MLB DW Slate Preview - April 17
Betting picks and DFS analysis for some Friday night baseball!
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General Slate Data
WEATHER
https://propfinder.app/weather
Wide range of temperatures around the league. We’re in the high 30s in Coors Field, and up into the high-70s elsewhere. But I’m not seeing any rain concerns.
Implied Totals
No surprise we have a chart-topping Dodgers offense in Coors. But we saw the low temp up there, that doesn’t help things.
The Cubs are also expected to score a bunch in a windy game in Wrigley, but we don’t care about that because this article will be out after that one starts!
The other big spots on the DFS main slate:
Athletics at home vs. CWS
Astros at home vs. STL
Yankees at home vs. KC
Braves in Philly
The lowest expected run-scoring spots:
Rockies vs. LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
Rangers vs. SEA (Logan Gilbert)
Royals vs. NYY (Cam Schlittler)
Reds vs. MIN (Joe Ryan)
The Dodgers are a massive favorite here with Glasnow going against Sugano, but that total is still just 9.0 runs.
BOOM HITTERS
Player Props
Trevor and I have been tracking our recommendations for a week now, and we’re +3 units overall on 70 bets. Nobody’s getting wealthy here, but hey, maybe we can help you at least pay your membership fees!
Here are some lines the projections think are advantageous for Friday night:
STEALS / HOMERS:
Sam Antonacci over 0.5 steals +775
Projection-based fair price: +406
Cole Young over 0.5 HR +1550
Fair price: +1230
Otto Kemp over 0.5 HR +1000
Fair price: +800
TJ Friedl over 0.5 HR +1150
Fair price: +960
Roman Anthony +775
Fair price: +585
JJ Wetherholt over 0.5 HR +760
Fair price: +580
OTHER LINES:
Martin Perez over 2.5 K -239
Chris Bassitt over 4.5 K +194
Joe Ryan under 17.5 outs +155
Andres Gimenez under 0.5 batter K +135
Hyeseong Kim under 0.5 batter K +155
Jakob Marsee over 0.5 R +140
Ronald Acuna under 0.5 batter K +145
Matt Waldron over 4.5 K +146
Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K -153
DFS Preview
Pitchers - Cash Options
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) vs. TEX
Joe Ryan ($8,700) vs. CIN
Jacob deGrom ($9,200) vs. SEA
Cam Schlittler ($8,500) vs. KC
I think those are the four. Here’s a look at the top projections:
The model is adjusting on Jose Soriano, but I can’t play the dude in cash against the Padres. It’s going to take more than a handful of starts to convince me the dude is legit now.
We stick to the studs when possible in cash. And we have five to pick from. I’m leaving Glasnow off the cash list, just because it’s Coors and we don’t need to take that extra risk with Gilbert/Ryan/deGrom/Schlittler on the board.
I think deGrom is a steal at $9,200. He’s my favorite. Maybe you shouldn’t be trying to play guys facing each other in DFS, since that limits you to a max of one win bonus, but Logan Gilbert is probably my second favorite.
Joe Ryan does get a really good spot at home against a Reds offense that isn’t all that intimidating. There are a few roll-over bats in that lineup (Hinds, Stephenson, Hayes), and plenty of strikeout up and down the lineup.
Cam Schlittler, I think, has earned his place in the elite conversation, and you can grab him for just $8,500. That’s $1,000 less than Gilbert and $700 than deGrom.
My inclination for my single entry lineup is deGrom + Ryan, but I’d be mix in all four of these guys heavily in tourney lineup building.
Pitchers - Tourney Fades
This is a bit of personal preference, but here are the guys I’m just not buying at the projected ownership:
Tyler Glasnow vs. COL (23% ownership)
Jose Soriano vs. SD (23%)
Mike Soroka vs. TOR (13%)
The Rockies are hitting .263/.333/.416 with seven homers and a 26% K% at home. Those aren’t fantastic numbers, but they’re no push-over offense. And again, you just don’t need Glasnow to get a bunch of upside exposure on this slate.
Pitchers - Low Owned Targets
All of the guys I mentioned for cash are in the tourney builds. I wouldn’t stay too far away from Gilbert (36% ownership) or Ryan (25%) just because they’ll be owned. If the ownership projections are accurate, deGrom at 25% would be a lock-button consideration for me. He’s pitching so well this year (17% SwStr%, 37% K%, 5% BB%), and he threw 96 pitches last time out.
Casey Mize $8K (3% owned) vs. BOS
Michael Wacha $8.3K (5% owned) vs. NYY
Ranger Suarez $8.1K (9% owned) vs. DET
Aaron Civale $7.4K (4% owned) vs. CWS
Mize has a 25% K% and a 9.7% BB% for a pretty decent 15.3% K-BB%. He can have some big outings, so I like him at 3%, even if the price is probably $1000 more than it should be.
Civale has bad, but a 19% K% isn’t the worst thing in the world and the matchup is a boost. I think he’s the cheapest viable dude for tourneys. It’s a good night to load up on studs again.
I’d like a bunch of deGrom, Ryan, and Schlittler in tourneys.
Stacks
Athletics vs. Davis Martin
Dodgers vs. Sugano
Angels vs. Waldron
Astros vs. Leahy
Twins vs. Williamson
Padres vs. Soriano
Bold = lower owned spots I really like.
Check out this spot for the Athletics.
It’s a smallish sample size for Kurtz, but this is the exact type of pitcher he does insane damage against. Him and deGrom might be lock-buttons for me if I’m running out less than ten lineups.
The Angels are also swinging really good bats this year. They’re striking out less and they have a ton of right-handed power in the lineup with Trout, Adell, Neto, O’Hoppe, and Soler all going pretty well this year. They’re the matchups model’s top offense.
Really big spots for those three, Trout/Adell/O’Hoppe.
The Twins are a lineup that looks a lot better when facing a lefty, and they get the hittable Brandon Williamson tonight. The Buxton + Martin + Keaschall + Jeffers + Bell + Caratini stack combos are nice and cheap.
Hitters by Position
CATCHERS
Top Projections:
Will Smith $4,900
Shea Langeliers $5,800
Ivan Herrera $3,700
Sal Perez $3,600
Top Values:
Reese McGuire $2,100
James McCann $2,500
FIRST BASE
Top Projections:
Freddie Freeman $5,500
Nick Kurtz $5,400
Ben Rice $5,600
Top Values:
Luken Baker $2,000
Ty France $2,200
Lenyn Sosa $2,300
SECOND BASE
Top Projections:
Sam Antonacci $2,000
STOP RIGHT THERE: My model is way over-heated on Antonacci. It thinks he can go for an 18% K%, a 6% Brl%, and a 24% SB Att%. I doubt that ends up being real life, but he’s certainly a play at $2K.
JJ Wetherholt $4,600
Brice Turang $5,500
Top Values:
Sam Antonacci $2,000
Lenyn Sosa $2,300
Michael Massey $2,400
THIRD BASE
Top Projections:
Max Muncy $4,100
Maikel Garcia $4,800
Manny Machado $4,500
Top Values:
Sam Antonacci $2,000
Isiah Kiner-Falefa $2,100
Oswald Peraza $2,900
SHORTSTOP
Top Projections:
Bobby Witt Jr. $6,000
Zach Neto $5,400
Elly De La Cruz $5,900
Top Values:
Andruw Monasterio $2,200
Luisangel Acuna $2,400
Joey Ortiz $2,500
OUTFIELD
Top Projections:
Aaron Judge $6,600
Kyle Tucker $6,400
Yordan Alvarez $6,300
Teoscar Hernandez $5,400
Jackson Merrill $4,500
Mike Trout $5,700
Corbin Carroll $6,100
Ramon Laureano $4,200
Andy Pages $5,200
Top Values:
Tanner Murray $2,200
Andrew Benintendi $2,700
Tim Tawa $2,100
Tristan Peters $2,300
Nathan Lukes $2,400
Luisangel Acuna $2,400
Lane Thomas $2,500
Michael Massey $2,400
Brandon Lockride $2,400
*often times these values don’t actually end up in the lineup, and it can be really hard to late-swap them
CONVICTION SPOTS
Jacob deGrom
Nick Kurtz
Jo Adell
Ivan Herrera
Andrew Benintendi
Jose Soriano fade
CASH LINEUP
