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Greetings from a rest stop on the Ohio Turnpike. I’m heading back home, but pulled over for a few minutes to bang out this Saturday slate.
Weather
Looks like some questionable spots in Boston (TB vs BOS) and Cleveland (MIN vs CLE). Probably want to ease off of those spots for pitchers, but no PPD is guaranteed. Roth thinks Boston has a good PPD chance, and he says the Cleveland game might be delayed but they should be able to play it. And they’re clearly pretty willing to play in the rain, because I got soaked last night!
Day Slate
Baltimore vs. Civale
The Orioles haven’t been splashing GPP stack-worthy scores this year, but they’re well suited for a nice game today against Aaron Civale:
No real splits advantage against Civale in the shorter sample size here. He’s pretty poor against everybody, and he has a knack for giving up the long ball.
Cincinnati vs. Spencer Arrighetti
The Reds at #2 against Arrighetti speaks to the lack of great options on this slate. Arrighetti is far from a gas can type, and he’s been pretty good all things considered in the early going of his 2026 season. But the spaghetti man has been hit hard by lefties:
And the Reds usually line up a bunch of lefties (Friedl, Bleday, Elly) at the top of the lineup in these spots.
Miami vs. Zack Littell
Oh yeah! Littell has given up homers at a rate you rarely see. And it stretches back to last year as well. He’s given up 2.0 HR/9 in his last 37 starts.
Maybe we can get some action going on Kyle Stowers and Owen Caissie, two power lefties who can certainly get the ball in the air with some EV.
Blue Jays vs. Kochanowicz
Picking on J-Koch hasn’t worked this year. He has a hugely elevated GB% this year, which has helped. But he still gives up a ton of contact, which is the Blue Jays specialty. In some ways, their offense plays right into what Kochanowicz is trying to do. You’re not likely to get multiple homers from Toronto, but they could rack up 8+ hits if the BABIP variance goes their way. I don’t see Toronto going down on strikes more than a handful of times in this game.