MLB DW Slate Preview - April 7
An in-depth look at the DFS slate and some prop betting angles for the MLB action on April 7th
Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
It’s cold today. Six games with forecasted temps under 50. Should be a good day to be a pitcher in those spots.
BOOM HITTERS
POWER + CONTACT HITTERS
HR CHEAT SHEET RECOMMENDATIONS
Drake Baldwin (+534 on DraftKings) vs. Kikuchi
Brenton Doyle (+680 on FanDuel) vs. Burrows
Mickey Moniak (+450 on FanDuel) vs. Burrows
Mike Trout (+420 on FanDuel) vs. Lopez
DFS Preview
DraftKings scrapped the turbo slate tonight and they’re putting all 12 night games together. So the slate starts earlier than usual, and there’s a lot to get into.
IMPLIED RUN TOTALS
PITCHERS - THE STUDS
Tarik Skubal ($10,500) vs. MIN
Skubal struck out just three last time for a weak 16-point performance. And the stud SP prices are going up, especially on big slates like this. It is Skubal, though, and that guy has 30+ point potential every time he takes the ball.
Garrett Crochet ($10,000) vs. MIL
This is a tough matchup. I don’t know how the Brewers do it, but they always win the game. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per inning to opposing pitchers so far
LAD 1.63
HOU 1.78
MIL 2.08
WSH 2.11
TB 2.19
But if anybody can beat them, it’s Crochet. Right? But Skubal is a step ahead of him because of the matchup, although you do get the same sort of upside for $500 cheaper than Skubal.
Paul Skenes ($9,000) vs. SD
Cheap price tag on Skenes! That’s because he had that brutal first outing and then just a 73-pitch second outing as they took it easy with him, presumedly because of that first game. I think we’ll see Skenes into 90+ pitch territory really, really soon. Maybe even tonight. But the volume projection does have to be lower for him, and this isn’t a fantastic matchup. But I do think that’s a very appealing cash play because of the large price difference between him and his tier-one counterparts.
Nick Pivetta ($7,700) vs. PIT
Speaking of low prices! The presence of the big three does push down the prices on the secondary guys. DraftKings seems to do pricing with an eye on keeping ownership spread out. If you play Pivetta, you can only play one of the big three. But for $7,700 in PNC Park against the Pirates, that’s pretty appealing. He’s not been helped by a .400 BABIP so far. Pittsburgh isn’t the push-over matchup they were last year, especially against righties, but this is a cash play for me.
Cristopher Sanchez ($9,700) vs. SF
He usually projects well worse than Skubal/Crochet, and that’s the case again today. But it’s a good matchup for the lefty, and Sanchez has 17 strikeouts in two starts without a home run allowed, so he’s humming right along early on this year.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,200) vs. TOR
It’s stud city tonight! I don’t think you’re going to get super high ownership on anybody because of all of the good options we have. And it’s probably one of thos slates where you spend some extra cash at SP because we’re likely to get a handful of very high scores from predictable sources. Yamamoto isn’t projecting super well against a high-contact Blue Jays lineup. But we know what he’s capable of.
Cam Schlittler ($8,500) vs. ATH
It’s fair to say that Schlittler has similar upside to the game’s best starters. He’s been awesome so far this year, and for his whole MLB career to date. At home against the Athletics who just flew across the country is what we call a smash spot.
Jacob Misiorowski ($8,700) vs. BOS
The Red Sox have won two games so far, and they have a high team K% of 26%. Misiorowski is too wild for cash game consideration on this slate, but for a low-owned tourney play he’s legit. There’s 10+ strikeout upside with him easily.
Sandy Alcantara ($8,300) vs. CIN
Alcantara is nowhere near the projected K leaders today. But we’ve already seen him go for a complete game. It looks like the old Sandy is back, and that gives him a pretty decent fantasy outlook. But I don’t think I’d be too interested in him tonight with all of these stud pitchers available to us.
This is a tough, tough pitcher slate. Too many options. But let’s check on some of the cheap guys and then we’ll nail down a cash duo.
PITCHERS - THE VALUES
Nick Pivetta is the top value, but we’ve already talked about him.
Cade Cavalli ($5,700) vs. STL
This is a really low price for Cavalli. And it’s tough to pull the trigger on him as one of your two SP picks tonight. But there’s a Coors game and some expensive stacks to like, so I’ll absolutely be including Cavalli in the tourney pool. Getting 15 points from Cavalli would be a very nice pick, and it’s pretty likely to happen with his projection being at 12 points in my model and 14 for The Bat X.
Taj Bradley ($7,300) vs. DET
He’s scored 20+ fantasy points in both starts this year. First he had nine strikeouts against the Orioles, and then he went six scoreless against the Royals (with just three strikeouts).