MLB DW Slate Preview - June 17
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Props
Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 Strikeouts -145
Pfaadt takes on a contact-heavy Blue Jays lineup here on the road. The Jays projected lineups aggregates to a 20.7% K%, one of the lower marks you’ll typically see. We know how much trouble he has with lefties, and the Jays will likely load up with at least five lefties. Pfaadt has just a 19% K% against lefties and has been knocked around pretty good by them. He’s also just generally been bad this year with a 12.3% K-BB% and a 3.87 JA ERA. His last five starts, he’s struck out: 4, 2, 5, 0, and 3. He is not in good form, and this is a very tough spot for strikeouts.
JP Sears Under 1.5 Walks -180
I’m projecting Sears for just one walk in this spot against the Astros. He’s typically been throwing around 80 pitches, so he’s not out there for very long. The Astros are likely to roll out nine righties against him. Sears struggles against righties, but it’s not because he gives away a bunch of free passes. He’s walked just 6.5% of righties he’s face din his last 202 innings against them.
Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Steals +650
When I first saw this price I thought it was nuts. Edwards stole 31 bags in 303 PAs last year, and he’s got 11 through 250 PAs this year. He’s a base-stealer. The reason this price has gone up to +650, I think, is because he has not stolen a base since returning from the IL. But he still has a 9% attempt rate in that time, so he hasn’t shut down the running game. The matchup for the Marlins is with Jesus Luzardo tonight. Luzardo can be tough, as we’ve seen a lot this year. But we’ve also seen the flip side of Luzardo when he loses the command and gets smoked. Even when he’s in good form, he’s not great at preventing the walk. +650 on a steal from Edwards is just too high of a price to pass up on.
Spencer Schwellenbach Under 1.5 Walks -150
Schwelly will take on the Mets tonight. This is a big matchup for him. It might not be his best outing, but the guy does not walk many hitters, so we can feel okay about this part of it. His BB% since last year is 45.1%. Against righties it’s 2.4%, and against lefties it’s 5.7%. The presence of Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo (guys who do not swing) does raise walk projections, but not enough in this case to justify this prop. I have Schwelly for 1.2 walks, and that makes this -150 line perfectly fine (+6% value which is above the threshold where we’ve been profitable this year).
Cal Quantrill Under 1.5 Walks +120
Another walk prop that is above the positive ROI threshold. I don’t think the outing will go well for Quantrill. He’s up against the Phillies, and he’s not a good pitcher. But the model has him for just 1.6 walks, which makes getting +120 slightly positive in the EV department.
Homers
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +550
Ketel Marte +500
James Wood +420
DFS Preview
Pitchers
Robbie Ray ($10,300) vs. Guardians
Ray struggled in Coors Field last time out. But we can forgiev him for that, right? Prior to that, he had piled up 41 strikeouts in five starts. He’s been phenemonal this year with a 28% K% and a 10% BB% with a 0.66 HR/9. He’s not the safest ace you’ll ever run into, but we have to be feeling pretty good about him here in this matchup.
Will Warren ($7,500) vs. Angels
This is one of the model’s favorite plays of the year. And that’s making me pretty nervous. Warren had a run of dominance that ended a few starts ago, and outside of that stretch he’s been… spotty at best. The season K% is still up there at 28.6%, but it comes with a 10.5% BB% and 50% hard hit rate against. He’s not safe. But the strikeout ability in this matchup has the projections lighting up. He projects for the second-most points behind Ray, and his 2.55x value projection is lapping the field. His lack of command makes him a risk. But the ceiling is sky-high for a guy at this price.