MLB DW Slate Preview - April 16
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
I am slammed with stuff going on today and we have day games, so this will be brief.
We have Spencer Strider returning. We’ll get to see him right away, as the Braevs game starts at 1:07pm eastern today. It’s good to have Strider back, the guy is electric. Very fun to watch. I’m ready for it. It’s an interesting question about what kind of strikeout rate he will return with. In his MLB career (330 innings), he’s at 37%. I previously did not think that number was possible after the sticky stuff got banned. But he’s done. We noticed that his fastball velo is down a bit in his rehab. If that remains the case (if he’s throwing 95-96 rather than 97-98), I think you’ll see at least a few point reduction in the strikeout rate. I’m projecting him for a baseline 32% K% this year. That gives him a 5.8 strikeout projection today. But time will tell, if he’s sitting there with a 35-40% K% after a few starts, I’ll have re-adjust that.
We also get to see David Festa on the day slate. He looked pretty good in that first start, but the Twins had a quick hook with him. I’d hope they let him get the pitch count well above 80. He’s thrown 58, 80, and 64 pitches in his three regular season starts (counting his two minor league starts). So I doubt we’ll see him go too much above 80 here, and who knows, maybe the Twins are just going to baby the crap out of him and Matthews early on. That would be a real bummer, especially with how invested I am in these two arms.
Some sneaky SPs projecting very well today:
Robbie Ray vs. PHI
Osvaldo Bidovs. CWS
Kris Bubic vs. NYY (is he still sneaky?)
Brandon Pfaadt vs. MIA
Some pitchers not projecting so well:
Matthew Boyd vs. SD
Nick Pivetta vs. CHC
Max Meyer vs. ARI
Jose Soriano vs. TEX
Your biggest hitter projection boosts (compared to their usual projection):
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (+1.77)
Logan O’Hoppe (+1.73)
Jorge Soler (+1.58)
Alex Call (+1.48)
Wilyer Abreu (+1.42)
Kyren Paris (+1.41)
James Wood (+1.28)
Taylor Ward (+1.21)
So it’s a lot of Angels (vs. Patrick Corbin) and Nationals (vs. Bailey Falter). Not a surprise when you see those matchups. Projections will often times just tell you things you already knew.
On the BOOM sheet.
Prop Trio of the Day
Me and The Bat X both agree on these plays:
Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 K (+105)
Bailey Falter Under 4.5 K (-140)
Gavin Lux Under 0.5 Walks (-130)
You’ll have to figure out your night DFS slate on your own! I’m taking down the $5 Hundo tonight, there’s no doubt about it. Maybe I’ll do some slate analysis on X later this afternoon if I can find the time. Enjoy your day of baseball!
And hey, happy Holy Week. Christ is King!