MLB DW Slate Preview - June 13
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Let’s go game by game! I ripped through it fast, so please forgive my typos. All screenshots are from the Daily Slate Analysis App, which paid subscribers have access to (link and password in the Resource Glossary).
Pirates vs. Cubs
The Pirates are a favorite on the road against the Cubs! How about that. We know the Pirates don’t give Paul Skenes much run support. But the Bucs have been pretty competitive over the last month or so. They’re hovering around .500 since firing their manager.
But this game will come down to Cade Horton. Here are his season numbers:
→ Overall: 18.9% K%, 5.3% BB%, 3.75 JA ERA
→ vs. RHB: 19.6% K%, 7.1% BB%, 3.90 JA ERA
→ vs. LHB: 18.4% K%, 3.9% BB%, 3.46 JA ERA
When he came up I said he’d be a fly ball pitcher who has some trouble with the long ball. So far he’s posted a 44% GB% (about league average) with a homer allowed ever 33 batters faced (also about league average).
The 13.4% SwStr% shows that the K% could tick up as we go on. But his fastball just doesn’t seem good (5.5% SwStr%, 47% Strike%, .402 xwOBA). I’m not a believer yet. And I think Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds could do some damage here.
The Pirates bullpen isn’t good (23rd/30 today), but they probably won’t have to use it much. The Cubs bullpen seems like a weak spot for them and they’re ranked #20 of 30 in the algorithm today. Horton might do well, but I don’t think this is a guy who goes seven innings here. And if the Pirates have a lead behind Skenes, they’ll see some of the weaker arms in that bullpen.
Let’s get the day started with a little bit of a longshot parlay. And actually it looks like this moneyline has moved to Cubs -121.
→ Pirates moneyline +100
→ Oneil Cruz to homer +450
Combined: +650
Marlins vs. Nationals
If you haven’t seen it yet, Edward Cabrera is a different pitcher this year. His BB% is all the way down to 9.6%!
Edward Cabrera K% and BB% by Year
2022: 25.8% K%, 11.3% BB%
2023: 27.2% K%, 15.2% BB%
2024: 25.6% K%, 12.0% BB%
2025: 24.3% K%, 9.6% BB%
So it’s by far his best BB%, but the K% has been dinged a bit because of it. A 14.7% K-BB% is nice to see from him, and it makes me feel decent about the Marlins today.
Mitchell Parker has been really bad.
15.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 10.5% SwStr%, 4.72 JA ERA
That’s the fourth-worst JA ERA in the league among pitchers with 10+ starts (Vasquez, Fedde, Senzatela are worse).
I’m picking the Marlins to win this one. The pitching matchup is in their favor, and the matchups model ranks them five slots ahead of the Nats.
Plays
Marlins moneyline
Edward Cabrera under 4.5 K +100
Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Kevin Gausman has been his inconsistent self this year, but it’s been more good than bad of late. In his last month (six starts) he has a 20.7% K-BB% and a 2.86 JA ERA.
On the other side is Ranger Suarez, who continues to put up numbers despite his usual mediocre underlying numbers. But that’s who the guy is. He’s deceptive, and his command is pristine.
The Blue Jays lineup has been good lately. That’s right!
March - April: .237/.305/.347, .321 xwOBA
May - June…..: .271/.332/.444, .352 xwOBA
The Phillies are a fine offense, but I don’t think they’re some unbeatable force. Bryce Harper wasn’t having the greatest season, but they’re still worse without him in there.
Both pitchers are really hard to get a handle on and project, though. So I don’t really want to lean into anything for either guy. The one thing you can always do with Gausman is run up one of those K ladders. When his splitter is working, he is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league. But the splitter isn’t always working.
Angels vs. Orioles
Two pretty similar-looking SPs. The little bar, the goatee, the hair below the lip, the little smirk on the face.
Charlie Morton has been good of late. He has a 3.19 JA ERA with a 17.4% K-BB% in his last three starts. And he has generated at least nine whiffs in each of those with a 15.1% SwStr% overall. What’s going on with Morton!? The difference seems to be that he’s given up on the fastball. He’s ramped up the curveball usage. So he’s going to throw that a lot tonight again, in all likelihood. The Angels are hitting .197 with a 63% contact% against curveballs this year. The league averages are .223 and 68%. I can’t say I trust Morton ever, but he’s in good form after making a change, and this is a great matchup for strikeouts. For DFS purposes, he’s in consideration as a tourney play at $6,300. He has some strikeout upside here, but on DraftKings the line is 5+ strikeouts for -160, which seems like a ripoff to me.
The O’s offense is in a good spot too. Jack Kochanowicz is not good, and the Angels have the 30th-ranked bullpen in the model today.
Plays
Orioles to win
Morton 4+ Strikeouts
Orioles lefty bats (Koch 4.61 JA ERA, 2.62 WHIP+ vs. LHB)
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Another Yankees and Red Sox series. I remember how fun those were when I was a kid before I grew up to realize that none of this stuff matters all that much. The individualism of our culture and how often guys get traded and move around to different teams, I think, has taken away from the heat of some of these team rivalries. Ryan Yarbrough and Garrett Crochet got on these teams like yesterday. They’re not going be out there in fisticuffs throwing old bald men to the ground like Pedro Martinez would be.
Let’s look at Ryan Yarbrough quickly. For brevity’s sake, I’m going to be mostly just citing JA ERA and WHIP+. That’s overly reductive, maybe, but those two stats do a nice job to cover all of the bases. JA ERA is a good single number to tell you how good someone is, and WHIP+ will tell you how hard a guy has been hit (it’s a measure of total bases allowed per inning. Anything over two is bad, and as you get toward 2.50 it’s really, really bad).
→ Overall: 3.43 JA ERA, 1.89 WHIP+
→ vs. RHB: 3.66 JA ERA, 2.13 WHIP+
→ vs. LHB: 2.92 JA ERA, 1.47 WHIP+
Yarbrough is tough on lefties, but has never really figured out righties. He’s been non-awful at it this year, though. He does have a good changeup (19% SwStr% vs. RHB). So maybe he can survive this. The Red Sox have a roster where they can stack righties, and they’re projected to have seven of them in there tonight. Guys like Refsnyder, Toro, and Romy Gonzalez get in there against lefties. And none of them are great hitters, but it does downgrade Yarb a bit since he won’t have more than a couple of lefties to take advantage of.
My favorite play has to be MLB DW 2025 poster boy Ceddanne Rafaela. He has a .378 xwOBA against lefties this year and overall has just been pretty good at getting the good part of the bat to the ball (.336 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 20% K% on the year). No way we can touch Yarbrough in DFS.
Garrett Crochet though. He’s at $10,800 in this tough matchup with the Yanks. He faced them last time and gave up five earned runs on six hits, but had a 9:1 K:BB. It might hurt him a bit that the Yankees just saw him last week. But I’m not getting against Gary Crotch-it. The strikeout line is out of control, though, 8+ strikeouts is -155. I’m inclined toward that under 8.5 for -150. But it’s probably just hands off. Crochet leads the slate in projected points by a good margin (21.5 projected points, second on the slate is Gavin Williams is at 19.9).
It’s an interesting question on the DFS side. It’s tough to pay that much for a pitcher in a not-great matchup. But there aren’t many great options on the board tonight, so maybe we have to lean into it. We’ll cover that at the end.
Plays
Crochet Over 18.5 Outs +150 on FanDuel
Yarbrough Under 5.5 Hits -120 on MGM
Red Sox righties vs. Yarbrough