MLB DW Slate Preview - July 1
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Player Props
It’s clear that the under props work better for us, at least when you’re using my models.
These bet types above a 10% value are profitable when betting the under:
We got housed yesterday on the props I recommended, so I’m sorry about that. Let’s focus on these UNDERS:
Max Fried Under 5.5 K -140
Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 K -110
Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 Singles +175
Cooper Hummel Under 0.5 Hits +150
Byron Buxton Under 0.5 Steals -170
Willi Castro Under 0.5 Steals -425
Andrew McCutchen Under 0.5 Singles +130
Jake Meyers Under 0.5 Singles +160
DFS Preview
One simple lineup for me tonight, let’s find the best plays quickly. Sorry about the lame content today.
Pitchers
Grant Holmes ($9,700) vs. Angels
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) vs. Orioles
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,800) vs. White Sox
Those are your big three expensive options. The two best values in my mind:
Richard Fitts ($5,500) vs. Reds
Emerson Hancock ($6,000) vs. Royals
It’s always tough to build a lineup when you’re spending $21K on pitching, but it’s tough not to do that tonight in a cash game situation.
The guys with significant ownership projections:
deGrom 47%
Yamamoto 27%
Holmes 23%
Baz 22%
Boyd 15%
Hancock 12%
Gallen 11%
There’s just no way I can trust Baz or Gallen. And while I think Hancock and Fitts are both viable salary savers with some upside in tourneys, I can’t stake my main lineup on either one. So we’ll probably be loading up on deGrom and Yamamoto and seeing what we can pull off offensively.