MLB DW Slate Preview - April 18
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
NEW TOOL!
I have spent the last couple of weeks developing a Slate Analysis App! I feed it with everything that goes into and comes out of my projections model, and now you have (more or less) a one-stop shop for analyzing the day’s MLB slate.
Check out the tutorial here for some explanations and tips on how to use it:
I’ve added the link to the Resource Glossary. There is also a password so none of the hoy palloy can use it.
Some disclaimers:
It’s not a finished product. I still have ideas of how to add to it. And there will be bugs with it. I’ll continue to refine it. But let me know if you see anything obviously wrong with it.
I’m also not sure what kind of load it will be able to handle. If 200 of you jump on it at the same time, I’m not sure what will happen. I think it’ll be fine. It doesn’t do any complex computing or anything, just reading data and printing it. But I’ll keep an eye on it.
Prop of the Day
We were SO CLOSE to hitting two days in a row. I love when people talk about how CLOSE their dumb prop bets were. A loss is a loss, baby! The model likes these three, and I myself don’t find any issues with that:
Colin Rea Over 1.5 BB (+115)
Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 K (-155)
Chase Dollander Over 4.5 K (-125)
I suppose by the time I publish this, that Rea line will be gone. That game starts in a few minutes.
If you want a few more:
Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 K -105
Luis L. Ortiz Under 4.5 K +100
Dylan Crews Under 0.5 Hits +145
DFS Preview
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta ($9,500) vs. Athletics: The A’s have some bats this year. Maybe the model hasn’t properly responded to that yet, but there is still a ton of strikeout in that lineup, and Peralta is a guy who can exploit it.
MacKenzie Gore ($7,800) vs. Rockies:The one thing the model has not been afraid to do over the last year or so is recommend road pitchers in Coors. The Rockies lineup is really awful. They’ve held their own at home so far (.793 OPS), but still have a high 25% K% there. And Gore is capable of some big outings. It’s not a safe play, but he’s a nice low-ownership ceiling option. Game PPDYoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,200) vs. Rangers: He’s just so good. It’s been a fantastic start to the year for Yamamoto, and I think he keeps it rolling tonight. It’s not the greatest environment in hot weather on the road, and the price doesn’t make me super excited. I doubt I use him in my single lineup build, since I’m trying to win the Hundo these days, but he’s a nice cash game play.
Drew Rasmussen ($8,300) vs. Yankees: Okay, the price advantage is gone. It was nice while it lasted, but the world has caught up to us. We all love Rasmussen here. But I do have to say, it’s not the greatest price or matchup.
Carlos Rodon ($8,200) vs. Rays: This is a ceiling play, because Rodon is never to be trusted. But for all of the problems he has, he’ll always come back and rip off a ten strikeout game just when you think you’re done with him.