MLB DW Slate Preview - March 28
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Jon’s DFS Preview
The first slate of the year didn’t go my way, which is terrible, and I hated it. But we’re going to win today.
Pitchers
There are surprisingly few aces available for us today. So the pool of solid pitcher plays is pretty shallow.
Jeffrey Springs ($7,500) vs. Mariners: He’s my top projected pitcher for this slate, and he’s just $7,500. The guy is solid, and the Mariners strike out an absolute ton. I don’t feel fantastic about it, because Springs doesn’t have overpowering stuff and we haven’t seen a ton of him lately, but I’ll trust the projections here and take him.
Luis Castillo ($8,300) vs. Athletics: On the other side of Springs is Castillo. It will be interesting to see what he has this year, because we’ve gotten a pretty mixed bag of results from him of late. The Athletics aren’t necessarily an offense to target specifically this year, but I’ll stop well short of saying they’re a good offensive unit. Castillo is the #2 projected SP on my board.
Dylan Cease ($9,300) vs. Braves: This is not an ideal matchup for Cease, but he is the best strikeout pitcher on the slate by a good margin. Again, I’d rather not pick on the Braves lineup too much, but the strikeouts that Cease brings to the table will probably be enough to make this work out okay.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,000) vs. Tigers: I love the guy. He looked great in his first start in Japan, and now he gets a home matchup with the middle-of-the-pack Tigers lineup.
Mitch Keller ($7,900) vs. Marlins: I’d say Keller is a pretty safe play here. The guy is solid and is built up for a full workload, and this matchup couldn’t get much better. The ceiling isn’t there, I don’t think, but Keller is on consideration.
I play just one lineup per day in DFS. That’s the most fun way to do it. But it’s tough tonight to drill down to just two pitchers.
My lean right now is the Yamamoto + Springs combination.
Stacks
Dodgers vs. Jack Flaherty: Flaherty is no slouch, but the Dodgers have an elite 1-5, and they’re not terribly expensive to start the year.
Diamondbacks vs. Jameson Taillon: They are implied for 5.4 runs, that’s right there with the Dodgers at the top of the board. Taillon is a hittable pitcher (18% K% last year) who gives up a bunch of fly balls (31%). I think the Snakes have a good shot at knocking a few balls out of the ballpark here. I like the lefties in the Arizona lineup.
Pirates vs. Connor Gillispie: Gillispie was a reliever last year, and not even a very good one (25% K%, 16% BB%). I don’t think he’ll be in there for very long, which is okay, because the Marlins’ bullpen is awful too. The Pirates are in a great spot here, and they’re also pretty cheap.
Blue Jays vs. Charlie Morton: I really don’t think Morton has much left to offer at this point, but I guess we’ll see. The strikeouts aren’t there anymore, and he’s susceptible to some really rough outings.
Cubs vs. Merrill Kelly: Another old pitch-to-contact guy here. I think the Cubs offer a good floor of points against Kelly.
Individual Hitter Plays
More expensive:
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) vs. Flaherty
Oneil Cruz ($4,800) vs. Gillispie
Juan Soto ($6,000) vs. Brown
Jarren Duran ($5,200) vs. Leiter
Corbin Carroll ($5,800) vs. Taillon
Yordan Alvarez ($5,700) vs. Megill
Kyle Tucker ($5,900) vs. Kelly
Values:
Xavier Edwards ($4,000) vs. Keller
Kristian Campbell ($3,300) vs. Leiter
Triston Casas ($3,800) vs. Leiter
Otto Lopez ($2,800) vs. Keller
Gabriel Moreno ($2,900) vs. Taillon
Tommy Pham ($3,600) vs. Gillispie
Ryan Bliss ($3,100) vs. Springs
Jake McCarthy ($2,500) vs. Taillon
Andres Gimenez ($3,500) vs. Morton
I’m pretty sure I’m locking in Oneil Cruz and Tommy Pham to get some of that Pirates lineup. I’m also feeling pretty good about McCarthy and Campbell at those prices. I’ll let you all take it from there!