MLB DW Slate Preview - August 5
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Here’s the pitching landscape for the night.
Implied run totals:
That’s right, the Toronto Blue Jays are implied for 8.5 runs tonight. That might be the line you get right from the sports book, but that’s the calculation by taking that 12 O/U and splitting it among the two teams based on the moneyline, which suggests the Blue Jays would win this game seven out of ten times.
The Rockies pitching staff is truly something historic. They are allowing 6.34 runs per game. Nobody else is above 5.5. It is completely nuts.
Fire up the Blue Jays bats - anybody you can get your hands on!
My model is probably too low on them. The Bat X has Vlad for 13.3 points tonight.
Anthony Molina has given up a 1.009 OPS in his 38 batters faced in the Majors this year. I’m sure he’s happy to be able to call himself a big leaguer, but it just feels so rough to embarass some of these guys like that. None of these Rockies pitchers are true big league talent, but the organization is such a pathetic mess that they run out these guys against hitters they have no business facing. Anyways, let’s not spend all this time telling you to play hitters against the Rockies!
Spot #1: Athletics vs. MacKenzie Gore
This game is in DC, so the A’s don’t get that comfy home ballpark advantage. They’re not a very good lineup on the road (.759 OPS at home, .723 on road), but MacKenzie Gore is busted right now.
Things really started to fall apart around June 15th. Since then, his 4.74 JA ERA is 9th-worst in the league.
He is throwing 4.11 pitches per batter faced in that time, also in the bottom ten. He’s lost stuff and he’s lost command at the same time.
I think Gore is in worse form than this matchup is good. How’s that for a sentence! I like betting on another short, inefficient outing from Gore and for the A’s to win a game here.
Spot #2: Philadelphia Electric Factory
The Phillies lineup is thriving right now. Since June 15th, they lead the league with a .012 xwOBA OE. Only Toronto and the Cubs join them above 0.010 here. They are cruising, and they get another game against the very weak Orioles pitching staff. Dean Kremer will start this one, and that’s a particularly favorable matchup for these Phillies bats, as you can see there by the Phillies being the #1 offense in the matchups model tonight.
It’s not only a good matchup against the starting pitcher, but this Orioles bullpen is also currently one of the worst units in the league. They rank #25 of 30 clubs in my model tonight.
You can play the Phillies to score a bunch of runs tonight.