MLB DW Slate Preview - June 26
My rundown of today's MLB slate, including full projections and analysis for each game
We have a pretty great day slate here, so let’s get into it. There is one game with weather issues. It sounds like the Mariners and Twins game is in trouble. So we’ll have to tip-toe around that one. Everything else should be fine.
Projection-Powered Props
Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 Strikeouts -145
I hope those of you who play these went for the one strikeout on Jones last night. He struck out in his first at bat but never got the second. The better line again today is over 1.5 for +450. Which is even crazier than yesterday when we got +360. The Athletics do have a lower K% pitcher on the board today (Jeffrey Springs). But Springs does have thats nasty changeup that gives righties fits, so I’m going back to the well here.
Dietrich Enns Over 4.5 Strikeouts +150
We have ourselves a Major League debut! Enns in the minors this year:
14 GS, 62.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 26.7% K%, 5.6% BB%
He posted a 2.81 JA ERA down there with a 14.5 SwStr%.
My model is a bit higher on his strikeout ability than DraftKings, so it likes the over 4.5 for the nice +150 payout. I don’t ever want to recommend these lines too hard, because we just don’t have much information. There have been many cases of a guy with high K% in AAA not coming anywhere close to it in the Majors. But I’m giving you what the model likes.
Enns features a four-seamer, a cutter, and a changeup. It’s pretty heavy fastball usage between those two variations, but if he tunnels them asll that could work just fine.
The best thing in his profile is the 33% Ball%. That is very low for the AAA level. So I would feel better about his MLB BB% than I would for most first-timers. DraftKings doesn’t have any BB lines right now, so we can’t do anything with that.
I’ll put a little on this +150 but won’t be surprised if it fails horribly.
Grant Holmes Over 2.5 Walks +130
Holmes has an 11.1% BB% on the year now and it’s at 13.8% in June. The Mets have plenty of guys that like to get their steps in. The model is all over this one. I project him for 3.2 walks tonight.
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts -110
Junk’s workload has come up lately as the Marlins are scuffling a bit for competent starting pitching. He threw a season-high 79 pitches last time out against the Braves and struck out five on a 58.2% Strike%. He has a 12.6% SwStr% and a 23% K% on the year. He’s throwing at on fo strikes with a 28.9% Ball% and a 1.8% BB%.
The low walks don’t help the strikeout stuff, but they can help him get into another inning since he’s not wasting many pitches off the plate. The projection is 4.6 strikeouts here.