MLB DW Slate Preview - June 11
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Props
I don’t have a ton of time with this slate starting early. But a few props that stand out to me in the model.
Robbie Ray Under 17.5 Outs +155
It’s the Rockies, yes. Robbie Ray is pitching as well as he ever has, yes. But +155 for a guy to fall short of completing six innings in Coors Field? Seems a little crazy. The Bat X and my model agree, both giving this a +EV bet value.
Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Walks +140
Vasquez has a 39.7% Ball% this year for a 12.3% BB%, and today he’ll take on a Dodgers team which is fourth in the league with a 9.2% BB%.
$25 to $250 Challenge
I’m sour about last night with the Quinn Priester thing. So we’re firing this right back up.
→ Eduardo Rodriguez 4+ Strikeouts -350
→ Bailey Falter 4+ Hits Allowed -380
→ Ryan Gusto 1+ Walks Allowed -1000
Overall it’s -128, $25 to win $44.66. E-Rod has honestly been decent this year, and there are some heavy strikeout bats in that Mariners lineup against lefties. Falter is a pitch-to-contact guy who will shoulder a full load of pitches against the Marlins. And Gusto projects for three walks here against a patient White Sox lineup (they have the third-highest team BB% in the league).