MLB DW Slate Breakdown - June 18th
A look at a small night slate that's going to get smaller
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It’s not a great night to play DFS. There are five games scheduled, but we’re likely to see a washout in SF/ATL.
The game cards:
Game Info
Runs have been plentiful in Sacramento. It’s not scorching there tonight but in the upper-70s, and the winds are blowing out. I watched a little bit of the Pirates series out there, and they should probably consider raising that wall in right field. It’s kind of a joke.
The good news for the Angels is that they have ground baller Jose Soriano going for them. He’ll probably embrace the sinker and just do everything possible to keep the ball on the ground to combat that park factor.
Gage Jump is on the other side, and I kinda believe in him as well.
But nonetheless, we have a 10.5 run total on a four-game slate, so we’re going to have to go to that game for some bats, I think. I do think there’s a nice tourney angle to fade that game.
The backup game to attack would be the Yankees & White Sox. That one has a 9.5 O/U with the Yankees implied for 5.8 of those runs. It’s Sean Burke for the White Sox. And he’s held his own this year, but the Yankees just keep giving pitchers trouble even without Judge. They’re still the third-toughest matchup for pitchers even since losing Judge.
Pitcher Projections
Ryan Weathers ($9,100) has been giving up a bunch of runs lately, and the White Sox can still hit even without Murakami. But my love for Weathers remains. He still possesses a K-BB% over 20% on the year, and that’s always the most important thing. He’s the top projected arm by a good margin on an ugly pitching slate.
Sean Manaea ($6,500) is in play for sure. He’s quite possibly the cash pairing with Weathers. He is on one of those nice streaks of his with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an 18.6% K-BB% in the last six outings since he’s been getting stretched out again. Last time he started and threw six innings, so he’s ready for the bulk again. The Phillies are tough, but much less tough against lefties. Great spot for Manaea, time to pounce on this price.
Aaron Nola ($7,500) has not been nearly as bad as his ERA lets on, and the price is pretty cheap on a slate where it’s tough to find pitching. You’ve gotta include him in your tourney builds.
Noah Cameron ($7,300) is low-floor, low-ceiling, but he has the ability to put up some 6-7 inning outings with good success. We just saw a really nice stretch of starts come to an end, and he’s done enough in his year in the Majors to make me think he could find his way to be a Max Fried Lite style pitcher. The matchup with the Cardinals is probably about a middle-of-the-pack option, but I like the price there enough to put him in the tourney pool.
If you wanna get crazy in tourneys, Jose Soriano ($10,000) is a guy who can go out and throw up a complete game if he’s getting a ton of ground balls and they’re quickly going right at guys. The price is absurd, of course. He’s the lowest value (1.3x) on the slate, so it’s a terrible idea generally - but he could absolutely lead this slate in points scored at like 10% ownership.
Pitcher SIM Results
I am really enjoying the GAME SIM page here in day two. Here are the results for the sim of tonight’s slate:
Weathers + Manaea confirmed as the best duo. And we see a pretty good showing from Gage Jump a good percentage of the time.
Those are my three guys. I’m basically treating this slate as if SF/ATL isn’t on it - but that could change. The weather is weird. I was supposed to be sucked up into a tornado by now, but I’m totally dry.
And I don’t hate Matthew Liberatore ($6,000) at all for tourneys. He’s been getting strikeouts lately, he has 31 of those in his last five starts. The Royals don’t strike out a ton, but they don’t present a ton of resistance run-scoring wise.
So the tourney pool for me would: Weathers, Manaea, Soriano, Jump, Nola, Liberatore, Cameron
I guess that’s basically the entire player pool. I’d probably go with something like Jump + Liberatore in a single entry tourney build if I’m really focused on getting low-owned pitchers.
Hitters - Team Projections
Value with the cheap White Sox in a plus home run spot against Weathers in Yankees Stadium. They’re a viable tourney stack.
The cash lineup should probably stick to ATH + LAA + NYY.
Hitters - Top Plays
The Angels trio leads the way. That’s a bet against Gage Jump, who I kinda like - but absolutely it could go very poorly for him in this park. The Angels also project much better against lefties, so that’s why you’re seeing the Adell + Trout + Neto trio there.
I think that’s a reasonable starting spot for cash:
The big appeal of the park in Sacramento is homers. Soriano has given up nine of those in 87 innings (0.93 HR/9). But he hasn’t had to pitch in a ballpark like this year.