MLB DW Slate Preview - July 21
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Spot #1: Zack Wheeler Domination
Wheeler is 3.8 projection points above his season average in this spot against the Red Sox. He skipped the All Star game and then the Phillies gave him the first series of the second half off, so Wheeler should be rested and rejuvenated for a huge second half. He’s been ridiculously good this year with a 33% K%, a 5.6% BB%, and an elite 2.05 JA ERA.
The matchup is strong here against a Red Sox lineup that just doesn’t have a ton going for it against right-handed pitching. They rank #22 out of 30 teams tonight in the matchups model. They’re a strong offense to target with good right-handed pitching. And that’s what I’m doing tonight. I’m backing Wheeler and the Phillies here to cruise past the struggling Walker Buehler and the Red Sox.
Plays
→ Phillies moneyline
→ Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs
Spot #2: Paul Skenes Pitch Count
The market seems to think he’s going to be stuck at 75-80 pitches here, and I think that’s wrong.
The Pirates wound down his pitch counts to round out the first half, but I’m not believing that’s the plan for the rest of the season. Regardless of where the Pirates sit in the standings, there’s more than two months of baseball to play, and Skenes has thrown just 121 innings after a 150 inning season last year. I think he’ll get back to the normal allotment of pitches and throw 6+ innings in this one.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Tigers do not have many hitters in position to do much with the bat against the Cy Young candidate. They are dead last in the matchups model.
Plays
→ Paul Skenes Over 15.5 Outs -110
→ Tigers/Pirates Under 7 Runs