MLB DW Slate Preview - June 30
A close look at the DFS slate for June 30th
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Lowwww scoring night last night. I cashed in the double ups and split the head-to-head like 60/40 or something. We were right on the cash line, basically. But a win’s a win, even if it’s not a true double up.
The Ryan Weathers play busted and the Cubs/Padres game didn’t go big like the weather said it would. I guess there’s a real lesson there for tourneys. The people flock to those Wrigley winds game, and the winds are unpredictable and dependent on guys actually hitting the ball in the air. I’ve been fading those spots in tourneys when I’ve come across them, and I’ll continue to do that when the ownership looks like it’s going to be really high.
So let’s chop it up again tonight!
Weather
Another hot and dry day in America. My in-laws live like 200 yards away and have a sweet in-ground pool, so the summer is awesome for us. We get to go to the pool and sit around and the kids can tire themselves out and have a bunch of fun. This is truly the way to live. Have a pool really close by that isn’t yours so you don’t have to manage it.
It’s like 80-95 degrees everywhere. Phenomenal hitting weather. Probably a good day to trot out some of those big home run parlays. The super juiced up spots:
PIT/PHI: 85 degrees, 11mph winds out
CWS/BAL: 86 degrees, 12mph winds out
TEX/CLE: 94 degrees, 9mph winds out
DET/NYY: 85 degrees, 11mph winds out
WSH/BOS: 80 degree, 14mph winds out
SD/CHC: 89 degrees, 15mph winds out
You’ll see that in the game totals.
SD/CHC: 11.5
MIA/COL: 11.5
LAD/ATH: 11
BAL/CWS: 10.5
TB/KC: 10
Implied Total
Another 12-game slate on this fine Tuesday. We’re going to start sorting this thing by the new IMPLIED MINUS AVERAGE column.
Marlins +2.28
Cubs +2.11
Dodgers +1.62
Red Sox +1.18
Padres +1.14
Back to the Marlins and Cubs today by this measure.
It’s JP Sears for the Padres against the Cubs. Sears had a decent first start, but he’s been buried in AAA all year for a good reason. He’s a fly ball heavy pitcher, which doesn’t bode well for him. He’s left-handed, in case you didn’t know that. Great spot for the fly ball hitting Cubs, it would seem.
The Marlins get Tanner Gordon. He’s thrown 109 innings the last two years with a 19% K% and a 5% BB% with a .360 xwOBA allowed. It’s another elite, elite spot for the fish, who did come through for us last night with ten runs.
The Rockies take on Eury Perez on the other side of that one. That gives you some pause, because Eury’s stuff is really good. It’s worse with the elevation, and he didn’t get many swings and misses in his first start off the IL. So it probably won’t go well for him, but he’s capable of limiting the damage in this one. The projection is around 80 pitches, so the Rockies will get some of the Marlins bullpen which ranks #29/30 tonight.
The Dodgers are back in Sacramento and get to face Jeffrey Springs this time, and that’s why you see the much higher implied total tonight than last night. Springs has a big problem with righties, he’s a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t get many strikeouts. So he’s not going to have much success in Sutter Health Park, or whatever it’s called.
Boston takes on Cade Cavalli. I like Cavalli, as you know, so I’m not pumped about going to the Red Sox here. But we talked about the weather there, and Cavalli has given up homers this year. I just don’t like the Red Sox lineup to use them against pitchers who we think are decent.
And then the Padres, who let us down last night, get a crack at Matthew Boyd. Boyd just has one start after hitting the IL, and he was wild in that one, but still did get an 18.4% SwStr%. He has been very good this year with a 21% K-BB%. But he can give up some fly balls and the home run potential is there for the cheap Padres bats. I don’t hate Tatis/Machado, but the Padres aren’t a priority for me today.
The stacks to use:
Cubs vs. Sears
Marlins vs. Gordon
Dodgers vs. Springs
Twins vs. Burrows (lower ownership)
Mariners vs. Soriano (lower ownership)
I can also get behind:
D’Backs vs. Roupp (in ARI)
Brewers vs. Lowder
It’s going to be a big offensive night in all likelihood, so it shouldn’t be too hard to find some bombs in your lineup.
Let’s switch over to finding our pitchers and then we’ll go position-by-position to find the best plays.
Pitchers
Well we have a clear top two once again. And, in fact, it’s from the same games as last night.
Bryan Woo ($9,000) vs. LAA: 22.4 point projection, 2.5x value
Tarik Skubal ($10,000) vs. NYY: 22.2 point projection, 2.2x value
Skubal hasn’t been spectacular in the box score since getting back from the injury, but the whiffs and the velo and everything else is there. And the Yankees are just bad right now offensively.
Let’s hit the paywall and then I’ll show you the projections.