MLB DW Slate Preview - April 3
Breaking down a large Friday afternoon slate
Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
SUBSCRIPTIONS ON SALE
Temporary discount on MLB DW memberships!
Paid Sub Monthly:
$14.99$11.99Paid Sub Yearly:
$85$70MLB DW Pro:
$225$175
That’s 20% off of PRO. And that membership will get you the daily projections all season long.
If you’re upgrading to PRO, it should pro-rate your price so you’re not double-paying. Any issues with that, let me know.
One last day of my vacation from work. I’m really going to be regretting taking this week off come Monday morning when I’m staring down the barrel of 100 e-mails and really only wanting to look at baseball stats from over the weekend.
So let’s make this one count. Maybe I can win a million dollars today and not have to go back to work!
UPDATES FOR PRO MEMBERS
The DFS optimizer has been upgraded!
FIRST UPGRADE: It should now save your settings as you click around the app. If you refresh the whole page, you’ll lose them, but it will maintain your settings in your current session. That should help a lot.
SECOND UPGRADE: You can now set different max exposures for pitchers and hitters.
Check the “enable position-based exposure caps” box and then set what you want. I will be using this, because I like to lock into a small group of pitchers, and sometimes I’ll lock a certain guy for all lineups. But I never want to do that with hitters. So I might want 75% max exposure to a pitcher, but just 30% to a hitter. We can do that now.
THIRD UPGRADE: Minimum Exposures!
You can also force it to give you some minimum exposure to a player now.
FOURTH UPGRADE: Projection Tweaking
You can select either “Basic” or “Adjusted” to use as projections. Basic is just what you see in my model, that’s the normal. “Adjusted” will move my projections toward other sources, so if you think my model is super wrong on something, you can use that and see where the projection moves to.
Please reach out if something isn’t working or if there are troubles with it, or if you have a feature you want added. Today will be the first test of it. I haven’t even run any lineups on this slate yet. I’ve gotta get this article done first!
Game preview cards now show my projection:
The blue number there is the projection from my model. And I got rid of that ugly blank space at the end. They look really nice. Those big blue numbers there are my model’s projected run total. Which aren’t the best since the model isn’t built toward predicting team runs but more at predicting player stats. It gets close, but I wouldn’t be using those numbers to bet team totals or anything like that. But it’s useful to have just to see which teams my model likes more and less.
So yeah, big upgrades for PRO subscribers! Seems like a pretty good time for you non-PRO members who could use the daily projections to upgrade at the discounted price!
Prop Betting App Simplified
I cleaned it up and got rid of all of the confusing math stuff. Now it grades prop bets based on the ones my model’s hypothetical price is most different than the sports books.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This has not been tested or validated yet this year as profitable. We were around a 5% ROI early on last year, but as the season went on, it dried up as the books tightened up.
I just need you to know that I cannot guarantee short term or long term profit on these. Just use it as a tool for your own process and stuff. It’s good to know where the projections are, generally. But again, this is not a tried-and-true betting model.
Okay, let’s bust into this.
Weather
It looks like we should be mostly okay for the day games. The two spots with potential rain:
Orioles at Pirates
Cubs at Guardians
Rays at Twins
The Rays at Twins game looks the most suspicious. Here’s what Roth has down:
It’s not the most appealing game from the start, so that might be a good one to scratch off. We won’t know much when the slate starts three hours before that one is scheduled for.
Implied Totals
Two HUGE spots in implied total. We get our first Coors field game, and it’s a potent Phillies lineup taking on Michael Lorenzen and the bad Rockies pen. It’ll be in the 50’s in Denver, though, so that reduces things a little bit. but Lorenzen is really bad. We’ll want some Phillies.
The other one is the Dodgers against Miles Mikolas. A similar spot to being up against Lorenzen. A righty with no stuff who gives up a ton of contact. Mikolas is not a Major League caliber pitcher at this point, the Nationals just desperately needed innings this year.
We’re firing up some Dodgers and Phillies in cash, without a doubt.
We also get a nice run-scoring environment with the Astros visiting the Athletics for the first Sutter Health Park game of the season. And it’s Cristian Javier against Jeffrey Springs. Both of those guys can give up the long ball. We’re very likely to see Nick Kurtz get on the board today. I love picking on Javier. And maybe with the Phillies and Dodgers, the Athletics will be a bit sneaky after a slow start to their season. It’ll be 74 degrees there with no chance of rain.
Pitchers
I’m going to hit the paywall now so I can show off some projections. Remember, these full articles are available for standard paid subs as well, which is just $11.99 a month this weekend (or $70 for the rest of the season - and you’ll keep that $70/year price for the life of your membership.