MLB DW Slate Breakdown - May 21
Covering a short slate of MLB action for Thursday
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Not a good day for DFS. A two-game early slate and then a four-gamer for the night slate. On days like these, I prefer to just forget about baseball for the night and give my brain a day off. Grab a book or something.
But let’s go through some of these games to talk about some ball and hand out some ideas. I’ll make it quick so we can get this through in time for the start of the action.
BOOM Hitters
In some ways, Dustin May pitches right into the Pirates strength. They have one of the league’s highest GB%, but it’s worked pretty well for them so far this year. And that’s what May does. He gives up a bunch of pretty hard hit ground ball and line drives. So the Pirates should do pretty well here, and if they get a decent outing from Braxton Ashcraft, they should win this game. I guess you could say that for any team ever. If they get a good start from their pitcher, they should win the game! But I like the matchups model data on the Pirates side.
Ben Rice, Spencer Torkelson, Mike Trout, and Corbin Carroll are your BOOM home run bets.
Model Recommended HR Bets
Jo Adell +520 on FanDuel
Wencell Perez +1080 on DraftKings
Hunter Goodman +470 on FanDuel
Mike Yastrzemski +790 on FanDuel
Model Recommended SB Bets
Trevor hit the Antonacci bet again yesterday in addition to hitting two homer picks. Here’s what we have today on the SB recommendation model:
Victor Scott +550 on FanDuel
AJ Ewing +640 on FanDuel
Konnor Griffin +390 on FanDuel
Javier Sanoja 850 on FanDuel
O/U Picks
We have two spots lighting up the board in the O/U model today.
Athletics at Angels Over 8.5
Pirates at Cardinals Over 7
Pitcher Projections
Pretty low projections everywhere. Spencer Strider and Carlos Rodon are the most interesting men today.
Strider has a 31% K% this year, but an ugly 17% BB%. He hasn’t had the touch. He’s throwing 49% four-seamers, 28% sliders, 17% curveballs, and 6.5% changeups. They’ve all been good pitches. He has high whiff rates on all of them with a 17.2% SwStr% overall. Hitters haven’t squared him up yet, either, at a .271 xwOBA and a .313 SLG.
The Marlins against righties:
Not much splits difference going on there. They are a below average, but not terrible offense this year.
Strider will have to face six lefties today. So the curveball is going to have to come into play. Overall, I think I’d be on the unders on Strider. I’m not convinced he’s good, and he’s had home run issues in the past, and the Marlins have a couple of dudes who can hit the long ball.
Carlos Rodon will make his third start. He threw 78 pitches the first time and 88 the last time. So he’s ramepd up. But he has a 10:8 K:BB so far with a 12.7% SwStr%. These game typically take a couple of starts to get the command going.
So maybe we could lean into that. Some sort of Strider and Rodon over 1.5 or over 2.5 walks parlay.
Rodon is up against the Blue Jays, where strikeouts are tough to come by. So I wouldn’t expect a ton. But I would start him in season long leagues.
I’m not giving you much today, I know, we’ll do better tomorrow. But it’s been a rough morning for your boy!
Main DFS Slate Picks
DFS specific pitcher projections:
Hard to find a good cash play on that board. I think you can go to Jose Soriano and then maybe take a shot on the expensive Spencer Strider. He should be getting the command back, at least down to a 10-11% BB% pretty soon, and the whiffs we’ve seen so far have been very encouraging.
Eduardo Rodriguez gets the Road Rockies, and he’s pitched pretty well recently. He’s in play, and maybe even for cash if you don’t want to spend up on Strider.
Luis Severino gets the elite matchup as a righty against the Angels. It didn’t go how we wanted it for Civale last night, but Severino is a better pitcher than Civale, so I think he can find some success here against a whiff-heavy Angels lineup that does most of their damage against lefties.
And maybe Carlos Rodon will find the command and really get it going. His velo has been fine. And the price is very cheap on DFS slates tonight. So I like him for tourneys.
Hitter Projections
Snakes and Yanks for stacking. Angels if you don’t believe in Severino and want some cheaper upside picks. And it’s not crazy to go to the Rockies against E-Rod. I like Hunter Goodman in that spot since he’s not been bothered by the road stuff like most of his teammates in these last two years.
Top Plays
Top Values
That’s all I’ve got! Looking forward to tomorrow night with another full Friday slate.