MLB DW Slate Preview - April 21st
A look at both Tuesday night DFS slates and the model's favorite bets
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This post was written by our guy HUNTER MARVEL! He did great work writing offseason news articles, and he’s dipping his toes into the DFS SLATE BREAKDOWN pool here.
Weather
Weather Report from PropFinder Here
Great weather spots include
Kansas City
Colorado
Wrigleyville
Arizona (although they will probably close the roof)
Anaheim (not LA to me)
Cleveland
So plenty of great weather spots. The only fades for weather, in my opinion, would be Boston and NYM, since it will be in the low 40s at first pitch, but winds are blowing out at 10+ mph, so maybe they cancel each other out, and it’s an okay spot.
DFS Preview [6:10 PM Turbo Slate]
We have six games all starting at six o’clock this evening. Not huge numbers from the implied totals for this contest.
Implied Totals
Pitchers to Attack
Looking at the projections, the pitchers we want to stack our hitters against would be:
Ryan Weiss (Guardians)
Chris Paddack (Cardinals)
Steven Matz (Reds)
Honestly, Matz hasn’t been bad this year. Sporting a 3.84 JA ERA and a 17.6% K-BB%, and Cincy. But if we look at advanced pitcher metrics, these pitchers have a good chance of getting lit up. Stack tournament lineups against these guys.
Let’s look at some other spots.
Foster Griffin
The Nationals pitcher has gotten off to a soso start to the campaign.
There are definitely numbers here that show he is ready for a blow-up start. A 40% hard hit rate, 0.329 xwOBA, and 36.7% FB%. In fact, Foster has given up one home run in three of four of his starts. I would attack this Atlanta offense as they can swing it well against lefties.
Luis Gil
Making his third start of the year against the Sox. Luis has been torched so far.
Four dingers in two starts. The Red Sox at home should feast against Gil, slam dunk pick. Not so fast? The Sox offense has struggled mightily to begin the season. Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras are the only two Boston hitters with an OPS above .800 against RHP this year.
Roman Anthony is a big standout in the matchups model, although it’s a very small sample size. But we don’t need the matchups model to know that Anthony is a strong component of a Red Sox stack this evening.
I’ll roll the dice and have a Boston stack in my exposure tonight. The best DFS advice I have ever gotten was “if it feels wrong, then it’s absolutely right”.