MLB DW Slate Breakdown - April 24
Breaking down one of the biggest DFS slates of the year! Plus some algo-recommended player props
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Game Info
A 13-game slate! Let me not information overload you guys and just show you the top implied totals for this one:
Braves vs. Andrew Painter: Surprising to see this one. The Braves are buried down at #17 in projected fantasy points for this one. But they have a lot of hitters, and they’ve been crushing the ball for most of this year. Painter has a bad fastball, but at least he throws it hard, and he has a very deep pitch mix to keep guys off balance with. I’m not loading up on Braves tonight, I don’t think.
Dodgers vs. Jameson Taillon: Taillon hasn’t been as bad as he’s looked in the ERA column, but he’s at a 19% K% over these last two seasons with an 8.7% Brl% allowed and a 4.25 xERA. Lefites have a 10.3% Brl% off of him with a 34% GB%, so this is a terrific home run spot for Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, and the rest of the Dodgers.
Yankees vs. Lance McCullers: The first start of his was a total fakeout. He’s down to a 23% K% with a 13.3% BB% over these last two seasons. The one thing he’s decent at is not giving up homers; the main strength of the Yankees lineup. But there’s likely to be a bunch of traffic on the bases for the Yanks, making those bombs (if they do come) more valuable.
White Sox vs. Nationals: For DFS purposes, since price is such an important consideration, it makes a lot of sense to target these offenses that you don’t usually see at the top of the board. And the White Sox get Miles Mikolas tonight, one of the most hittable pitchers in the league.
Mets vs. Rockies: The Rockies had to fly from Colorado to New York for this, which is always a brutal spot for them. It’s Michael Lorenzen making the start, another super hittable pitcher. The Mets have Soto back, but they lost Lindor. So it’s not a stacked lineup, but there are plenty of dudes you can play against Lorenzen and one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Rangers vs. Athletics: It’s Luis Severino going for the A’s. Severino’s WBC and spring velo hasn’t stuck around. His fastball has been at 96 the last two outings. Which is still a decent amount of velo, but he’s not pushing 97-98 like he was in a few spots earlier this year. It’s in Arlington, which is a much worse spot for hitting than Sacramento, but the markets like the Rangers to score some runs tonight.
Pitchers to Target for Homers
Your worst xERAs among pitchers going tonight:
Mikolas 4.88 (vs CWS)
McCullers 4.77 (vs NYY)
Scherzer 4.71 (vs CLE)
Lorenzen 4.65 (vs NYM
Severino 4.61 (vs TEX
Bello 4.53 (vs BAL)
Kikuchi 4.53 (vs KC)
BOOM HITTERS
DFS Pitcher Targets
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CASH OPTIONS
Freddy Peralta ($8.8K) vs. COL: The Rockies do not hit well in their first game out of Coors, and they didn’t even have the day off between games in this case. Peralta is down at $8,800 with the slate’s highest projection. All systems go for Freddy.
Paul Skenes ($10.0K) vs. MIL: The model surprisingly loves this matchup for Skenes. I think this might be his best projection of the year. The Brewers usually give you fits, but the lineup, at least on paper, is nothing special. And Skenes’ is fully ramped up into regular season mode. It should be a nice outing for the Pirates ace.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8.5) vs. ATH: The Athletics on the road since last year have a 24% K% with a .318 xwOBA. They’re very beatable, and this shift in park is a huge downgrade for home run hitting probabilities. This year, they have a team 27% K% on the road and 24% overall. And Eovaldi has been good at preventing the homer. Dating back to last year he’s given up just a 41 PA/HR, a very nice number. He keeps the ball on the ground (52% GB%) and limits hard contact overall (.289 xwoBA). Fantastic spot for Eovaldi, and he’s usually not very highly owned.
Those are the three I’m liking for cash game considerations. And I think Peralta + Eovaldi for the $17,300 is the way to go. Picking on the Brewers, especially at home, never seems to go well. And Skenes has to do a lot to make a $10K price tag a “must have”.
Little dashboard tip here. To see home/road stats for an offense, go to the Team O tab, select their home park, and then hit the down arrow and select “Exclude Values”, this filters out those games at that chosen park.
PITCHER FADES AT HIGH OWNERSHIP
Gavin Williams vs. TOR: A 19% ownership projection. People are believing in Gavin. I can’t get there with his high walk rate, especially against a Toronto lineup that has one of the game’s lowest team strikeout rates.
Will Warren vs. HOU: The Astros are a bit of a juggernaut this year behind the resurgent Yordan Alvarez. Warren has been better against lefties this year, but I don’t know how. He has just a 9.4% SwStr% with a .330 xwOBA allowed against them.
George Kirby vs. STL: He’s very had to trust from start-to-start. The K% is down to 21% this year, and the Cardinals don’t strike out much.
Taj Bradley vs. TB
VALUE PLAYS
I think we should pay up for pitching in a single or three-max approach tonight. With 26 teams on the slate, it won’t be hard to find value bats to free up the money. But for tourneys, here are some lower-priced options with upside:
Yusei Kikuchi ($6,400) vs. KC
Brayan Bello ($6,600) vs. BAL
Grant Holmes ($7,700) vs. PHI
Max Scherzer ($6,700) vs. CLE
TOURNEY PITCHER POOL
Peralta ($8,800) vs. COL
Skenes ($10,000) vs. MIL
Those two are both almost four points clear in projection on the rest of the slate. So, if you believe in the projections, you should have plenty of that duo.
George Kirby ($9,500) vs. STL
I know I just poo-poo’d him in the cash avoids list. But Kirby still has big stuff and throws a lot of strikes, and the pitch counts have pushed above 90 in the last two. He’s got plenty of upside if things are working for him tonight.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,300) vs. PIT
Jacob deGrom showed what a talented pitcher can still do to the Pirates. Woody has looked fine this year, and he’s still healthy. The price is too high, but for tourneys, that doesn’t matter if he tops the slate in scoring - which is very possible.
Hitters
Highest Team Ownership Projections
Yankees
White Sox
Nationals
Phillies
Braves
Low Owned Stack Leverage
Red Sox
Rays
Giants
Hitter Stacks (1-5 hitters)
TOP RAW PROJECTIONS
Dodgers 46.6
Yankees 46.1
Phillies 43.6
Royals 43.1
Red Sox 42.1
TOP VALUES
Mets 2.2x
Royals 2.15x
Blue Jays 2.1x
Mariners 2.1x
Guardians 2.1x
I like these “wraparound stacks”, going 9-1-2. The 9-1-2 is highly correlated, but people don’t like to play the #9 hitter cause he’ll typically come up short a PA. The best three spots for the 9-1-2 wraparound (this assumes the projected lineup is right… which is often not the case)
SEA 2.3x
Leo Rivas (9)
JP Crawford (1)
Cal Raleigh (2)
TOR 2.2x
Tyler Heineman (9)
Nathan Lukes (1)
Ernie Clement (2)
Three pretty gross hitters there, but they’re very cheap and Gavin Williams gives a lot of those free two-point walks away.
NYM 2.2x
Carson Benge (9)
Marcus Semien (1)
Juan Soto (2)
TOP HITTER PLAYS
CATCHER
Will Smith $4,100
Cal Raleigh $4,900
Drake Baldwin $5,000
Ivan Herrera $4,000
Bo Naylor $2,600
FIRST BASE
Shohei Ohtani $6,600
Bryce Harper $4,700
Nick Kurtz $5,300
Kyle Manzardo $3,000
Ben Rice $5,500
Michael Busch $3,900
SECOND BASE
Jazz Chisholm $3,900
Brandon Lowe $5,700
Bryson Stott $3,100
Marcus Semien $2,80
Richie Palacios $3,500
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez $6,300
Junior Caminero $5,200
Maikel Garcia $4,800
Matt Chapman $4,700
Austin Riley $4,000
Alex Bregman $4,200
SHORTSTOP
Bobby Witt Jr. $5,800
Corey Seager $5,100
Gunnar Henderson $5,900
Trea Turner $4,700
Willy Adames $4,200
Zach Neto $5,300
OUTFIELD
Shohei Ohtani $6,600
Aaron Judge $6,500
Yordan Alvarez $6,400
Lane Thomas $2,000
Ronald Acuna Jr. $5,300
Trent Grisham $3,700
Byron Buxton $5,200
Oneil Cruz $6,200
Julio Rodriguez $4,200
Kyle Schwarber $5,700
Jakob Marsee $4,500
Isaac Collins $2,100
Adolis Garcia $3,100
Wilyer Abreu $4,400
Mike Trout $5,900
Brandon Nimmo $5,000
Kyle Tucker $6,100
Optimal Lineup
SP Skenes $10,000
SP Peralta $8,800
C Sal Perez $3,400
1B Ohtani $6,600
2B Chisholm Jr. $3,900
3B Bichette $3,700
SS Witt Jr. $5,800
OF Grisham $3,700
OF Collins $2,000
OF Thomas $3,700
Optimizer Plays
I loaded up 50 lineups through the optimizer with projection variance on there to see the guys who come up most often in the lineups:
PITCHERS
Peralta 94%
Skenes 64%
Eovaldi 28%
Rasmussen 10%
McCullers 4%
HITTERS
Lane Thomas 54%
Ohtani 52%
Sal Perez 40%
Grisham 36%
Chisholm 36%
Witt 32%
Caminero 32%
Collins 32%
Will Smith 28%
Judge 22%
Adolis Garcia 22%
Manzardo 20%
Harper 18%
JP Crawford 18%
Soto 16%
Seager 16%
Abreu 16%
Riley 16%
Palcios 16%
Semien 16%
Sides & Totals
Tigers moneyline (-131): I like Framber a whole lot better than Abbott, especially in Great American Ballpark where you want as many ground balls are you can get.
Pirates/Brewers Under Seven Runs (+104): I’ve been watching the Pirates, and I’m worried the hot offensive start is done.
Rays moneyline (-131): I’m fading Bradley, and this is a great spot for Rasmussen. They’ll still need 3-4 innings from the bullpen as always in Rasmussen starts, but I think the Rays jump out early on Bradley and get the job done.
Mets run line (-1.5, +100): Always smart to bet against the Rockies in these spots.
Home Run Model Picks
Colton Cowser +900
Roman Anthony +550
Michael Busch +534
Royce Lewis +760
Willy Adames +600
Kyle Tucker +570
PCA +590
Daulton Varsho +600
O’Hoppe +780
Alonso +514
Stolen Base Model Picks
Caballero +275
Crow-Armstrong +500
Justin Crawford +670
Bryce Teodsoio +875
Willy Adames +750
Price Advantaged Props
Framber Valdez over 6.5 K +179
Paul Skenes over 7.5 K +170
Andres Gimenez under 0.5 strikeouts +150
George Kirby under 17.5 outs ++150
Rafael Devers over 0.5 runs +140
Drew Rasmussen over 15.5 outs +132