MLB DW Slate Preview - July 29
Thoughts, stats, DFS, player props, and more for today's slate of MLB action
Top Pitching Spots
Spot #1: Max Fried vs. Rays
What is Max Fried good at? Generating soft contact.
What are the Rays bad at? Generating hard contact against lefties.
Since June 1st, the Rays rank #26 in the league with a .283 xwOBA against left-handed pitching. They have a higher than average 24.3% K%, a high 47.4% GB%, and an incredibly low 4.8% Brl%. They have hit just 10 homers in 428 PAs against lefties since June 1st (42.8 PA/HR), and it's 38.2 PA/HR for the year with a 5.3% Brl%.
This team simply does not hit for power against lefties. I could see Fried absolutely cruising here, and he’s in a really good spot to not allow a single home run, and that’s usually not an easy thing to do in Yankees Stadium.
Play
→ Rays Under 0.5 Home Runs +155
Spot #2: Tyler Glasnow vs. Reds
It has been a frustrating year for Glasnow. And that guy is no stranger to frustrating years. Maybe he doesn’t even get frustrated by it since it’s so common. His bar for frustration has to be a little different than most people, right?
But boy was he good in his last start. He uncorked 106 pitches for 19 whiffs and a dozen strikeouts while delivering a nice 34.9% Ball% and a .216 xwOBA allowed. His velocity was back to normal and he had full confidence in the curveball, using it for a season high 24% usage.
We talked about this particular matchup yesterday with Yamamoto in Cincy, and that went very well. Yamamoto dominated. Glasnow is a similar pitcher to Yamamoto as a right-handed guy with good velo and a propensity for keeping the ball on the ground.
Glasnow isn’t the same level of ground-ballers as his teammate, but at a 43% GB% and with this curveball in the quiver, he can be that kind of guy. I think he comes out with the curveball tonight and uses that good fastball and elite extension to have another dominant outing against the Reds. The Reds rank third to worst today in the team matchups model. There’s nobody in this lineup save Elly De La Cruz that has had success against the kind of stuff Glasnow offers.
And we know that Elly struggles with the strikeout, so it’s not like we’re overly worried about that matchup either for Glasnow.
Plays
→ Glasnow Under 2.5 Earned Runs -140