MLB DW Slate Preview - July 22
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Rich Hill returns to a Major League pitcher’s mound tonight. That’s a pretty incredible story. This guy’s MLB career began back in 2005. That was with the Cubs, who he will face tonight. Overall, he’s thrown 1,409 big league innings with a 4.01 ERA and 1,428 strikeouts. He was never anything all that special, but he had some moments, and very few guys can say they played in MLB games 20 years apart.
This year, he’s posted a 5.36 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in AAA, but hey, he does sport a 25% K%! He’s just been wild (13% BB%) and has given up a ton of dingers (1.9 HR/9).
The fastball sits around 88mph. The main pitch is the curveball. I imagine we’ll see a ton of those curveballs tonight against the Cubs. And I also imagine he won’t have a very good start.
But I do wonder if he even cares how it goes. It’s pretty unlikely he has any particular allegiance to the Royals. They aren’t a contending team right now, and it’s not like Rich Hill would make the playoff roster if they were. So I don’t know, the guy just loves the game, I guess. Or maybe he just has nothing else to freaking do.
It would be something to be a pro athlete and then retire at like age 35. You’re looking probably at 50+ years of life left to go. What do you do exactly? There are all sorts of options, obviously, but it would be something to have to basically start a new life as a 30-something-year-old. But good for Rich Hill. It will be fun to see him again tonight (especially if you’re a Cubs fan).
The fringey fantasy SP we’re watching tonight is Joey Cantillo. I guess it’s pretty clear who the guy is. He’s an inefficient pitcher who can get a bunch of strikeouts. But it’s not a bad matchup for him at home against the Orioles.
There is plenty of strikeout in the Orioles lineup (Mayo 33%, O’Neil 32%, Cowser 31%, Laureano 29%, Holliday 27%, Stallings 26%). So I think Cantillo has a good chance to be a positive in the fantasy game tonight. I’m not saying he’s going to cruise through six innings or anything like that, but I could see five innings with eight strikeouts.
The books seem to think he’ll grab 6-8 strikeouts with the line set at over 6.5 for +115. That’s not an endorsement of a bet, but it’s actually a pretty good way to get an idea of what to expect.
I’ve thought about creating an NFL projection model just from the betting lines. You could do that pretty easily. Just project whatever the betting lines imply and use those results for regular fantasy football or whatever else. I wonder how competitive a projection model like that would be. Maybe we’ll find out this football season!
I’m also pretty interested to see what Cam Schlittler can do tonight. It’s been awhile since he’s made a start, but it was an impressive career debut. He struck out seven Mariners in 5.1 innings back on July 9th. Today he gets this brutally tough matchup with the Blue Jays, at least as far as the strikeout expectation goes.
This lineup goes to an 18% K%.
The Blue Jays are by far the toughest lineup to strike out. And there’s a fair question about how many pitches Schlittler will throw here. He’s a young, unproven arm, and now it’s been two weeks since he’s been in a real game. I could see him going like 65 pitches.
I don’t think this start will give us any great information about how to view him for the rest of the year. I don’t think I’d want to use him in a fantasy league tonight, but I do think he’s a guy who could be a big positive for the rest of this season and next year if his stuff and command is anything like we’ve seen from him this year so far. He’s one I’m watching closely.
Hot Hitters
It’s been fun to track these hottest hitters in these first few days of the second half. Your three hottest right now are…