MLB DW Slate Preview - June 20
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
Friday! The best day for baseball. It’s a beautiful thing for me. Especially in the summer. I’ll be cutting the grass and then taking the kids to the pool and eating dinner and then after the kids are all in bed sitting down to watch some baseball. So let’s make our baseball watching more enjoyable tonight with some analysis of the stuff we think is going to happen tonight.
Pitcher Spotlights
Didier Fuentes
We have a 20-year-old debuting tonight for the Braves. His name is Didier Fuentes.
The kid started the year in A+ and has made just one AAA start. But he’ll get the call tonight. He throws a 95-97mph fastball in conjunction with a curveball. The minor league numbers are, of course, stellar. He’s the Braves’ #10 prospect. He was born in 2005. I was entering high school when this guy was born. We’re getting to that age, aren’t we? Here’s the MLB scouting report.
My projection on him is pretty aggressive.
80 pitches, 5.1 IP, 4.62 SO, 1.89 BB, 2.2 ER
He is not playable on DraftKings (DFS), but I think sometimes they add guys late. But I do think that means we won’t be getting the $4000 price, so he can be easily ignored, I think.
As far as the betting lines go, DraftKings has him for about 4.25 strikeouts (4+ is -170, 5+ is +115). So that gives you some idea of what we’re thinking.
Hunter Brown
The biggest projection of the night comes in on Brown here against the Angels. The Halos are still striking out an absolute ton, and Brown has his season K% above 30% this year. It’s a great spot for him, and the projection model has him leading the way by a good margin, as we’ll see.
Jacob Misiorowski
The Brewers flame-thrower had his second career start pushed back because of rain on Wednesday. But that is good for him, as the matchup shifted from being against the Cubs to being against the Twins. The Twins aren’t exactly a roll-over offense, but they aren’t near the competence level of the Cubs.
Here’s a reminder on how Mizzy attacked in his first outing:
Lots of sliders to righties, lots of fastballs to lefties. And his fastball is really something special, but he doesn’t always locate it. So I think the range of outcomes is pretty wide here. I do think he’s a 3-4 strikeout floor guy with how hot that heater is.
Those are the three most interesting guys of the night to me. Let’s move forward.
Projection Powered Props
George Kirby Over 1.5 Walks +215
I think I’ll get this post in before 2:00 in time for this Wrigley game. Kirby’s command hasn’t been there this year in the same way we’re used to. He already has three starts above 1.5 walks. He did that just four times all year last year. His walk rate is up to 6.4%, and the ball rate is up almost two points from last year. The Cubs are a high-walk offense, so the model really likes this +215 mark for just a pair of walks.
Hunter Brown Strikeouts
The model’s favorite is the big one. Over 8.5 for +225. But I’m not sure I’ve exactly tuned that math correctly for the different lines and stuff. I don’t think I can properly use poisson for all the lines and have it be the best way. The point is that the JA model has Brown for 8.7 strikeouts tonight, a massive number. FanDuel thinks he’s about at seven strikeouts. FanDuel gives you +122 for over 7.5.
MacKenzie Gore Strikeouts
The Nationals take on the Dodgers. This will be a test for Gore. But we can get over 6.5 strikeouts for +168 on FanDuel. The model likes that idea a lot. My projection is 6.9 strikeouts.
The Dodgers are great. They make you work, they hit homers, and they have very few weak spots. The one thing they aren’t super-elite at is striking out. They have a 12.2% SwStr% and a 21.2% K% against lefties this year. Both of those numbers are right around the league average. So we shouldn’t be vastly downgrading strikeout projections against them.