MLB DW Slate Preview - July 19
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Alright, I’ve got some time to write up a rare Saturday slate preview, so let’s blast through this.
Spot #1: Cubs vs. Red Sox
This game is an interesting one. It’s Shota Imanaga against Brayan Bello, one of the more interesting pitching matchups of the night.
The model absolutely loves picking on Bello. So the Cubs are the top projected offense on the board, and they’re also the top projected offense above season average.
The interesting thing is that Bello might be on a career-best roll right now.
He is up to a 15.6% K-BB% with a .279 xwOBA allowed and a 50% GB% over his last five starts. But it’s still a pretty mediocre 3.40 JA ERA over that time, and he’s been the beneficiary of some very good luck (.221 BABIP and a 14.8% RISP H%. Click that link to go to an X thread where I explain what that is. So I think Bello is in for a tough outing tonight.
Bello has not been any luckier than Shota Imanaga, because nobody has. Imanaga has somehow put up a .191 BABIP, a 13% HR/FB, and an 8.5% RISP H%. The first and third number there put him right at the top of the league. And the Red Sox love to hit lefties.
It’s a fascinating game on a lot of fronts. But I think we’re going to see some offense here. Let’s build out a parlay with some of the edges I’m seeing.
→ Brayan Bello 1+ Walks
→ Brayan Bello 1+ Earned Runs
→ Shota Imanaga 2+ Earned Runs
→ Over 5.5 Runs in Game
→ Over 2.5 Run for Red Sox
→ Total SGP: -135
Spot #2: Will Warren Fade
Spot #3: Mitchell Parker Fade
I built out that player trends page on the slate analysis app over the break. We can see which pitchers are in much better or worse form in over the last three weeks.
I don’t want to go over the top on this stuff, but picking on these two works for me because they’re both guys who have had periods of success this year that didn’t make much sense to me. I don’t think either guy is as good as the consensus might think. And that’s saying something, because they aren’t two guys that many people think are any good.
The matchups data:
Braves vs. Will Warren
Padres vs. Mitchell Parker
Play
→ Warren 2+ ER -205
→ Parker 2+ ER -340
→ Parlay -109