MLB DW Slate Preview - April 7
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
This slate preview is coming at you from the backseat of a Kia Sedona somewhere on the Ohio turnpike. My wife is finishing the drive so I can catch up on some stuff. I’m already feeling a little motion sickness, so we’ll see where this goes.
Pitchers to Watch
Richard Fitts vs. TOR: Fitts survived his first outing of the season, but did not look spectacular. I still think there’s enough talent here to potentially be worth a fantasy roster spot. He has a very interesting pitch mix, splitting evenly the sweeper, slider, and four-seamer in his first start. The sweeper was very effective in that start (65% Strike%), but his fastball struggled to fool anybody (no whiffs). The presence of those breaking balls along with a 96mph fastball makes me thinks there’s some potential here.
Casey Mize vs. NYY: He’ll take the mound first today in the lone afternoon game. I don’t think it’s going to go well for him, but he did look pretty sharp in that first start after making some tweaks to his secondary pitches this offseason. I’m not starting him, but how he handles this challenging Yankees lineup will tell us a lot.
Hayden Wesneski vs. SEA: Wesneski was a popular waiver add this weekend. He went for a brilliant 14.9% SwStr% in his first start with the Astros while taking on a traditional starter’s role (88 pitches). That has some people excited for what the Astros can mold him into, especially in this elite matchup with the Mariners.
Dustin May vs. WSH: The model’s favorite bet of the day is May under 5.5 strikeouts. I think that’s right on. But you don’t need to get 7+ strikeouts from May for him to benefit your fantasy team. I think he’s a must-start guy, and he’s one of the most fun pitchers in the league to watch.
Matchup Analysis
Let’s check in on the MLB DW Daily Matchups Cheat Sheet. That’s for paid subscribers, and you can find the link in the Resource Glossary.
Padres vs. Luis Severino: The Padres are projected to have five left-handed hitters in the starting lineup. That’s bad news for the Athletics’ ace, as he’s given up a high .346 xwOBA with just a 19% K% to lefties in his last 93 innings against them. It could be a bumpy ride for Severino, and it’s a pretty good spot to see some fireworks off the bats of Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth.
Cardinals vs. Carmen Mlodzinski: Mlodzinski (try pronouncing that one!) has entered the Pirates rotation, and it did not go very well the first time around. He was previously a reliever, and a pretty effective one at that. But we see time and time again failed experiments when trying to turn a reliever into a starter. Mlodzinski is primarily slider + four-seamer, even against lefties. That’s a recipe for some hard contact in the air. Oh, and the wind is blowing out in Pittsburgh, and the likely piggyback man will be Thomas Harrington, another righty without a great weapon against lefties. It’s a good spot for Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Alec Burleson to pile up some total bases.
Pirates vs. Matthew Liberatore: On the other side of that game are the Pirates who will be looking to load their lineup up with righties. Those bats have posted a .342 xwOBA with just a 20% K% against Liberatore in the last 54 innings. I love Bryan Reynolds and Joey Bart in this spot. And you might even be able to cash in on a longshot ticket on someone like Tommy Pham or Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Carlos Rodon (vs. DET) & Kodai Senga (vs. MIA): Both of these guys know how to get the strikeout. And they find themselves facing two very whiff-heavy lineups. The Tigers weighted K% is 26.5%, and the Marlins are right behind them at the top of the board at 26.4%. We could see 8+ strikeouts from both guys.