MLB DW Slate Preview - April 10
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
I’m going to do this a bit differently today. Let’s go game by game and break down the slate. There’s only one game where weather is a factor, and that is tonight in Atlanta. There’s a five-game main afternoon slate for DFS, so that’s playable.
Angels vs. Rays
We have Jose Soriano vs. Zack Littell in this one.
Soriano has had two very different results. He was his usual self in start one (not many strikeouts but a bunch of ground balls), and then he struck out a bunch of dudes in the second start. For the year, he’s at a 30% K% and an 11% BB%. I don’t think he’s going to be anywhere near that strikeout-wise for long. He’s throwing this heavy sinker 58% of the time. The Rays’ lineup doesn’t take a ton of walks, so I think Soriano is going to get deep into this one. He’ll have to throw balls near the strike zone, of course, but this is a decent spot for him to be efficient. Now, that can all go wrong if the ground balls aren’t hit at his fielders. Soriano will never be super reliable start-to-start. At $8,800, I have to call Soriano a DFS fade. The projection model likes his under 4.5 hits allowed and even the over 4.5 strikeouts line. Personally, those don’t interest me. It’s too hard to rely on the guy. But it’s also hard to target hitters against him, since he’s so tough to get into the air.
As for Littell. He’s off to a nice start to his 2025 season, and he will see a bunch of right-handed hitters in this Angels lineup. Since last season he’s posted a 23% K% and a 3.4% BB% with a .304 xwOBA allowed to righties. With the lower overall strikeout rate (21%), you can’t put a ton of trust into him, but this does seem like a good matchup for him.
The price of $8,500 isn’t all that great, though. He’s the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate. I’m not sure his strikeout upside justifies that. But we’ll see who else we have as we go.
Mike Trout ($5,500) and Logan O’Hoppe ($4,300) are the two bats I have the most interest here on the DFS slate. Other than that, I think I’m off of this game.
I did want to lay out one prop bet for each game just to have some fun tracking them through the day. So let’s go with Jose Soriano over 16.5 outs recorded (-120)
White Sox vs. Guardians
This is a huge spot for Gavin Williams, as he’ll take on Jonathan Cannon. It has not been good out of the gate for Williams (19% K%, 11% BB%, 10.7% SwStr%), but you can’t find a better matchup than this one.
We know the upside he has, so I’m going to go for it here. The White Sox are hitting just .150/.218/.224 against four-seamers so far. And Williams has a good four-seamer. I don’t want to bet on his strikeouts, because the White Sox have put a lot fo balls in play so far this year (22% K%, 75% Contact%), so I’m looking more into Williams getting deep into the game.
Let’s add a little SGP to the ticket:
→ Gavin Williams to win (+140)
→ Gavin Williams over 15.5 outs (+100)
DFS-wise, we want to load up on some Guardians bats. Jonathan Cannon has given up a .325 xwOBA with a very poor 9% K-BB% since last year. Lefties have really smoked him (.343 xwOBA, 2.22 WHIP+). Your Cleveland bats to use in DFS:
→ Jose Ramirez ($5,900)
→ Bo Naylor ($2,500)
→ Nolan Jones ($3,600)
→ Kyle Manzardo ($4,500)
Twins vs. Royals
We have the buy-low opportunity here on Bailey Ober. You can grab an over 4.5 strikeouts line on him for +-130 on DraftKings. I’m locking that in, and I think I’m going to use him as a DFS pitcher for $7,700.
Michael Wacha is on the other side for $7,000. He’s not much of a DFS play with his 21% K%, but he’s also not a guy you typically want to stack hitters against (.316 xwOBA allowed). The Twins will get some balls in play, but Wacha isn’t likely to blow up in this spot.
Matt Wallner ($4,100) stands out nonetheless as a guy who hits righties very well and is leading off today. He’s a DFS play.
It’s also a good spot for the Royals as far as hitting homers goes. Ober does give up a ton of fly balls. Kauffman Stadium is a pretty safe place to do that, so I think I will fade all Royals bats here (especially since I’m playing Ober in my single lineup), but it’s always possible to get a few bombs against Ober.