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Early games - hope you’re awake!
BET TRACKER
The tracker has begun. I am still working out some bugs and making sure everything is working in a way that makes sense. The early returns are crazy high on the home run bets, which I’m pretty skeptical of.
What this will do is save off every bet where the projections are better than the available sports book price. And the next day, it makes sure that player actually started so the bet didn’t get voided, and then it grades the bet on win/loss/profit.
Full transparency. The catch here is that I’m grading the bets on the best available line from that whole day on multiple books. This will make the results look better than you can probably pull off in real life. Because you’d really have to be working hard and hustling around the different major books to get every best price.
There also might be an issue where a couple of the home run lines were scraped after the game began? I can’t really tell. I know it happened in a few cases, and I got rid of those. But there’s this one spot where we had Otto Lopez +1800 for a homer on April 12th.
I thought that might have been an in-game scrape. But I’m not 100% sure. When the MLBHR account tweeted it, it put +1200:
So it was really cheap. It’s not impossible that there was a +1800 at some point during the day.
Regardless, I’ve changed the line scraping code today to make sure it never scrapes lines from a game that’s in-progress.
Here are the early tracke results, it only goes back as far as April 10th when I started the code to choose which bets to choose.
It’s 2,724 bets in six days. That’s 454 bets a day. I don’t think anybody is doing that kind of volume. These aren’t bets I’ve actually taken. This is just logging every bet that the projections say is a good one. It will be a huge amount of volume every day because there are so many available lines.
But it’s a good start to be +3.1% ROI. Without the home runs, we’re in the negative. But this is way too small of a sample size anyways.
Here are your best bets for today, I’ll give the to three for each market.
Batter Doubles (over 0.5)
Jackson Merill +378 (DK)
Edgar Quero +504 (DK)
Miguel Vargas +392 (DK)
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