgers bats (Betts, Hernandez, Edman, Smith being the favorites)
White Sox vs. Twins
Bryse Wilson is one of the worst pitchers that has been allowed to throw triple-digit innings since last season. He just keeps finding work on bad teams. You can see the struggles there on the bottom left. Everybody smashes him, but he is pretty hopeless against lefties. The bullpen behind him is not much better:
Twins Bats
I don’t think you have to avoid righties, but it will always make some sense to favor the platoon advantage.
Let’s check the splits stats from 2024-2025:
Plenty of home run possibilities here, especially with a breeze out to center. The Twins will certainly be popular, but I think I’d rather go for an “over-exposure” than a fade just to be contrarian about it.
Let’s check the algorithm matchup data (this is the one that looks at the hitters against the type of stuff they’ll see tonight):
I don’t think there’s enough ceiling in guys like Brooks Lee and Harrison Bader to consider for DFS when going for a big score, but the rest of the Twins are going in my player pool.
David Festa
He will be a bit popular tonight, as any talented pitcher vs. CWS is. The price is up there to match the spot though, and $8,800 is pretty aggressive for Festa. He has thrown 64 and 76 pitches in his two MLB starts so far, and they are not afraid to pull him before the fifth inning ends.
They also have a fully available bullpen, so there’s now extra motivation for the Twins to get Festa deep into the game. That said, they played yesterday and they play tomorrow, so they do not have an offday this week. So maybe they will let Festa go. I certainly don’t think he’ll have much trouble getting outs in this spot.
I don’t want to go Festa-crazy and play him 80% of the time or something, but I’ll have some of him in the lineups.
Plays
David Festa
Julien, Buxton, Keaschall, Larnach, Correa, France, Jeffers
I’m grinding through every game here, but you’ll have to be a paid sub to get the rest.