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Temperatures are up, and the league SLG was raised by five points yesterday after a barrage of homers.
We’re looking at high temps again tonight.
We’re in the 80s in a few spots
Angels/Yankees
Royals/Tigers
Guardians/Cardinals
DBacks/Orioles
Cubs/Phillies
Marlins/Braves
Here’s the weather grid from Kevin Roth. You can check this out daily (free) at PropFinder.app/Weather.
Some yellows! So it’s not a totally clear night rain-wise. I don’t think it’s enough to make us change our DFS approach, but it’s definitely worth a refresh around 5pm.
BETTING PICKS
Trevor had a huge night on Monday. He got ahead of blast-off night and had a Judge/Schwarber parlay plus a Ketel Marte pick. Those paid off big. We’re now +4.68 units on the tracker on 44 recommendations since late last week when I was confident enough to start tracking.
HOME RUN CHEAT SHEET
This is strictly projection-based. We’re looking for prices that the projection model disagrees with. They’ll typically be longer-shot bets. Here’s what we have on tap tonight:
TJ Friedl +1220 (DK)
Yainer Diaz +920 (FanDuel)
Heliot Ramos +820 (FanDuel)
Heriberto Hernandez +990 (DraftKings)
Graham Pauley +1040 (FanDuel)
Some more likely hits:
Sam Basallo +523 (DraftKings)
Shea Langeliers +570 (FanDuel)
Nick Kurtz +600 (DraftKings)
I’ll put all of those on the tracker for today as recommended picks for our usual 0.25 units.
STOLEN BASE CHEAT SHEET
Same thing with this one, it compares projections with the lines and finds the most advantageous prices.
Nasim Nunez +270
Justin Crawford +725
Pete Crow-Armstrong +430
Luisangel Acuna +550
Lawrence Butler +700
A Nasim Nunez and Justin Crawford parlay pays +2254. I’m adding that to the tracker.
BET: Nasim Nunez + Justin Crawford over 0.5 SB +2254
0.25 Units