MLB DW Slate Preview - July 28
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
We’re mixing stuff up in the slate previews this year. I have not arrived at a consistent format here, but I think it might even be better that way. Feel free to provide feedback if you have a preference or if you want me to make sure I hit a certain thing each day I write this. Let’s get into it.
Top Pitching Spots
Jacob deGrom vs. Angels
deGrom was not able to able and willing to keep the velocity down in the mid-90s this year. He started down there around 95-97, but he seemingly put the foot back on the gas around late-June. He’s averaged more than 98mph on the fastball four times in his last six.
We saw it tick down last time. That could mean that he’s backing off again, but I doubt it. Every time we’ve seen him come downward this year (save one time when there was a slight injury issue in late May), he has snapped it back up the next time.
If deGrom comes into this matchup with the Angels throwing 97-99, he should be able to pile up some strikeouts.
Two things to note.
deGrom faced the Angels three weeks ago and struck out only five
The Angels have been a better offense over the last couple of months
Neither of those points is moving me. I’m always looking to lean on the bigger samples. And the bigger samples tell us that deGrom is an elite strikeout pitcher and that this Angels lineup is going to whiff a ton. I think deGrom cruises past seven strikeouts in this spot.
Play
→ deGrom 6+ Strikeouts -340
→ deGrom 7+ Strikeouts -165
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Tigers
We talked about this in the daily notes this morning. The Tigers are ice, ice cold right now. As a team, their xwOBA is under .300 for the month of July. That is pathetically bad.
Things can turn in a hurry in baseball, that’s true, but the other true point is that this Tigers lineup was never all that impressive. Even when they were winning 80% of their games early on, it wasn’t a lineup that was terrifying to face.
E-Rod has been up-and-down and overall a mediocre pitcher, and that’s just who the guy is. But he is capable of having some strong outings.
The D’Backs are also winding down their season in a lot of ways. They’ll be looking to ship off players this week as the deadline approaches, so I think they’ll be fine to let E-Rod cover as many innings as he can tonight. He threw 90 pitches last time out and has exceeded 95 pitches in three of his last six. He’s good for 90+ tonight, and that should get him through five innings comfortably.
Play
→ Stream in fantasy leagues
→ Eduardo Rodriguez over 15.5 Outs -120
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Reds
Great American Ballpark is a scary place to pitch at times. But it’s not nearly as scary for a guy like Yamamoto, a ground-ball specialist. Yamamoto has given up just 17 homers in his 38 big league starts. That’s 0.75 HR/9 for his career. He has a 54% GB% this year, and a barrel rate allowed around 6%.
The Reds are particularly vulnerable to right-handed pitching. Their team ISO breaks down like this:
→ Overall: .147
→ vs. RHP: .153
→ vs. LHP: .127
At home against righties, it goes up by .002 points to .155. They are not taking advantage of this home ballpark, and that’s very good news for Yamamoto.
The prices and outlooks on Yamamoto might be a bit depressed today because of the perceived ballpark disadvantage, but I don’t think this park context hurts him much at all.
I also like Chase Burns on the other side. He does not have a pretty ERA (6.65), but the indicators are sparkling (3.07 SIERA, 2.89 xFIP).
He will have to deal with Ohtani, and that alone could wreck his day. But nobody else in this Dodgers lineup is doing anything. Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers are slashing .223/.296/.381. That’s almost hard to believe! Take out Ohtani and you have a .226/.298/.364 line. This is not an impossible matchup for the young flame-thrower.