MLB DW Slate Preview - April 28
Breaking down the best spots and giving a full DFS preview for Tuesday night
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Trevor hit the big Rice + Judge homer parlay last night, so we’re hoping a bunch of people got on it.
I guess his strategy is just to pick the best spots and go for the large payout. That’s easier and probably more fun than grinding dozens of spots per day that have very small, incremental returns.
But so far, it’s worked. He’s way up in units on those parlays this year. Unfortunately for me, I’ve missed the three big days he’s had.
Let’s get into this Tuesday slate. I focus more on DFS and the larger picture. I’m trying to make these a bit useful for season-long people by throwing in some player analysis along the way while we’re building toward a DFS lineup or three.
Weather
No orange or red on the board! That’s good news. Temperatures are down again in the northeast. I’m not happy about that personally. Life is great when the kids can go outside and play in the yard (my beautifully manicured lawn I might add) before and after dinner.
I’ve got a wiffle ball pitching machine so I go out there after work and make my kids try to hit a few balls, but most of the time is me trying to hit backyard bombs while hoping I don’t line one right into someone’s face. That hasn’t happened yet. But it’s coming. I think my wife will be fine with it. It’s just a sting. IT’S JUST A STING HELGA.
BOOM HITTERS
PRO MEMBERS! I’ve added a checkbox on the matchups tool that filters the results to the BOOM hitters:
Here’s a close-up:
It’s a Zack Littell day. The greatest pitcher in the league at giving up dongshots. Brett Baty and Juan Soto are in some season-best spots.
And look at you, Josh Bell and Trevor Larnach - lining up pretty nicely against Logan Gilbert.
Just play the stud hitters against the bad pitchers, man. Ignition game for Juan Soto. Be ready for it.
You can also use the matchups model to isolate team hitting spots. Here are your worst team matchups, according to an averaging-out of the matchups model scores:
The Rockies clear it big-time. Chase Burns will go up against them, and it should be a feast night for the young electric righty at home.
Your best team offense spots according to this methodology:
Lots of green for the Mariners stacking up against Joe Ryan:
Cal Raleigh has a 53% FB% and a 57% hard hit rate against pitchers like Joe Ryan. That’s a great spot for a homer.
And here we are, being lame and recommending the game’s best home run hitters to hit home runs. Sign me up, though.
THE RETURN OF THE YESAVAGE
He’s back! But we’re going to see him get eased into things. He threw 44, 52, 71, and 64 pitches during his rehab. The last start was on the 21st, where he threw those 64 pitches for a 2:4 K:BB against the Columbus Clippers.
I wouldn’t be jumping at the opportunity to get Yesavage in your fantasy lineup tonight. If possible, I’d take advantage of the IL spot for one or two turns through while he ramps up, and while we see if the fastball can work in the Majors. That fastball wasn’t great in the rehab:
114 pitches
7.9% SwStr%
45.6% Strike%
35.1% Ball%
But the splitter is good for a few punchies every start when he has it. But he won’t always have it. Nobody always has the splitter.
A TEST FOR TOLLE
After a dominating start to begin his MLB season against the Yankees (11 strikeouts), he’ll go face a short-swing Blue Jays offense. The Blue Jays sport a 19% K% this year. But they don’t hit for power (23 HR, .380 SLG), and Tolle’s stuff is of a quality that hitters don’t see very often, even in the Majors. I’m excited to watch him, but if he gets double-digit strikeouts again I’ll be surprised. Very surprised.
We have two games to watch tonight, this one above, and this electric matchup in Texas as Jacob deGrom hosts Cam Schlittler.
TURBO SLATE OVERVIEW
IMPLIED TOTALS
We’re looking to load up on Reds against Sugano. Don’t buy the decent beginning to the year he’s had.
Baltimore will see Kai-Wei Teng for an inning or two and then get into that battered Astros bullpen. Teng is kinda funky and good and hard to hit (25% K%, 9.4% BB%, .263 xwOBA this year). But his max pitch count is 35, so he won’t be in there for long.
The Pirates project well against Kyle Leahy. He’s got the cold face emoji:
Advantage BUCS with Braxton Ashcraft going for them.
MONEYLINE PARLAY
Reds
Pirates
Mets
PITCHERS:
The cash options are Luzardo, Burns, and Ashcraft. Maybe you have trust issues with Luzardo, that’s certainly justified. I think Burns+Ashcraft is the proper single-lineup combination.
For tourneys, you can throw in Bibee, Nick Martinez, and maybe some Tyler Mahle for some savings.
TURBO SLATE OPTIMAL
SP Burns $9,000
SP Luzardo $8,700
C Ivan Herrera $4,200
1B Sal Stewart $5,100
2B Matt McLain $3,200
SS Gunnar Henderson $5,700
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes $2,100
OF Oneil Cruz $6,300
OF Spencer Steer $2,900
OF Dane Myers $2,800