Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
There’s no consistency to anything I do. I think these posts have a different title format every time. I have such a sloppy way of doing work. If this is even “work”. I’m honestly a terrible worker.
The one thing I do is show up. I at least have that going for me. I am the king of “meeting expectations”. I get that same rating every single year, 12 years running baby. I’m an expectations-meeter. There are no gold stars; I’m not getting the highest grades. But what you find as you grow up is that most are idiots. I mean, really, some people just have no idea how to get by. They call off, they completely ignore stuff. They don’t reply to e-mails. They do weird, sexually deviant stuff. And that’s not me. I will reply to your emails and I will not sexually harass you.
And that, young men, is the key to success in the American economy. But let’s sexually harass this baseball slate (figuratively).
Listen to this song while you read it.
Not everybody drinks whiskey… not everybody drinks beer. Some people roll tide, some people buckeye, some volunteer. Some have babies, some have none. Some preach peace and some preach guns.
So when I sit down with my six-string and try to write something that we can all sing, half the time there’s only one thing I know to do…
I’ve got all these songs about dying… but it’s the only thing that everybody does.
I love that song.
Weather
One trouble spot, Atlanta at Boston. But we have yellow/green, so it should be fine.
BOOM HITTERS
Home Run Model
We are at +33 units on this HR model this year. It’s not as impressive as it sounds. It’s recommended 1,048 home run hitters this year. So that’s .03 units per bet. But a win is a win? lol
Implied Totals
Not All Japanese Pitchers Created Equal
God loves Tomoyuki Sugani to the same extent as He does Shohei Ohtani. But Ohtani is better at baseball. They’re both pretty much infinitely better than you and I, but we’re comparing apples to apples here, and the Ohtani apple has a -424 line by its name tonight. The implied total there is Dodgers 6.5 to Rockies 1.9. This is probably the biggest mismatch of the season.
The Dodgers clear the Yankees by a full run on the board tonight.
COLE TRAIN IN KC
Gerrit Cole makes his second start after a successful return. He’ll take on Noah Cameron in Kansas City. The Yankees are only -157 here after being south of -200 last night. That speaks to the hesitancy on Cole, which is right.
But Cameron hasn’t had it. He rocks a 4.13 JA ERA this year with a 21% K% and a 7.6% BB%. The splits are close to even.
This is surprising to me, because I thought Cameron was worse than this. He has a 15% K-BB% in his last four starts with a 3.89 JA ERA. So he’s been a little better. 21:7 K:BB in his last four as the schedule has loosened up (ATH/DET/STL/SEA).
But the Yankees put a hurting on dudes. Their team .769 OPS is second-best in the game (LAD) and they lead the league with 82 bomb jobs. That’s eight homers clear of the Braves for the top spot. And that’s with Aaron Judge not even leading the American League in homers. He’s fourth in MLB with 17 and has just one in his last 61 PAs. But who cares about that. You shouldn’t care about that. Small samples are dumb.
Cameron pitched very well last year in terms of limiting damage, and he’s been back to that lately. I don’t think he’s good, but the pitchers we really want to stack against are the dudes who give up a mess of homers. And he doesn’t do that. Just a 42 PA/HR for Cameron this year, and it was better than that last year.
The Yankees might be a reasonable fade at high ownership tonight.
TAILLON’S RETURN
The Pirates picked Jameson Taillon with the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Behind one Manny Machado. And he’s made a long career for himself since then, but the guy is down bad this year.
The numbers to highlight here.
14.5% Brl% allowed
25% HR/FB
.356 xwOBA allowed
38% FB%
Left-handed hitters have a 26% GB% against him this year. He’s given up ten bombs to lefties on 509 pitches.
Here’s the pitch mix results against lefties this year:
Look at that 65% FB% on the fastball. A 5% GB!! Truly insane numbers here.
And this is the wrong spot for him to be in. PNC Park is pretty friendly to left-handed power, and the Pirates have built this roster around that fact. Their big offseason acquisitions were both left-handed guys with power. O’Hearn is on the IL, so that takes a lefty out of the lineup. But they still have Horwitz (red hot and simply a very good MLB hitter), Lowe, Reynolds, and Cruz ready to cause some problems for Taillon.
Fire up the top of the Pirates lineup. And it’s not like you have to avoid righties, who have a .314 xwOBA and seven homers off Taillon this year.
I imagine they get our king from last night Esmerlyn Valdez back in the lineup after he’s homered twice in 14 PAs to start his MLB career. So it’s a pretty good lineup. The markets like the Bucs for good reason.
Those are your three teams above a five-run implication. Dodgers, Yankees, and the freaking Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s a beautiful thing.