MLB DW Slate Breakdown - April 13
DFS and betting strategy and picks for the Monday slate of MLB action
Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
NEW TOOLS
I added a STOLEN BASE BETTING CHEAT SHEET to the MLB DW Daily Matchups Cheat Sheet Google sheet. There’s a ton of stuff in there.
This thing compares my stolen base projection for each player with what the book lines are giving. It merges in some of the stolen base attempt rate data and the sprint speed data to give you a good luck at where the best bets for steals here.
Let’s take an example for today to get to know the sheet.
The Phillies Justin Crawford has a +775 price for over 0.5 steals on MGM. That +775 would imply 0.12 steals from Crawford. My projection for him is 0.19, well above the betting line. My model, then, would say that +775 for Crawford is a steal (pun!).
In that same sheet, you’ll see his 32% attempt rate from 2025-2026, that’s obviously mostly minor league data. This year in the Majors he’s at just 13.3%, which is still decent, but nowhere near where he was last year.
And that’s where this value comes from. My model is giving his minor league data a lot of influence still, which I think it should in this regard. You’ll also notice his elite 28.9 sprint speed on the sheet, and that gives you another idea that he will be a steals guy in the Majors.
Nick Yorke is #2. He had a 16% attempt rate last year, but hasn’t attempted one yet this year. That turns his FanDUel price to +1200. My model thinks it should be lower than that.
A more likely hit would be Pete Crow-Armstrong at +580 on FanDuel. I have him for .187 steals tonight, the book lie says .16. So a bit of a gap there and a good price.
Home Run Props
We also have another home run cheat sheet that compares projections with the books. We can find some interesting long shot bets with that business going on.
Roman Anthony +575 on MGM
Randy Arozarena +820 on DraftKings
Tyler Soderstromg +630 on FanDuel
Ryan Jeffers +980 on FanDuel
Luke Raley +780 on DraftKings
Colton Cowser +670 on DraftKings
Other Prop Misprices
Justin Wrobleski under 2.5 walks -197
Victor Cartini under 1.5 hitter strikeouts -190
Yusei Kuchi over 15.5 outs +155
Will Warren over 6.5 strikeouts +152
Ryne Nelson over 5.5 strikeouts +136
Paul Skenes under 16.5 outs +140
The prop bet recommendation tracker will get going in another week or two once we have enough data for it to be useful. Hopefully we can find some winning formulas and then auto-populate those +EV bets in the app for PRO members.
More to come on that!
DFS SLATE PREVIEW
This is a nine-game slate that start at 6:35.
Implied Run Totals
#1 Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi
They lead the slate in implied total getting a home game against Kikuchi tonight. Kikuchi has a 13.6% K-BB% with a 3.71 JA SIERA and a high 27% and 9% Brl% allowed. He’s been hit hard again this year with a .468 SLG allowed. To his credit, the .312 xwOBA isn’t so bad, and he does have a high 1.6% SwStr% powered by his good slider.
He’s really tough on lefties (28% K%, .294 xwOBA) against them the last two years. So maybe you don’t want to go full Yankees stack with Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm involved. But it’s a great night to play some Aaron Judge ($6,400). And we’ll probably get a nice value projection on Paul Goldschmidt.