MLB DW Slate Preview - June 26
Building for DFS cash/single entry plus various other thoughts on the slate
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It’s a 13-gamer tonight boys! That’s about as many as we can get since they’ve started doing a lot of these 6:40 start times on the East Coast the last few years. I’m still not sure why they do that. It was a 7:05pm eastern start time EVERY TIME for the Pirates when I was a kid.
I remember those magnetic schedules you’d get for your fridge, or the paper printout thing they’d give you. With the grid and all of the start times. Some nostalgia there. That took me to the WAY BACK MACHINE to see what the Pirates web site looked like in 2005:
SEVEN OH FIVE! Let’s bring it back.
Actually, it’s kinda nice not having 15 games to go through on a Friday night.
But there’s a lot to cover with 26 pitchers available to us and 234 hitters that will be in starting lineups. We should come out of this with a lot of confidence in the lineup we’re rolling with.
Weather
It’s yellow everywhere. You’ll just have to click that link and see it for yourself. Seems like we could have some delays and some wet spots during games, but no imminent PPDs. I’ll keep that page open just to break SP ties with. If we have two guys with about the same projection but one of them has a potential rain delay, we’ll adjust decide accordingly.
Game Info
TOP IMPLIED RUN TOTALS
Twins vs. COL [Sugano]
Orioles vs. WSH [Alvarez]
Brewers vs. CHC [Rea]
Rays vs. ARI [Gallen]
Phillies at NYM [Myers]
White Sox vs. KC [Kolek]
Athletics at LAA [Urena]
The biggest differentials from implied vs. season average:
The Twins are not in Coors, but the markets think they’ll do just fine at Sugano. The splits on Sugano:
Pretty much equal! And it’s possible that the big outfield in Coors has helped him in the home run department. That could also be randomness, but look at the difference there. 14%-15% Brl% in both spots, nine homers on the road vs. five at home. We can confidently use some Twins bats.
The Phillies take on Tobias Myers and then the Mets bullpen. Myers has been in the 40’s for his pitch counts, so he’s covering 2-3 innings and then letting the bullpen take over. The Phillies have not been reliable for offense this year, but they made a ton of noise against the Nationals bullpen this week. They do not have it like that tonight as the Mets have the #9 bullpen on the slate. They’re without Austin Warren and Brooks Raley, but still have a few really nasty relievers to use late if they’re in the lead. So I don’t love the Phillies.
The Rangers get Patrick Corbin. And that lineup has been doing a much better job. They returned Corey Seager to the lineup and destroyed Gausman last night (Seager wasn’t part of that, but him being back is a huge boost). They have a team .740 OPS in June. It’s really not a bad lineup:
The bottom three suck (many such cases), but away from that disaster park in Texas against Corbin is NICE. I love those prices, too. Langford, Jung, Duran, and Burger are going to stand out, I think.
Langford’s probably a lock at $4K, but we’ll see what we’re dealing with.
The Orioles face Andrew Alvarez, who has been pretty decent. But the Nationals bullpen, man.
Let’s look quickly at Alvarez first:
Those are solid numbers in a small sample. But he’s no stud, and nobody expected him to be this good, and he’s typically throwing like 75 pitches. So the Orioles will get some looks at a Nats bullpen which ranks dead last.
So you might not love where you’re at after the 5th inning, but that’s a nine-inning affair. Fear not.
The Rays are a half of a run above their season average against Gallen. They’re hitting .270/.342/.427 at home this year. Their team K% is around 19%. Outside of Caminero, they threaten very little in the home run department, but they get on base a ton and score points that way.
The main offenses I’m seeing here for price-related plays are MIN, TEX, BAL, and TB.
But let’s start by finding our best two SPs.
Pitchers
Usually this is where I’d put the paywall, but it’s FREE CONTENT FRIDAY. So it’s all free. Check out the web app with password “friday” to get it all for yourself today.
Let’s analyze these cash options. I’m certainly not going to write about 26 guys, we’ll look at the guys the projections are suggesting might be viable.
MISIOROWSKI $13K vs. CHC
That’s a $13,000 tag for Misiorowski. Sheesh! So you want at least 30 points. But he’s given you that in eight of his last nine, with a 40 ball and a 56 ball mixed in there.
Does the matchup really matter if you’re piping 103? OF COURSE IT DOES. The matchup always matters, don’t be silly. The projections take it into account, and we end up with a 26-point projection on the Miz. that’s a 2.06 value, which wouldn’t be a disaster. I’m open to it.
JT GINN $7.7K vs. LAA
Ginn has some wild home/road splits:
I’m not buying the 29% K% thing, that’s fake. He’s not that kind of guy. But imagine he’s truly at 26% K% on the road. If that’s true, he’s a super mega ultra smash play tonight at $7,700 for this elite matchup in Anaheim.
And the projections are all about it. He’s the #2 raw projection! The #1 value, of course! There you go, you could almost stop here and just lock in Mizzy + Ginn and feel pretty good about it.
WHEELER $11K vs. NYM
The Mets have a .667 OPS against right-handed pitching this year. Wheeler has a 29% K%, a 7% BB%, and a .258 xwOBA allowed over his last seven starts. He’s $2,000 less than Mizz, but yeah he’s eight points lower in projection and his value projection is bad at 1.7x.
Maybe I’m under-projecting him, but I can’t say I’m comfortable with that price on Wheeler. I think he’s off the list.
TAJ BRADLEY $7,600 vs. COL
The Rockies have held their own on the road, but they still struggle. There’s a history in the data of them being particularly bad in their first game of a road trip. That’s held up this year:
Those are very bad numbers. This is a terrific spot for Bradley at the cheap price. But it hasn’t been so good for him:
His last five starts:
I’m not so sure about it, man! He’s definitely cash viable. The projection gives him a 2.3x value. Pairing him with Ginn gives you plenty of upside at a really low cost (those two together are $15,300 - just $2,300 more than Misioroski himself). That’s tempting, and it’s something I’ll consider.
The game is all about price. And this is a great spot for Bradley who is the #2 projected ownership pitcher. And I kinda like embracing some ownership in cash. Gives you some outs if the pitcher fails. If Bradley blows up, you’re not out of it, because 40% of the field is going down with you.
PAYTON TOLLE $8.8K vs. NYY
There’s no way this is a cash play at $8.8K. But the ceiling he has is worthy of a tourney play. I think he’s throwing too many strikes. He’s in the zone a ton with his four-seamer. And it’s a really good four-seamer, but he needs to throw more curves for chases to really pile up strikeouts, and we’ve seen his K% end up in the low 20s.
Not for cash, but a guy I like for tourneys at super low ownership.
WALBERT URENA $8.3K vs. ATH
I’m definitely not going here. It’s in LA, which is very good news, and Urena keeps the ball on the ground. But the A’s are tough on righties and Urena doesn’t offer the same kind of strikeout upside as other guys in this price range.
ANDREW ALVAREZ $6.5K vs. BAL
He’s got an 11:1 K:BB in his last two and the Nationals pretty much have to let this guy pitch tonight. Their bullpen was mega destroyed against the Phillies this week, including last night.
It’s a tourney play only, but I think he’s sneaky at $6.5K against a team in Baltimore that doesn’t hit lefties well at all.
DAVID SANDLIN $5.7K vs. KC
Good minor league pitcher, got thumped a few times in the Majors earlier this year. But this is a super low price tag for a good matchup, and he did get 14 strikeouts in 13.1 innings in his three MLB starts.
His MLB pitch mix data:
Lots of pitches to throw at guys, nice velo on the four-seamer. I think he could smash this price tag.
OTHER TOURNEY OPTIONS
Roki Sasaki $8.0K vs. SD
Trevor Rogers $6.3K vs. WSH
Luis Castillo $6.9K vs. CLE
None of them project well in these matchups, and they all have very, very low floors. But I could see them all having good results.
If we run a bunch of lineups with a 70% cap at exposure and 10% projection variance, here’s what we get:
The cash duo should come from those first three. Misiorowski/Ginn/Bradley. And we’ll let the hitters decide if we can get to Mizz.
Hitters
We are going to sort by VALUE and start with the “bottom up build”, picking the best player(s) at each position based on salary and projection. And then we’ll upgrade where we want to when the first draft is done.
CATCHERS
This is such a huge slate, man. You’re going to see more plays in this section than usual.
We have to be particular tonight. I don’t want to spend money on Baldwin, for example, because he’s in San Francisco. He’s the top projected guy, but it’s not right for the price. So we’ll focus on the best value marks, mostly.
William Contreras $4,500: Rea’s bad, the Cubs bullpen is bad, and the Brewers are at home. Not a very high ceiling for Contreras, but the floor is nice.
Kyle Teel $3,000: Just 9 PAs into his season, and the price is CHEAP against Stephen Kolek. He’s the #1 value, and I love the play.
Victor Caratini $3,000: There’s a cheap Twin for this great spot against Colorado.
Those are the top three viable values. And I think that’s where I’ll land.
FIRST BASE
Josh Bell $2,600: He’s had a nice season from the left side of the plate where he’ll be tonight. He’s a viable punt play.
Andres Chaparro $2,000: Against Trevor Rogers. Chaparro is a platoon bat, but I think he’ll get pinch hit for late.
Pavin Smith $2,400: Eventually he’s going to make some noise against a righty. But I don’t think it’s good enough for me tonight.
Kyle Manzardo $2,900: Good spot for the Guardians against Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ only bad pitcher. But a very low floor since he does nothing besides hit a homer every once in awhile.
Royce Lewis $3,600: Another Twin to consider, but a bad hitter overall, we think.
Shohei Ohtani $6,500: Buehler has pitched okay lately, and this game’s in San Diego. Not an elite spot for Ohtani, but I want to give you some of the high-upside plays along the course here.
Jonathan Aranda $4,100: Good spot for the Rays against Gallen, who SUCKS. I like Aranda for cash.
Josh Bell is what the projections are telling us to do. Huge 3.65x value on him in this spot as a clean-up man against Sugano.
SECOND BASE
This is gross tonight.
Brice Turang $5,500: He’s over-priced, but the Brewers should score some runs against this Cubs pitching staff, and Turang is one of the best at the position.
Travis Bazzana $4,600: That’s too high of a price. Just a 1.9x value, but he’s the sixth-highest projection on the board and I like the Guardians a little bit tonight against Castillo.
Anthony Seigler $2,300: Maybe we just want to punt it. My model likes him more than The Bat X does, and we don’t have much of an MLB sample on him. He’s probably hitting #7, but we’ll have to see. He’s probably not good enough for me, but the punt at this gross position makes some sense.
SHORTSTOP
Colson Montgomery $4,200: Pretty good price for a guy with this amount of power against a hittable (most of the time) pitcher in Kolek.
Tristan Gray $2,400: He doesn’t look like an MLB everyday player, but the matchup with Sugano & Rockies bullpen is great. He has some power, he pulls the ball in the air a ton (21%), so he is a legitimate very cheap dinger threat.
Corey Seager $4,500: Haven’t seen any Rangers popping up yet, but I like the little discount we get on Seager tonight - although he doesn’t have the platoon advantage.
Bobby Witt Jr. $6,100: Big price against a lefty, so I like that. But the model doesn’t like him at all with a 1.5x value.
Otto Lopez $4,300: The Marlins are in a good spot against McGreevy. Lopez has been a hit machine, so his floor is decent. I like him a lot, but Montgomery has so much more ceiling at $100 less.
Why can’t any of these infielders hit bro?
THIRD BASE
Junior Caminero $5,700: Three homers last night, so that might raise the ownership a little bit. He’s the runaway guy in ceiling, but the price is way up there. You really need a dinger from him for it to work.
Colson Montgomery $4,200: Dual eligibility for Montgomery here.
Anthony Seigler $2,300
Curtis Mead $5,000: Can’t believe we’re getting a $5K tag on Mead, but he’s got a .500 SLG against lefties this year and he’s up against Trevor Rogers tonight.
Miguel Vargas $4,400: Little bit of a discount on Vargas as he’s “struggled” lately. He has just a .790 OPS in June, but a still extremely high .480 xwOBA. Great tourney option there, and the Montgomery + Vargas mini-stack makes a lot of sense for the correlation.
OUTFIELD
Values:
Top Projections:
Byron Buxton $5,900: We like the guys with 11+ point projections and 2x+ values. I think Buxton is a priority tonight as the best hitter on the Twins in this near season-best spot for them.
Sam Antonacci $3,700: The White Sox are popping up a lot today. But Stephen Kolek has a few gems on his record. Of course, he gave up NINE runs last time and has a bad 10.8% K-BB% with a 1.4 HR/9 this year. So yeah, I like the White Sox.
Jackson Chourio $5,400: A Brewer stud to pair with Contreras if you’re going there. Nice 10.4-point projection for Chourio, good for a decent 1.9x value against Rea + Cubs bullpen.
Kody Clemens $4,200: He’s projected to be in #3 spot for the Twins.
Wyatt Langford $4,000: I love the Langford spot against Corbin on the road as the lead-off man who has been swinging it extremely well since he got back from the IL.
Wilyer Abreu $4,400: Lefties love facing Will Warren. Good spot for Abreu here as maybe the only decent lefty bat on the Red Sox right now.
We need some help from the optimizer to find these plays to lock in.
We’re just all over Antonacci, Bell, and Buxton. I’m thinking of buying into the White Sox.
BUT that’s a weather spot:
YELLOW - Another annoying game where it will rain, but I’m not certain if they will just play through the rain or if it will be problematic (light rain is always that way). We’ll need to keep our eyes on things pregame to see if they have a tarp on or if they are warming up and planning on playing it wet.
This slate is tougher than I thought it’d be.
Let’s not worry about the weather now… here’s what I’ve put together.
I couldn’t get to Misiorowski, although I did try. And I’m perfectly fine not having a $13K pitcher in my lineup.
The guys I locked in at first:
Ginn
Teel
Bell
Antonacci
Buxton
Langford
And the rest came together, we’re able to get to Turang + Caminero with the Bradley play instead of Mizz.
I like that one. If the White Sox weather goes south, we’d have to bail on Montgomery & Antonacci. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
I’m releasing this one now, I’ll throw some betting stuff into another post. Trevor is out for a little while now as he’s traveling, so I’ll take over the daily slip and get some betting action in there.
Mitch Spence is starting, not Kolek. Even better.